SpeculationInsights

I challenge the "things have literally never been better" crowd to reflect on some of these. 1/4

But African miners they said…. It will be fun they said….

BHP suspended its Western Australia Nickel operations, including the Kalgoorlie Nickel Smelter, in October 2024 due to global nickel oversupply. This suspension halted the domestic production of sulphuric acid, a critical input for Western Australia's mining and agriculture sectors.  Major industrial consumers, such as the Lynas Rare Earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie, relied directly on the smelter's output. The absence of local production forces these industries to depend on imported sulphuric acid to maintain output. BHP has stated it will use reasonable efforts to secure and supply imported acid to fulfill its existing contracts during the shutdown. BHP plans to review the operational suspension in February 2027 We can’t keep doing this argusmedia.com/en/news-and-in…

Everything is fine. That's why the Prime Minister of Australia just made a national address proudly announcing that the Australian government just secured 628 kbbl of diesel—just more than one day of Australian diesel demand.

Can't shake the feeling never-doomers are going to get a huge kick in the nuts when the physical reality hits and you can't jawbone and lie your way out of it. The scoreboard has lulled everyone into complacency here. +15% ytd fwiw, not that bitter.

Not banking on it but definitely not counting it out.

The hardest thing to figure out is Iran’s willingness to make a deal. From reading the press, you’d think the two sides are very close. But, in a scenario where Iran wants to play games, they’d also be following the same strategy. Make it look like you want a deal while letting the time pass and the energy market gets tighter and tighter. That was basically the thesis behind being long. I didn’t think this would end until oil products prices reached panic levels. $4 gas and $5 diesel are high, but not freak-out levels by any stretch. So until that happened, I didn’t think Iran would be willing to make a deal because they’d be leaving a lot of leverage on the table. Their acceptance of a ceasefire surprised me. I didn’t appreciate that maybe they are getting close to their max pain tolerance also. Or maybe it is a strategic move intended to save them from getting shelled while the energy market continues to tighten. Been very hard for me to give up on my thesis that Iran would play for maximum leverage in the oil market before cutting a deal, but at some point you have to look at the tape and seriously consider if you are wrong. There are all kinds of other factors at work. Initial margins have been raised, longs and shorts have both been crushed. Longs especially now can’t seem to hold on at all. @IliaBouchouev has pointed out that books are vol targeted and we are realizing so high that no one can hold positions. The market is a mess. I do think the market remains too sanguine on the prospect of Iran making a deal and that energy flows will resume to normal shortly. But I’m about as doubtful now as I’ve been since the conflict started that I’m just wrong. Interestingly, we are entering the phase of the market where onsite draws should start materializing quite strongly. Iran has basically already accomplished the hard part. SPR releases, sanctions waivers, oil on water drawdown, getting the snot bombed out of them. 4-6 weeks later the last cargoes that left the Strait have discharged. The timing of this whole capitulation in prices is super bizarre. Makes little sense if you’re Iran to fold now. But that is what the market is saying. Conversely, it is the perfect time to feign that you are serious about making a deal. Lull your enemy into some false comfort while the shortages kick-in in earnest. Idk, whole thing doesn’t make any sense. @mb_ghalibaf you should read this shit and tell me what’s happening.

@toiletkingcap At the moment it's too abstract. Yeah gas prices are up but who cares. Few understand the knock on effects if this lasts just a few weeks longer. Basically normalcy bias + nonstop headline pumping. And we've still got the machine god theme running full steam ahead (for now).

lol it is absolutely blowing my mind that "the largest energy shock of all time" means nothing to the market. i understand it may not mean catastrophe if fixed quickly, but how in the world are indexes higher? please explain to me like im an absolute moron

@CapitalValor thethaiger.com/news/national/…

$AFM Alphamin is a world class tin mining asset in the DRC $AFM trading at 1.5x EBITDA on spot prices. Pays chunky divi. Tin prices should remain strong. Tin is a critical mineral for semis and solar. Myanmar, Indo are major producing countries facing diesel shortages. LONG

Songkran festival in Thailand traditionally an event where most travel back to home towns to celebrate. Everyone I talk to says parties in rural areas will be tame this year as bus operators have cut services and most can't afford it after getting squeezed last several weeks

Even amongst well-informed and what I consider savvy market participants, I’m a bit shocked at the level of normalcy bias and overwhelming sentiment this’ll all turn out mostly fine somehow. There’s a hell of a lot of potential for this to get much, much worse. Too many variables and potentially irrational actors.

@puppyeh1 Used to ride my bike to Redgate after work. From California and I was stunned at the beaches in WA.

Western Australia hits different 🤌🏻🇦🇺❤️

LOL

Pretty dystopian if we're being honest

Saudi Arabia confirms hits to the critical East-West pipeline (a pumping station), which led to a 700 kbpd throughput loss. As well as confirmed strikes to upstream production assets (!!) that have reduced Saudi production *capacity* by 600 kbpd. On top of downstream refining/processing attacks. Official Saudi Press Agency:

Apparently soft commodities are going to be the cheapest in decades while fertilizer and fuels are the most expensive in decades If I was a farmer I'd probably just retire

A ceasefire with still throttled (no more than 15 ships daily) Hormuz throughput well serves Tehran's strategic interest. Iran's main leverage is a closed Strait + time, so building another 2 weeks of pressure on the global economy while not being bombed feels ideal from the Iranian perspective. That spares the market some fear of further escalation (facility attacks, etc.) but at the price of the status quo stoppage getting worse.

SAUDI ARABIA'S IMPORTANT EAST-WEST OIL PIPELINE, WHICH TRANSPORTS CRUDE FROM THE GULF TO THE RED SEA FOR EXPORT, HAS BEEN STRUCK BY AN ATTACK.

خبير روسي: لن تُقبل هذه الشروط. يبدو أن ترامب يحاول ببساطة فتح مضيق هرمز لفترة كافية بينما يقوم بتجميع قوات إضافية.

IATA chief: Jet fuel supply will take months to normalize even after Hormuz Strait reopens.

You can rate of change all you want but December oil at $70 is not the right price