Martin Rose

GROK just listed $IREN as one of the potential 10X 🤩 58*10=580$ You are not bullish enough!!

@jiahanjimliu Super post. Practically a bunch of external project managers here. Great granularity.

$IREN: Before Earnings Outlook The IREN community has satellite and job postings for all four candidate sites that IREN has going: SW1, Mackenzie, Childress extension, Australia, but almost no one knows exactly when the deals will get signed. Mike Alfred knew which negotiations were going on but likely didn't know final outcome of the negotiations until day(s) of news release. Mike Alfred gave too obvious of memes on last Microsoft deal so has most likely has been given a tap on the shoulder. He no longer posts on X directly about IREN even though he's still board of directors. Deals I see a these deals coming in the 1 week - 4 months time frame but I cannot pinpoint the time. My expectations are May-June besides for AUS which the community has less tracking on. 1. "Multi-billion deal negotiation involving software" mentioned by Dan himself in the last earnings call. This becomes obviously that they are very close to proceeding with it as IREN announced Mirantis on Tuesday. They would not do a 625m acquisition unless they were more or less locked in for the deal involving software. Although this is very close in time after official energization SW1, this deal can be either any of the upcoming sites. Because this is for IREN cloud and not HS, Mackenzie is most likely, followed by maybe AUS. Childress has air cooled GPUs planned but those GPUs are coming after Mackenzie. Satellite pictures show take down zones for H5-6 extension in Childress which indicates liquid cooled extension, likely for MSFT. 2. SW1 - this is the 1.4GW site that officially went live on Friday although Satellite pictures shows transformers in place a week before that. Most likely they were waiting for the scheduled grid outrage for the grid connection. Ground works have started here. I am thinking if a deal would happen for SW1 this week, it would be announced AM so market would have time to digest before earnings which hasn't happened. Thus I am holding my expectations to May/June. Job posting are a furry here and ground work is progressing. 3. Childress 5-6 extension from evidence of Satellite pictures of takedown zone. I believe this one will be tied to H1 handoff as this is most likely a Microsoft extension. From Dan's picture, GPUs were installed and powered on but some GPUs were doing burn in as of earlier this week. Although burn-in of individual GPUs takes 1-2 days, for a 50MW cluster which is H1, burn in is staggered and would likely take a week. I believe handover will be next week and then extension shortly after. 4. AUS - this is the one that the IREN community has less information on as for US sites, we've been able to get local government documents to predict Oklahoma sites. However with significant hiring in AUS and marketing activity, it's likely an AUS site is in the plays. Because we have much less information about this site, we cannot really figure out timeline of deal for AUS site. 5. Mackenzie 80MW ofB300s - GPU deliveries have already been secured for both 80MW of Mackenzie and 17MW for Childress aircooled for H2 2026 so Mackenzie likely to come this summer which means deal this summer or in May. The reason why Mackenzie GPUs likely to come in summer is that to reach 2026 3.7B ARR, they will need to fill Canal Flats as well which comes after Mackenzie. Revenue The important thing to watch is AI revenue. I'm going with @_Sgr_A_Star 81.25m number here. From tracking IREN's hashrate, BTC revenue is likely to be under which makes the overall number under. However 81.25m AI revenue is what matters. This will be from Prince George which is 500m ARR or 125m/quarter. Prince George finished up GPU installs sometime in Jan/early Feb. Acknowledgements I acknowledge my wrong anticipation that deals would get signed very fast after the Microsoft deal and all the builds would happen in parallel. This is not the case as there's been significant time needed to de-risk the H1-4 buildout before proceeding with more deals and tight GPU/HBM bottlenecks. GB300s goes in full ramp H2 2026 and IREN will have de-risk greatly after handing off H1 which frees them up to proceed with multi-site parallel building.

$IREN -> A few recent interesting quotes from Alex Freedland, the co-founder and CEO of Mirantis. This is a game changing acquisition for IREN. Full article below. "This isn't just about data privacy, though that's part of it," Freedland notes. "Countries, states, and industries are recognizing that AI is strategically important. They need sovereign approaches where the intelligence and the infrastructure producing it remain under their control." "Selling bare metal GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) infrastructure might generate $1 billion annually per 100 megawatts of power. Orchestrated, just-in-time compute services can generate $1.5 billion from the same capacity. But if you can package that as intelligence – actual AI services – you're looking at $4 billion from the same energy investment." "Energy constraints and sovereignty requirements mean the hyperscalers like AWS and Google won't have monopolies on intelligence production. Enterprises will consume AI services from multiple sources—hyperscalers for commodity intelligence, neoclouds for specialized capabilities, and potentially sovereign providers for strategic applications." markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencie…

MacKenzie Scott divorced Jeff Bezos and got $36 billion in the divorce. She has donated $26 billion to charity since then. She’s now worth $42 billion, six billion MORE than when she started TAX THE BILLIONAIRES. THEY’LL BE FINE.

@IREN_Ltd @danroberts0101 Goodonya

Sweetwater 1 has been successfully energized – a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus. @danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN commented: “Delivering Sweetwater 1 substation energization on schedule reflects our disciplined execution, the strength of our supply chain relationships and the efficiency of our vertically integrated development model. It is another example of our ability to design and construct large-scale infrastructure reliably and at speed to meet market demand.” Learn more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/d…

$IREN: Who You Trade With Matters Less Than How You Partner In today’s market, because we are still in the early stages of the AI industry, investors are evaluating related companies using very shallow and overly simplistic metrics. Power supply is tight, so as long as a company has electricity, that seems good enough. No one seriously considers the source of that power, its economics, reliability, environmental impact, effect on residential life, or the obstacles that may arise. Companies simply announce their pipeline plans and throw out numbers, and the market accepts them at face value. As a result, we see endless headlines about severe power shortages on one hand, while on the other hand companies keep announcing that one few gigawatts today and another doubled its reserves tomorrow. This makes the current energy shortage look like only a temporary issue—as if in two or three years it will no longer matter. If such a long-term structural challenge can be so easily ignored, then deeper issues are even less likely to be considered by the market right now. For example: the technical complexity of data centers, cost-control capability, efficiency, location and network transmission capacity, site scale, the difference between gigawatt-scale and megawatt-scale facilities, the advantages of grid-connected power supply, and the enormous future potential these factors may bring to computing performance. As for higher-level issues such as national sovereignty and security, those are completely excluded. Even broader questions about how foundational infrastructure shapes the long-term direction of the AI industry receive no attention at all. Yet these are precisely the core factors that will determine whether companies ultimately succeed or fail. Current market speculation focuses on only one thing: Did you sign a deal? With whom? For how much money? As long as a company can announce a contract with a major counterparty and attach a large dollar figure to it, the stock immediately rises. It is very similar to the early internet era, when simply adding “.com” to a company name could send shares soaring. The deals that $CRWV and $NBIS currently represent with hyperscalers are highly unequal agreements. They are short-sighted arrangements in which these companies, due to their own major financial disadvantages, are forced to give up future benefits. Although it may appear that NVIDIA is backing them, fundamentally this is just a way for NVIDIA to protect its own GPU market share. NVIDIA is not truly responsible for your financial strength. On the contrary, if your finances deteriorate, it will quickly distance itself. The same applies even more so to counterparties that sign compute-purchase agreements. The unfairness of these arrangements is mainly reflected in four areas: First, extremely weak bargaining power and thin profit margins. This is inevitable. If you rely on the other party’s superior credit profile in order to secure financing, you must sacrifice pricing power. You have no real negotiating leverage. There is no need to disclose the deal terms for people to understand this. Second, transfer of capital risk. $CRWV and $NBIS take on billions of dollars of debt to buy GPUs and lease data centers (heavy assets), while hyperscalers obtain compute capacity through contracts (light assets). On the surface, the smaller companies use long-term contracts from major customers as collateral to secure expensive financing. In reality, they are assuming the financial risk of meeting the large companies’ compute demand. Third, bridge-like status and replacement risk. Once hyperscalers complete their own compute-center buildouts, or once their in-house AI chips (such as Google TPU or Meta MTIA) scale broadly, they can reduce demand or decline to renew contracts at any time. In fact, signs of this trend are already emerging—for example, Anthropic is expected to use large amounts of TPU capacity. Because of their NVIDIA-linked arrangements, $CRWV and $NBIS are unlikely to participate meaningfully in alternative chip ecosystems. Fourth, lack of a moat. Hyperscalers do not need these companies’ software expertise; they only need their hardware capacity. Once contracts expire, $CRWV and $NBIS may face major asset impairment risk and depreciation pressure. Supporters believe that $CRWV and $NBIS are cleverly exploiting the opportunity. Even though the imbalance of these contracts is obvious, they argue that these companies will use this period to gradually build their own customer base and reduce dependence on hyperscaler creditworthiness. There is some logic to that view, but the probability of success is low. The fatal weakness of this model is that it offers almost no ability to control costs. It is a business model under extreme strain from both ends: upstream, you must guarantee delivery to hyperscalers; downstream, you must maintain enormous financial obligations. At the same time, you still need to cope with rapid industry change. The result is likely to be constant firefighting and losing focus. It’s like lifting weights while holding your pee As for cost control, it is not that $CRWV and $NBIS do not want to improve it—they simply do not have the bandwidth. Their ability to absorb risk is weak. If they encounter a major setback, any supposed advantage may disappear, because basic survival itself could become the issue. In emerging industries, companies should avoid putting themselves in such a position whenever possible. Now can people see how $IREN’s transaction with Microsoft is fundamentally different? Yes, the megawatt pricing was somewhat lower, but IREN received $2 billion in cash to build data centers that become its own permanent fixed assets. On that point alone, one could even argue the deal is somewhat unfavorable to Microsoft: paying cash to fund fixed assets it does not own. This is because IREN itself serves as the designer, builder, and integrated project contractor for these data centers. In terms of technical solutions and design for AI data centers, Microsoft likely has broader long-term strategic considerations for working with IREN. That distinction is extremely important. Although IREN also benefits from Microsoft’s credit backing, $IREN’s negotiating position is completely different. Talking to Microsoft about software advantages would be meaningless—but in data center engineering capability, construction execution speed, advanced cooling technology, site economics, integrated cost advantages, energy efficiency, long-term ability to deliver these capabilities, and even co-designing infrastructure details that improve model performance, these are all areas where Microsoft does not inherently hold the advantage. So this is not a small company surrendering future compute economics in exchange for credit support. It is a company using years of engineering experience and forward-looking AI data center design expertise to secure a fair and balanced agreement. If the first deal is fundamentally different in this way, then future deals should reflect these same strengths even more clearly. The two most important factors for winning in the future AI industry are simply: Cost control and efficiency. In truth, these are the core ingredients of success in any business. AI may be fashionable, but that does not change the fundamentals. For IREN’s upcoming earnings report, those are the two things I care about most. Whether there is a new deal is secondary. If there is one, what matters is how the partnership is structured—whether it reflects and emphasizes IREN’s unique core advantages, and whether those advantages are central to the agreement: capacity assurance, build speed, efficiency leadership, and lowest-cost execution. Those are things only IREN can provide. Various signs and logical inferences suggest that a partnership between IREN and Anthropic is increasingly possible. It is not only because their businesses complement each other, but more importantly because the two companies appear to share similar values. This kind of divergence in values seems to be becoming more visible across the broader AI industry. Whether they ultimately work together will be answered by time. If IREN and Anthropic each push their own strengths to the limit, cooperation may happen naturally. If not, it may simply mean there are better alternatives for maximizing interests. In the end, the market will provide the answer. @FransBakker9812 @brianfry01 @jiahanjimliu @Agrippa_Inv @_Sgr_A_Star @AvivArazi @ilzmcfly @moninvest0rr @Mario20253035 @TheBigDegen @bitcoinbutcher1 @XCapitalMgmt

@DavidJPete @danroberts0101 ditto

@danroberts0101 Are you setting us up for no deal again?

Feels like we’re still early in the compute cycle. Supply isn’t easy, real-world constraints are everywhere. And every step forward in AI just seems to create more demand for compute.

@Av1dlive more upspeak please

Anthropic's applied AI team just showed how to actually prompt Claude properly. 24 minutes. free. from the people who built it. watch the workshop. bookmark it. you've been prompting Claude for months without the 6 elements. I built a skill that applies them for you. read the guide below.

60% of US small business owners are over 55. Most have no succession plan.

Our daughter, Rachel Corrie, was killed in 2003 in Gaza, while trying to protect a Palestinian home facing illegal destruction by the Israeli military. She was 23 years old. The massive, armored Caterpillar D-9 bulldozer that crushed her was operated by two Israeli soldiers and manufactured in the United States. It was the same type of militarized bulldozer that US presidents from George W. Bush through to Donald Trump have delivered to Israel. Today, as the destruction of Palestinian homes has only become more commonplace, not to mention the horror of Israel’s genocide, Senator Bernie Sanders will force a vote in the Senate to try to end this cycle of death by banning the transfer of D-9 bulldozers to Israel. We hope he will not take this stand alone. No policy can bring back those taken from us by these actions—children and other loved ones. But the Senate now has an opportunity to honor the memories of our daughter, other Americans, and thousands of Palestinian civilians killed, and to show that their deaths, and all the destruction, will no longer be condoned and funded. We hope those elected to represent us, the American people, understand the message that voting to block these D-9 bulldozers will send. This will not be a symbolic gesture, but a concrete step toward the protection of human life. thenation.com/article/politi…

$IREN: The largest single stock call option trade of the day was in $IREN A massive order of $55 strike 1/15/27 was executed, for a total of $9.2 million. It’s not a random bet; this is a well-planned strategy. The next few months are going to be great. Enjoy your weekend! ✅ $IREN and relax.

Cody Roberts filmed himself chasing a 9-month old female wolf on a snowmobile, laughing at her terror & exhaustion, repeatedly hitting her. He duct-taped her mouth, brought her to a bar. For hours, people took photos as she bled to death. Then he shot her. 2 yrs probation.

Told my wife to have dinner ready at 6 or I will obliterate her entire civilization. She now charges me a fee to use the bathroom, that used to be free, and I didn't get dinner. WTF

That beer hit my hand on a Friday like Mjolnir

@bitcoinbutcher1 @conloco_tx apparently, this is a bullish activity with the whale collecting a premium, and being OK to be saddled with the stock even at a lower price

On a day that $iren underperformed its peers I could not help notice after being informed by @conloco_tx that 5m shares of shorts got sold 4 minutes after the high of the day at 12:05 PM EST at $38 $190m sold at once. That’s not an 🏧 Someone wants $iren held below the 200 day moving average. Price managed to stay close to 37 showing buyers stepping in

howard dean yelled a little too loud at the 2004 Iowa caucus and was deemed too unhinged to be president just thinking about that for no reason today

@levmyshkin2026 @TheTechInvest True but during the recent bitcoinbutcher/onlyfrans x discussion he said "april includes Q2"

@TheTechInvest He said quarter 2, not April

$IREN is expected this month to announce energizing one of the largest data centers on the planet: SW1 (1.4GW). Based on the CEO and CCO most recent interviews, the deadline is unchanged.

Exciting to see how quickly this is moving now 👀

it’s crazy that 95% of people just want a nice normal life on our beautiful, already abundant planet where they can have their basic needs met and cute experiences with their loved ones and then we have these 5% of evil, narcissistic goons at the top fucking it up for all of us

My last 10x is about to become my next. A year ago, I wrote an analysis on $IREN, pointing out why I believed the stock was severely undervalued at $7,62. I argued that in April 2025, Iren was the best risk/reward stock in the market, with the potential to 10x the fastest. Over the next 6 months, the stock did exactly that and 10x. Since then, it has dropped over 50% from its peak (75-35$). I believe the current pricing of $Iren offers an excellent risk/reward, and I expect the stock to hit $200 during 2027 based on these numbers, assuming a 30 P/E and 50% dilution (409M shares to 614M shares): 1. Annual Revenue (Total ARR = $13.74B) Canada: $1.5B (160MW) (Conservative imo) Horizon 1-4 (300MW) (MSFT): $1.94B (Conservative if VR200 gets installed for H3 and H4) Horizon 5-10 (450MW Air cooled): $4.4B Sweetwater 1 (600MW of 1400MW): $5.9B (Assuming GB300 economics, but will probably be VR200 = higher ARR and CAPEX) 2. Earnings (Total EBT = $4.557B) Canada: $547M Horizon 1-4: $330M Horizon 5-10: $1.68B (25% improvement from MSFT deal) Sweetwater 1: $2.0B (25% improvement from MSFT deal) 3. Net Profit Calculation Pre-tax Profit: $4.557B (EBT) - $138M (SG&A) = $4.419B Taxes: $928M (21% Corp Tax) - $789M (85% Tax Abatement/Loss Realization) = $139M Net Profit: $4.419B - $139M = $4.28B 4. Valuation & Share Price Market Cap: $4.28B x 30 (Conservative P/E with this growth) = $128.4B Share Price: $128.4B / 613.7M (50% fully diluted shares) = $209.22 This is with only 1/3 of their announced power portfolio (1510/4500MW). In 2027, they will have over 6000MW imo. If the company manages to execute, the gains can be massive. I'm long $IREN and believe this wil be my first 100x stock What is your price prediction?