Michael Sullivan

@fletchersolo @iopq @JosephPolitano @oren_cass Here's the ISM PMI where you can see longer timelines. tradingeconomics.com/united-states/…

@iopq @JosephPolitano @oren_cass It shows data from the past 3 years, which as you can see from the filter, the furthest it goes back.

The problem with economists asking for a takesy-backsy on their predictions of tariff doom is that it implies they would have had favorable predictions about the tariffs had they known the full trajectory. Who thinks that, if you had told economists a year ago what was going to happen with tariffs, they would have said "sounds reasonable, growth will probably tick up and inflation down, manufacturing demand and productivity will rise and sentiment will improve"? Did I miss all of the economists who have been saying since June that now the tariff level looks OK? The reality is they missed even on the basic mechanisms: the dollar didn't appreciate; the retaliation didn't occur; the administration successfully leveraged tariffs into favorable deals and commitments. Of course the models spit out the wrong answer. Yes, it's embarrassing for a field when confident predictions fail. But it's way more embarrassing when the reaction of practitioners to the failure is to deny a problem exists.

@MikeJohnsoupdo @mattyglesias Your theory is that five years ago nobody thought we could achieve air superiority against Iran and bomb them?

I know I’m a little hung up on this but the shameless dishonesty of the Iran Hawks who vociferously denied that their preferred alternative to JCPOA was war only to turn around and insist this war was necessary really bothers me.

@thegregchroemer @mattyglesias @theisabelb "A case to be made that a response is needed" is some meta stuff, in the sense that it asserts almost nothing. Sheryl Sandberg is married (and was previously married), and has children, for whatever it's worth.

@mattyglesias @theisabelb There’s a case to be made that a response to the Sheryl Sandbergs of the world is needed. Marriage and family are awesome! Men and women both get more life satisfaction from family compared to work. It’s just public conversation Matt. Nothing to be afraid of.

Perfect example from @theisabelb of what I'm talking about today. Do we think there's a plague of young women rejecting marriage proposals from solid men, and we need to show them this chart so they say "yes" instead? What planet is that? slowboring.com/p/yelling-at-a…

@SuchABadTrader @RichardHanania "I hit my thumb with a hammer" -- a reasonable warning about hammers. "And thus hammers will never be good for anything unless someone somehow makes a hammer that will never hit a thumb." -- you understand this is crazy, right?

@RichardHanania As a lawyer, AI is very wrong very often, and consistently makes things up. If you don't believe me, just google all the lawyers getting sanctioned everywhere.

Narrator: And none of them would answer the question of whether they use the models. I’ve never seen rightists in this much denial about AI. I wonder why it’s a left-wing thing to bury your head in the sand this much.

@lionelbchadwick @mattyglesias Well shit, if a visiting professor to NYU said something once, that must be a big deal. I mean, Texas Railroad Commissioner is pretty small fry, but Bovino was one of the top people at ICE and could put his insane agenda into practice.

@mattyglesias Matt that is very true. But it is the professors on the left that are calling for de*th camps and mass k*lling in the usa foxnews.com/us/professor-w…

Various Republicans keep calling for large-scale deportations of naturalized citizens and perhaps their children.

@SamMarlow695140 @mattyglesias Sure, not everything about the Republican platform is to the right of literally everything in the European right parties. But a great deal of it is.

@mattyglesias What a dumb tweet. Republicans would love to have abortion restrictions comparable to most European countries.

I was talking to a center-right European about why I’m a Democrat and was trying to remind him that all Trump insanity aside, Republicans have ideas about things like health care and abortion that are way too crazy for any European party.

@KeithKopinski @AliceFromQueens A sort of fundamental problem with Congress is that there are lots of incentives to not do anything. It's easier to be in the minority than the majority, and it's easier to be passive and let the executive do things if you're in the majority.

@AliceFromQueens I'll go so far as to say I think they want Dems to at least take the House, if not Senate, so the 49ish remaining can fret less. They want to stop Trump, but dont have the balls or conviction and want to remain Senators. In the minority can worry less and sleep better.

Surprised this needs to be said but nearly all GOP senators *love* their job. Without a seat, they are, as they see it, nobodies. Fear of a primary challenger is the strong force that attaches them to Trump. Ideological convergence is weaker in most cases.

@cia_surveilance @AliceFromQueens Probably confirming his crazy-ass appointees.

@AliceFromQueens How would they turn on him? What issue?

How low do his numbers have to fall before GOP senators turn on him?

@mattyglesias This is basically a map of population change, right?

@adamoliver09 @mattyglesias Correlation/causation.

@mattyglesias Trump won 29 of 36 states with voter ID laws in 2024. Harris won 12 of 14 without them.

@devg_ @godhatesagate @mattyglesias Someone who is 60 today was born in 1965, turned 16 in 1981. In 1990, the dynamic you identify was salient. Today it's not. And for every low-income black voter (reliable Dem) these laws suppress, they also suppress a low-income white voter (reliable GOP).

@godhatesagate @mattyglesias Older blacks (like 60 and over) in the South, especially women, may not have driver's license or passports. Nothing to do with intelligence, just socio-economic reasons. They also may not have the money/transportation in order to 'adjust'

@Ymou5Anon @mattyglesias This is median, not mean, it's not driven by a few people in the tip top of the income distribution. It is certainly theoretically possible that the lowest, say, quintile is diminishing while the median is rising, but in real life that didn't happen.

@mattyglesias Almost like applying a single value to the entire labour market misses the vast inequalities between large groups of labour which are experiencing very different economic conditions. High highs and low lows give you the same average as a dataset closer to the mean.

@circlecrules @mattyglesias This is inflation-adjusted.

@mattyglesias People feel more hopeless when they get a paycheck and see how quickly its consumed by tariff costs, inflation and high fuel prices.

@N0tAnthonyDavis @OtherDavid88 @mattyglesias They do, but that doesn't stop the climate movement from advocating supply-restricting/price-increasing actions all the time.

@OtherDavid88 @mattyglesias Don’t high oil prices encourage long term capital investment in extraction and refining?

@WorldsMostHumb1 @mattyglesias I mean, this is not my view, but it's not inconsistent to say, "This person did something wrong, but this response to that action is also wrong."

@mattyglesias 23% say divorce is morally wrong & 90% say infidelity is morally So the math doesn’t add up because apparently there’s a cohort of people who are simultaneously morally appalled at an unfaithful spouse but ALSO morally appalled that anyone would divorce that unfaithful spouse🤷‍♀️

@iammattduff @mattyglesias I mean, that's probably true, that chart looks like pretty random small fluctuations to me. But it does seem notable that there isn't a big trend: as test results dove way down, parents' opinion stayed approximately the same.

@mattyglesias or perhaps you're drawing conclusions from brownian motion

@AnthonyMeres @RubenGallego @mattyglesias So what you're saying is that this war costs almost as much as five years of foreign aid + the Ukraine war combined? I'm not sure that's the win you think it is.

@RubenGallego @mattyglesias Foreign aid👇🏼

Trump calls $200 billion a “small price to pay” for an illegal war no one wants, yet considers it too expensive for health care, childcare, or kids’ cancer research.

@toellsnemesis @mattyglesias Well, then, I'm happy to have helped your reading comprehension. Feel free to see if he'll respond to you directly, but that is, in fact, the position he's advocating.

@OverCommonName @mattyglesias That's not how I'm reading it

@toellsnemesis @mattyglesias But that was not the position that Matt was advocating. His point is that we should want the war funded, but that we might respectably want Europe to do the funding.

@OverCommonName @mattyglesias One can hold both positions at the same time easily. 1) if funded, Europe funds 2) if not funded, that's fine

@toellsnemesis @mattyglesias I'm sure that people can spend a lot of time quibbling about what is and isn't pro-Russia. But the original point was that it was reasonable for the US to say, "We want Europe to fund the Ukraine war," but the admin supports parties in Europe that also don't want to fund the war

@OverCommonName @mattyglesias That's helpful. So its not pro Russia.