Okay Estimator

My two core principles in life: 1) No one is coming to save you. 2) Help others however you can. It sounds like there’s tension, but there isn’t. Be radically accountable for everything that happens to you, and make time to serve others. Stay hungry, humble, and helpful.

@usgraphics 100%. And no RGB lights.

Color coded components have an emergent aesthetic which mogs top down desire for certain look IMO. It looks cool + you'll have a better time debugging a problem too. This is my favorite type of aesthetic.

@magnushambleton “But what is the crux?!”

It’s instantly clear within the first 3min of the Dwarkesh Jensen episode that unlike every single other person that is at the center of the singularity, Jensen did not spend his early twenties debating things on LessWrong

On the global RAM shortage. OpenAI pulled out of Stargate because they don’t have the cash. OpenAI bought 40% of forward DRAM output capacity from SK and Samsung, specifically for use on Stargate. So they won’t need all that DRAM anymore? So I can finally buy computers again?

@bennpeifert @OGTaylorB Yes, they are limited to the investment choices offered by your state-specific plan. At this time, there are no states that allow you to buy any ETF. The most flexible plans will offer you a variety of target-date style funds, standalone equity funds, and some bond funds.

@OGTaylorB not that i know

I explained to them that I am a pirate (kids, do you know what a pirate is??) and I take money from banks and give it to schools and hospitals

@mhdempsey You’re absolutely right. It’s the logical extreme of an environment where rounds get done at prices that public markets would never tolerate. Once you raise rounds like that, median outcomes are either to spend 5-10yrs growing into it or tender equity out to a greater fool.

I can't help but wonder if these maybe are the purist form of momentum trades/ponzi games in tech. Fund a $25M SPV in the $1B at $5B knowing another institution will fund $2B at $32B. ($25M now worth ~$149M with dilution). Take another turn or two of ESOP dilution (~$134M position) in a scenario where the momentum doesn't increase over next 12-24 months. Pray a sovereign wealth fund, HNW group at bank, or collection of families picks off your secondary enough to take $50-$100M off the table ($15M of carry at $100M sale on 20%). Have another $34M left to ride.

@KrisAbdelmessih SHOX goes crazy. Best badge I’ve heard.

my real name. And many who even do know my name still call me SHOX (including Tina sometimes) Even my Xbox gamertag is shox da monkey Anyway, random vacation posting. Gonna drink some milk now bye

Personal fact...I developed strong lactose intolerance in adolescence. I went on a hardcore paleo diet (really strict...wife started the recipe site cavemengourmet to document stuff she'd make for me)...after 7 years gradually stopped the strictness...discovered dairy to be ok

@idoccor @macrocephalopod @teddedwood45

@macrocephalopod @teddedwood45 Hey man, did you know you miss 100% of the shots you don't take? Subscribe to my substack for more market insights

There is a reason that Citadel and Virtu pay to trade against you. There is a reason your broker offers you free commissions. There is a reason Robinhood fires confetti every time you trade.

@Citrini7 Long listed PE, short SPY

if you were going to take a guess, what phenomenon would you say this long/short basket is attempting to capture based on its historical performance?

@nope_its_lily Do you reckon it’s because they trade wide and have a relatively low daily range (measured in ticks) compared to ES/GC/6J? I’ve found that futs with a low daily range in ticks are resistant to short-term divergent strategies.

@Quant_Kurtis Sorry mate, not going to sign up for a paid subscription to Portfolio123 to figure out what’s wrong with your model for you. Tried to engage here to help you make your thing better, but you mostly seem interested in pumping a paid sub / spon con. Good luck to you!

@OkayEstimator Equal-weight. 0.98 beta. The model is public and free. You are welcome to follow and dig into it

Are you picking stocks to short in the S&P 500? I consulted for 4-5 years with a short only fund and here is a basic model you can follow. This is an S&P 500 market-neutral (dollar) model. It ranks stocks based on such things as industry and stock momentum including how volatile the moves are. It looks at balance sheet bloat, declining sales trends, negative EPS and sales surprises and more. The gross short alpha is fairly consistent around 8-10% annually since 1999 until today. It will be reduced by whatever the carry costs and other costs might be. That is not included in this model. Any Portfolio123 member can follow this model. I have made it available in a Research Group that anyone can join along with roughly 24 other models I think investors and institutions will find interesting. While you can view the holdings at any time, I have kept the ranking system private in case any institution in the future wishes to use it. The one rule I add which is very important when selling short is as follows: 🔹When the VIX is high, do not short your most volatile stocks which have fallen the hardest. The reason is obvious. --The market crashes. --Junky stocks fall 80% or $10 to $2. --The market bounces and the price goes from $2 - $4 in a heartbeat. For the short-seller, this junky stock bounced 100% from the bottom wiping out your hard-earned gains. Better to short stocks which didn't fall so hard when markets are crashing. Reduce risk of those dreaded margin calls. To follow this model, log into your P123 account. In the header click RESOURCES - RESEARCH GROUPS. Search for 'Hemmerling Models'. In live strategies you'll see one called 'Short 500'. If you are interested in trialing P123, I will post a link where you can book a demo with Dr. Andreas Himmelreich. He's fantastic and the tips he shares during the call is well worth your 45 minutes. I will post what to do in the first comment.

@Quant_Kurtis Great! Now we’re working with something more useful. You’ve got 31 positions on right now, and let’s assume 1 of them is short SPY 100% notional. So 30 shorts. What are you short right now? Equal weight? And what is the weighted average beta of those shorts?

@OkayEstimator The volatility during crashes and rebounds reduces the CAGR a little but that's the only time the VIX rule even comes into play.

@Quant_Kurtis Do you have a screenshot?

@OkayEstimator Very similar CAGR but more drawdown and volatility at the bull rally after a crash.

@Quant_Kurtis I’ll be a bit more direct. Let’s assume most of your OP was marketing fluff and what you’ve built here is a weekly rebalancing system that’s short some SPX constituents against the index. What is the performance of this strategy *without* your magic market timing model?

@Quant_Kurtis I’m confused. Your screenshot says universe is SPX, but your OP talks about junk stocks rallying 100%. What is the universe in your backtest screenshot? Let’s suspend disbelief and say it’s SPX only. Natural next question is the magic VIX rule you’re using. How does that work?

@EffMktHype Binary. Continuous systems resist overfitting by forcing you to express your signal as an f(x, ...). Anyone who has enough maths to overfit an ensemble of continuous input signals has enough maths/stats to know why it’s a terrible idea.

Here's a question for the systematic crowd: In general, do you think the dangers of overfitting are more severe for a continuous or binary system?

@bennpeifert It is the Nigerian Prince scam. A mark will self-select into the con by demonstrating a willingness to believe it is real.

If someone tells you they did technical analysis on hyper liquid indices and currencies and they show you a backtest that looks like this, its not worth your time to look at it and figure out what's wrong, just ignore them

@bennpeifert How does he watch the TV when it’s behind him?

WE ARE SO BACK jamescordier.com

@JaredKubin It won’t remove the struggle of research. Our kids research and learn more efficiently. They’ll grapple with novel problems, not the minutiae of info retrieval. Think about Books -> Computers. Are we dumber/softer because we don’t use the Dewey decimal system every day? No.

I wonder what the impact of LLM AI on my kids is going to be. On one hand never before has “knowledge” been so accessible. The optionality of the future grows exponentially. On the other hand it completely removes the struggle of research, creativity to find solutions, and indirectly lose lessons in perseverance, among other things. I personally have learned those lessons long before LLMs came around so I get best of both worlds. My kids won’t. Do the benefits to society outweigh the complete painful social shift coming the next 50 years?

@ScottPh77711570 Imagine seeing that chart and thinking “user growth is slowing down”

- TVL at ATH - Best performing coin in the recent crash - User growth on track to overtake Bybit in 3 months and Binance in 9m - User base is sticky. They use it once and keep clicking -No KYC perps for US customers is huge