@robin_j_brooks and apparently Cramer is now says crude below $70 in a month...😂
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PPG
8.3K posts
PPG
@PPGMacro
PPG Macro Independent Strategy. Only tweet when worth it. Not an economist. Former trader. Always an economic historian. LSE. Publican.
London, England เข้าร่วม Şubat 2010
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Robin has one of the best calls on oil since the war started.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
Brent is down to $80, which is the lowest level since the very early days of the war. The narrative in markets is already shifting back to "supply glut." We were at $70 before all this started, so the risk premium is rapidly being eroded. Don't chase this. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-pea…
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PPG รีทวีตแล้ว
The drop in permits came entirely from multi-family, which fell 3.5% M/M in May:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.@RealEJAntoni
Housing takes it on the chin in May: Permits: -0.7% M/M, -0.2% Y/Y Starts: -15.4% M/M, -8.7% Y/Y Completions: -8.1% M/M, -14.2% Y/Y These are some of the worst numbers since the covid lockdowns...
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PPG รีทวีตแล้ว
if only the UK would move so rapidly, instead of sticking with out-dated projects that are plagues with problems and overrun.
The Defence Blog@Defence_blog
France reportedly chose a Latvian drone-killer called BLAZE to protect its forces — after beating out competitors in a rigorous French military evaluation. First units arrive within weeks. France will also build them locally. defence-blog.com/france-buys-la…
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Somebody needs a history lesson. And not foregtting the Duke of Wellington.
James Callaghan (PM: 1976–1979): Served in the Royal Navy Volunteer Reserve during WWII, making him the most recent PM to be an armed forces veteran.
Edward Heath (PM: 1970–1974): Served as an officer in the Royal Artillery during WWII, participating in the Normandy Landings.
Harold Macmillan (PM: 1957–1963): Served in the Grenadier Guards during WWI, where he was wounded in action.
Anthony Eden (PM: 1955–1957): Served with distinction in the King's Royal Rifle Corps during WWI, earning the Military Cross.
Clement Attlee (PM: 1945–1951): Volunteered for WWI, serving in Gallipoli, Iraq, and on the Western Front as an infantry officer.
Winston Churchill (PM: 1940–1945, 1951–1955): Had an extensive early military career spanning conflicts in Sudan, Cuba, and the Northwest Frontier of India, and later served on the Western Front in WWI.
Ellie Cumbo@EllieCumbo
One day, Labour talking heads will realise that being prime minister isn't like anything else. It isn't like being an army officer any more than it is like running the CPS. We'll do better when we understand the job on its own terms, not by tough-guy analogy. One day. Maybe.
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Not great context. The trade balance has materially improved, averaging -$60bn a month over the year. In terms of nominal GDP it's back at the best levels of the past 30 years.
Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis
WSJ: "America’s trade deficit was close to unchanged in April, adding to evidence that the Trump administration’s tariffs have done little to rebalance the U.S.’s trade position with the rest of the world." wsj.com/economy/trade/… via @WSJ
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Over the past 6 months Chinese households have paid off CNY 253bn a month ($32bn). That's the annual equivalent of 2% of GDP.
At the same time private investment is shrinking at a record pace and the rate of retail sales is at a record low (ex-pandemic).
These would be catastrophic numbers in any normal economy. But China is growing at 5%...yeah, right.
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@vtchakarova However, The SPR was started when the US was a massive oil importer, not the largest producer in the world. Nobody seems to bring that into the conversation.
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When they try to convince you it was nothing but the reality is hitting harder by the day.
👇
Patrick De Haan@GasBuddyGuy
🚨 BREAKING: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has just fallen to its lowest level since August 1983- 340.3mb. That's a 42 yr low. No matter where you stand politically, it's a remarkable statistic: America's emergency oil stockpile hasn't been this depleted since the Reagan era.
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@KennyCap_Phd @EconBerger another thought: How much has all the healthcare fraud boosted 'supposed' healthcare employment?
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My latest for Access/Macro:
Negative revisions are *so* last year... but here's a piece on why recent employment revisions have turned positive, and why future ones should be positive too.
Link: accessmacro.substack.com/p/employment-r…
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Important to note that sulphur-based fertilisers are a small % of global fertiliser at roughly $5bn a year. Urea is a $70-80bn market. The global potash fertilizer market size is valued at approximately USD 22.8 billion to USD 30.4 billion in 2026.
Urea is lower in price than when the war started.
Velina Tchakarova@vtchakarova
Hundreds of millions will likely face famine around the globe. The chain of oil/gas-fertilizers-food is unforgiving. The law of unintended consequences is as brutal as nature can be.
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PPG รีทวีตแล้ว
Chart of the Year Candidate:
👉 SpaceX (SPCX) at $2.1 trillion market cap
👉 Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) at $1.05 market cap
= SpaceX is now exactly 2x Berkshires which recall: compounded at 19.9% for 6 decades via legendary Buffett and Munger!
'Welcome to America!' 'Only in America!'😉Or as Elon would do, let that one sink in & bring the sink 😉.
I am on both team Buffet and Elon, this is not a SpaceX vs Berkshire, undervalued/overvalued, just pointing out the value assessment from the frothy mighty markets!
P.S. ahead of the 4th of July, when we celebrate 250 years of mighty America, I’m working on 2 special reports which fit very well into that picture!
✍️ Warren Buffet’s Berkshire: The Legacy Continues! Stash Away Baby! Valuation, Buybacks, Fundamentals, Optionality and … Patience!
✍️ Decoding the U.S. Economy Through Sleek High Frequency & Alternative Data
Free to subscribe, free to get!
With respect,
Mav
Maybe interesting for the cherry picked #FinTwit group:
@BobgonzaleBob @agnostoxxx @Citrini7
@howardlindzon @arny_trezzi @FrederikNeckar @JarmoFriman @juliaccarreon @NicoGladia @eliant_capital @InvestmentTalkk @TheVolawatcher @crofin67 @darioperkins @TorrasLuis @Callum_Thomas @EricBalchunas @lhamtil @HayekAndKeynes @alexandraandnyc @Geiger_Capital @DavidBCollum @Edelweiss_Cap @kejca @MebFaber @mommavestor @TheStalwart @ecommerceshares @Globalflows @pobremillenial @JoTrader4 @SamanthaLaDuc @IrnestKaplan @JSeyff @LONGCONVEXITY @Greenbackd @KoyfinCharts @TSOH_Investing @BlacklionCTA @qcapital2020 @MichaelAArouet @cullenroche @volatilitysmile @AyeshaTariq @GreekAnalyst @realroseceline @WizardofWindsor @OKavrak @MichaelKantro @InvestInAssets
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PPG รีทวีตแล้ว
The Core Argument: The "Visibility Trap"Systemic Flaw: Wasteful infrastructure is a built-in byproduct of top-down Communist Party control, not an accidental policy bug.
Misaligned Incentives: Local cadres channel shrinking government budgets into highly visible projects to signal compliance to higher-ups.
Neglected Foundations: This focus starves critical but invisible sectors of funding, including human capital, public services, and ecological sustainability.The Evolution of Wasteful SpendingThe manifestation of this "edifice complex" has continuously shifted to evade crackdowns from Beijing.
foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-e…
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Good Morning from Germany, where corporate insolvencies keep climbing: Courts registered 2,308 business bankruptcies in March 2026, up 15.8% YoY, and highest since 2013. Consumer insolvencies jumped even more sharply, by 18.9%. The squeeze on Germany’s economy is far from over.
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PPG รีทวีตแล้ว
Returning sickness benefit levels to pre-surge levels would release all money needed for defence.
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