John [email protected]
17K posts
@RisetoClimate
Engineer, vegan, gun-toting liberal, Every day creating new sustainability and mitigation implementation scenarios 'neath an alien sky.
Please note that Earth's Energy Imbalance and surface air temperatures might have been much higher if the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had been positive in the past years. This might have provided a false sense of security. We'd better prepare for much worse to come.
@LeonSimons8 The PDO index measures the temperature contrast between the central North Pacific and the coastal North Pacific. Extra warmth in the Central NP -> negative PDO. In the short run, IMO2020 might favor a shift towards negative PDO index values, independent of the normal dynamics.
It's not this simple, but for basic understanding: For Earth's Energy Imbalance of 0.86 W/m² to go to zero through increased Planck Feedback (= OLR) alone, temps would have to increase by another ~0.27°C (0.86/3.22). Which would result in a temp of ~1.9°C above 1900!
"We conclude that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation cannot be considered a low-probability event anymore." - Prof. Sybren Drijfhout et al. #ClimateEmergency
Barack Obama: "I don't understand how we got so toxic and just so divided and so bitter."
In addition, policies that are currently being implemented by countries (teal line) are insufficient to achieve the NDC goals. (see teal line compared to orange and red lines) /16
