@BlueMoonTrades @livetradepro Yeah. The algo and fewer links made it less useful
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Peter Tchir
52K posts
Peter Tchir
@TFMkts
Opinions are my own, re-tweets are not an endorsement. Focused on Macro, Geopolitics and Fixed Income
เข้าร่วม Ekim 2011
3.4K กำลังติดตาม27.6K ผู้ติดตาม
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is ready to walk away and leave Hormuz closed...
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump told aides he'll end the war even if the Strait stays shut.
The mission to reopen it would extend the conflict beyond his 4-6 week timeline, so he's punting it to diplomacy or telling allies to handle it themselves.
A Brookings expert called this "unbelievably irresponsible."
The U.S. started a war that closed a waterway carrying 20% of the world's oil and is now planning to leave without reopening it.
Five weeks. 3,000+ dead. $200 billion requested. 300+ Americans wounded.
Oil above $100.
Global recession odds rising.
Asian nations rationing fuel. Gulf allies absorbing nightly bombardment.
And the Strait that triggered the entire escalation spiral stays in Iranian hands.
Source: WSJ
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇱🇮🇷 Two cities. Same war. Tel Aviv digging through collapsed buildings after Iranian missiles. Isfahan engulfed in fireballs from coalition strikes on weapons depots. Neither side is stopping.
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Who knows if this will be how things actually develop
But if they do, those who have been watching my channel know I have been consistent in warning people not to discount this exact outcome
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: President Trump is willing to end the Iran War even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, per WSJ. Details include: 1. Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen Hormuz would push the conflict beyond his timeline 4-6 weeks 2. Trump believes the US should achieve its main goals of destroying Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles 3. Trump thinks he can wind down current hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to resume the "free flow of trade" 4. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the Strait, US officials say US stock market futures are rising on the news.
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@chigrl @Macronomics1 The rate hike narrative with supply chain disruptions made no sense !
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US Traders Now See Cuts More Likely Than Hikes
Traders have backed away from their earlier bets on rate increases. SOFR futures yields are as much as 10-11 bps lower on the day after Powell’s comments. Traders had already paring bets on hikes on Friday, but now the implied path of interest rates is mildly lower. (Bloomberg)
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Peter Tchir รีทวีตแล้ว
Global markets are vastly underestimating the severity of what’s unfolding. It’s worth considering how the economies of Europe and Asia will cope with imminent shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. Brent crude futures seem to be pricing in a quick return to normalcy.
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@SullyCNBC @PowerLunch Will they ever do FSD on ICE vehicle? I eventually want FSD
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I’ll buy an all electric vehicle if gas prices stay high for:
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Peter Tchir รีทวีตแล้ว
Just had a brief phone call with President Trump. He said Iran wants "to settle." And he reiterated the war is going well— "unbelievably well."
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A much quieter weekend than expected from a “weekend warrior.” Maybe the direct/indirect talks are starting to show, some signs of limited passage through Hormuz. As for objectives, Trump says Iran will never get a nuclear weapon and also said that regime change did happen. #OOTT
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@PatrickWelter @jaypelosky Spend more time on end game situational awareness
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Duke lost 3 games by a total of 5 points. But have exited the tourney giving up double digit leads two years in a row. Scheyer has this thing close, but not perfect. My takeaway, get a little older. Too many freshman. #Duke.
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@GreenMonsterah Take the foul. Send it back. Throw it so high it doesn’t come down. So much better than people so long never had to contemplate the game? Maybe players would be better with fewer timeouts and everything scripted?
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Boozer's brother got stuck in the moment there trying to kill clock but u gotta take the foul there no way u even attempt that pass
Tom Fornelli@TomFornelli
An all-time March Madness moment. We'll talk about this until we're all dead.
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Yet another industry affected>
Half of Dutch fleet idle as European fishing hit by high diesel prices
The fishing industry is emerging as an early European casualty of soaring diesel costs amid the Iran war, with at least half the Dutch fleet staying in port this week, according to industry representatives.
The pressure is most acute in the Netherlands because of an outsized number of beam trawlers in its fleet, which makes up about 7% of the European Union's total.
These ships target high-value North Sea flatfish such as sole, turbot and brill, but burn relatively large amounts of fuel. Industry group VisNed said 80% to 90% of such trawlers did not sail out this week.
Now the fuel bill is equal to the revenue, so it simply does not work,” he said. (Reuters)
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@vtchakarova @ektrit Fed is NOT going to hike due to a conflict induced spike in energy prices. The bond market will start pricing in recession risks (that may have started Friday)
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Kris was also absolutely the only one who was foreseeing Fed and CB rate hikes while they were actually sticking to cutting rates scenario.
WAR ECONOMY by KRIS 📿@ektrit
1) Putin attacking Ukraine, foreseen. 2) 5% interest rate from the Federal Reserve when everyone was saying no rate hikes in my lifetime, foreseen. 3) Iran war, foreseen. 4) Boots on the ground from the U.S. Military, foreseen. ektrit.substack.com
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Peter Tchir รีทวีตแล้ว
This war is not making sense in so many ways, it's wild!
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@WhalersPlates Saw a great expos hat the other day like that even better
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@ClaireMPLS @asymmetricinfo It is more and more common. Though I prefer to leave cash
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petition for hotel rooms to start leaving qr codes in the room to tip housecleaning staff because it’s 2026 and i don’t have cash ever
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Peter Tchir รีทวีตแล้ว
Peter Tchir รีทวีตแล้ว