Political junkie

Reza Pahlavi: Trump is making America great again. I intend to make Iran great again.

The IDF has begun to run out of primary targets, such as regime HQs, nuclear facilities, known missile sites, etc. They announced that will be done in a week or so. Now they will be moving to secondary targets such as police HQs, industrial infrastructure and dual use facilities. There is no limit to the targets AI and human intelligence can generate. But they will be less important. What this means: 1) The Iranian regime, its missile program and its nuclear program have not been seriously degraded by the bombing. They survived the use of the bank of targets that Israel and the US created over the years, shaken but strong. 2) There is a difference between physical damage and functional suppression. You can blow up a building, but if the scientists, engineers, and blueprints survive in clean rooms or deep underground bunkers, the program is merely paused, not erased. If the regime can still command a single drone unit or launch a "lucky" missile at a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, they maintain deterrence-by-denial, proving they haven't been degraded in a way that changes their behavior. 3) There is a lot of destruction but no strategic gain. Military and industrial capabilities can be rebuilt. Paradoxically the regime seems stronger than before the war due to the rally around the flag effect. 4) There will be diminishing returns on bombings. As each target becomes less important, the bombings get less bang for their buck and the damage from rising oil prices to the economy increases. 5) What is happening now Targeting Inflation. When the high-value targets (HVTs) are gone, military bureaucracies often lower the threshold for what constitutes a military objective to justify continued operations. Grinding bombing on Iran does have an effect on the economy and social cohesion, but it is accruing slowly. Meanwhile, the damage done to the West economically is accruing quickly. The switch to secondary targets will decrease the military effect. It is an admission of defeat.

U.S. Sailors and Marines aboard USS Tripoli (LHA 7) arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, March 27. The America-class amphibious assault ship serves as the flagship for the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group / 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit composed of about 3,500 Sailors and Marines in addition to transport and strike fighter aircraft, as well as amphibious assault and tactical assets.

Black smoke now billows over Tehran and Isfahan after early‑morning US‑Israeli airstrikes, with Tehran’s Amirkabir University appearing to have suffered significant damage.