OrbitWinder

Reindustrializing America requires a deep cultural shift. For decades, we’ve told kids that “real success” is going to college and finding a job in the knowledge economy. Unfortunately, society in the United States began to look down on the skilled trades, workers in factories, and those engaged in manual labor. And now we are paying the price. Reviving manufacturing in the United States means we have to restore pride in trades, honor machinists, welders, and factory workers as much as we do for software engineers, lawyers, doctors, and finance professionals. This culture shift is what I am dedicating myself to, because it’s the most important component of the value key chain in reindustrializing.

@HayekAndKeynes A long way to go before we are back to all time highs

This bounce only took S&P back to the 10d moving average

Oracle $ORCL is laying off 30,000 employees, and is looking to deploy more capital towards its AI initiatives. Shares are up 4.5%. Wall Street rewards companies becoming more efficient and like other tech companies, Oracle over hired during the pandemic.

@KobeissiLetter It’s going to take time for the market to recover. One thing is clear though: equities and oil both can’t trade higher in lock step. One of them had to sell off violently.

Unprecedented algorithmic activity: Oil prices just fell -5% in 3 minutes after Iran's President said they are ready to end the war with "guarantees." Yet, the demanded "guarantees" are largely unknown right now. Over $1 trillion in market cap was driven by this headline in a matter of minutes as algorithms ran with the news. We expect to receive more details on these guarantees shortly. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter to receive it first.

It’s great to see $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, and $BTC well off their morning lows. However, there is still a long way to go before we return to all times highs. Energy prices need to come down, but that’ll take a couple of months at a minimum. Next, we need an enduring resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. Again, this will also take time to iron out and implement. The back half of 2026 could see a strong performance across equities and risk on assets more broadly, but some of these deeper issues need to be resolved.

This is one company I am watching closely. Moving goods from industrial corridors to customers needs to be cost effective and efficient. Maritime + rail transportation will ensure the U.S. dominates.

@TheStalwart Very interesting what is going on the market. Both going up on the same time is rare, it’s just a matter of time until they diverge.

Interesting to see stocks hold such solid gains on another big up day for oil

@TheStalwart More of my thoughts:

@TheStalwart Absolute steal. Allbirds is still a well known brand and has a great product. The turnaround is going to be incredible.

Allbirds just sold for $39 million. The company was once worth over $4 billion. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Is this the end of the DTC Era? SmileDirectClub filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2023. Casper initially went public but then sold to PE after struggling to achieve profitability. Dollar Shave Club was acquired by Unilever for $1B, but it failed to scale profitability and was eventually divested. Care/Of, the popular vitamin brand, was shut down by its parent company, Bayer, in 2024 due to a myriad of funding challenges. And finally, Allbirds, a Silicon Valley DTC darling which was once valued at $4B is now being acquired for $39M. The DTC business model is unforgiving.

@JTLonsdale @Saronic @8vc Reviving American Shipbuilding is one of the single most important things we need to do for the United States. We’re a maritime Nation and our economy relies on shipping.

In WWII, USA built 18,000 ships in 1943.  Today, we're lucky to break 10. But that’s changing.  @Saronic is rebuilding USA’s Freedom's Forge: hundreds, then thousands of autonomous ships, up to 180 ft long.  Proud to have created Saronic out of @8VC & backed them at each step.

@Hedgeye And this also means every single iPhone, computer, IoT device, the global financial system, personal email, etc are all at an even bigger risk to quantum threats.

JUST IN: Google Research says quantum computers are now 20x closer to breaking crypto security.

SpaceX brilliantly applies first principles in every engineering decision they make. The aerospace community thought carbon fiber or aluminum were the future for rocket manufacturing. SpaceX originally thought this as well. Then Elon and his cracked engineering team crunched the numbers, understood physics, and leveraged “first principles” to solve the problem. The solution was in plain sight: stainless steel. It’s a durable product that can withstand incredibly high and super low temperatures. In cryogenic conditions, it beats carbon fiber. To withstand extreme reentry heat, it is far better than aluminum due to its sky high melting point. But the real benefit? It costs pennies on the dollar, unlike carbon fiber. And it’s far easier to weld, repair, and shape. This means SpaceX can prototype iterations in weeks, not months or years. Why over complicate it? SpaceX proves yet again that applying first principles to a problem set will always yield superior results.

@AndrewYang Are they cutting because of AI or using it as a scape goat to correct for over hiring during Covid?

Had dinner with an investor who said this: “I thought you were wrong about AI and jobs. But I’m on the Board of a bunch of companies and every one of them is now cutting staff due to AI. So now I think you’re right.”

@blubbery488204 @TheStalwart Totally understandable, everyone has their own unique tastes and comfort levels

@OrbitWinder @TheStalwart I developed some kind of aversion to wool shoes after owning a few pairs. an ick that never went away

@ngelfond @IsItRainingSF @TheStalwart …90%+ of America

@OrbitWinder @IsItRainingSF @TheStalwart Who buys shoes to wear in the house

@WagieCapital The fact that everyone is bearish. When has the market ever followed the general consensus?

Kinda feels like we’re walking into a perfect storm of: 1) 1970s style oil shock 2) Tech bubble 2.0 unwind 3) Housing price bubble popping 4) Private credit meltdown 5) Labor market collapse 6) Sovereign debt crisis What are the bullish catalysts?

@IsItRainingSF @TheStalwart They are comfortable as heck though, great house shoes

@OrbitWinder @TheStalwart Great product? The shoes are ass ugly

@a16z It’s time we bring back original Apple products. I would love to buy a new iPod Nano or shuffle.

Instacart on an iPhone 4s.

@TheStalwart This is nothing…wait until it is $200/barrel

That Singapore jet fuel chart has just kept going up

@great_martis The absolute nerve on Cramer to make that comment. Good riddance equities, enjoy the selloff

BRACE FOR AN OIL APOCALYPSE OIL to $1,000?

U.S. manufacturing creates and sustains the Nation's economic dominance.