Tim Duy

High hopes for this cutting board. Should be 12.5” x 21”.

Cat fam, we need your help. Bob needs your help. He needs to know his life matters. That he is loved. 🧵

Never deleting this app

Larry: Are you becoming chartist? 😀(I kind of remember that something happened at the end of the 1970s, like a trippling of oil prices, which might be vaguely relevant. Do u expect it to happen again?)

No man has ever tried so hard, repeatedly but unintentionally, to destroy the American economy The fact that he hasn’t succeeded yet is a testament to its resilience

@MattHobson6 And yet another trade

@TimDuy Maybe not for the US but disaster for many other countries and their economies.

This is going to be an unpopular position but it is not wrong.

@JamesWetzler9 There's a trade there too.

@TimDuy Low energy share of budgets means less elastic demand, which means the price has to rise more to clear the market.

@kkmaway Then you have a bet, bull flattener on 2s10s. I like the 25-75bps range for no recession, 0-25bps a danger zone. <0 depends on how quickly Fed reacts.

@TimDuy Yes...but it has an impact on their other spendings as well

@Brad_Setser @M_C_Klein They can’t/shouldn’t hike based on what we have here. But markets had completely closed off that side of the distribution, and now it has to be opened up.

@TimDuy @M_C_Klein hard for the fed to look through high headline inflation right now ... but also hard to hike? so end up with flattish curve?

@Brad_Setser @M_C_Klein “Yet”

@Brad_Setser @M_C_Klein Yes the yield curve is not inverting….

@M_C_Klein @Brad_Setser Yeah, remember the Fed had to delay rate hikes.

@Brad_Setser @TimDuy but when oil prices fell in 2014-2016 the economy did worse

@Brad_Setser @M_C_Klein Scaling versus output tells you how likely it is to recreate the 1970s, which people did hate. Of course now confidence surveys tells us people hate the economy no matter what is happening.

$150 was plenty scary in 2013! High oil prices from 2010 were one reason why the US recovery was slow (reduced real incomes) and folks didn't like the economy (conversely low oil prices in Trump 1 did improve sentiment ... ). Scaling v income is useful but not determinative. Folks hated the 70s economy

NEW ODD LOTS; The “strategy trap” of Trump’s war in Iran. @tracyalloway and I talk to the one and only @gbrew24 about the ongoing and worsening energy disaster and why the US can’t easily find an off-ramp open.spotify.com/episode/7reFgx…

Should monetary policy "look-through" the current energy price shock? ➡️Old debate: energy shocks are "temporary" in nature. Central banks should look them through ➡️We argue in our work that the look-through doctrine does not hold when *supply chain uncertainty * is elevated👇

This is not sustainable.

Oh my

FED'S BOWMAN: I HAVE WRITTEN IN THREE CUTS FOR THIS YEAR

@federalreserve really being outclassed by other CBs. *ECB FORECASTS ASSUME 2026 OIL PRICE OF $81.3/BARREL *ECB OFFICIALS SEE POSSIBILITY OF RATE HIKE AT APRIL MEETING *RBNZ SAYS GOVERNOR SPEECH TO ADDRESS IMPACTS OF IRAN WAR

“He”