Tim O'Malley
1.7K posts

Tim O'Malley
@Timomalley14
Proud Dad of 2 boys. Spend my summers helping kids have fun!!!
















Bryce Harper should bat leadoff every single game. #Phillies plate appearances per game with two-outs and no one on base (MLB average): 1st - 0.58 | (0.58) 2nd - 0.55 | (0.49) 3rd - 0.89 | (0.94) 4th - 0.56 | (0.49) 5th - 0.52 | (0.47) 6th - 0.65 | (0.65) 7th - 0.57 | (0.58) 8th - 0.48 | (0.52) 9th - 0.56 | (0.53) #Phillies total RISP opportunities per game: 1st - 1.21 2nd - 1.20 3rd - 1.05 4th - 1.21 5th - 1.15 6th - 0.95 7th - 0.98 8th - 1.02 9th - 1.10 Percentage of total RISP opportunities occurring with two outs—"clutch opportunities," as some might call them—across all of MLB: 1st - 46.4% 2nd - 43.8% 3rd - 38.2% 4th - 45.0% 5th - 48.5% 6th - 47.5% 7th - 45.9% 8th - 47.2% 9th - 46.4% More importantly, take a look at the number of plate appearances per-game in which the batter can either tie the game or give his team a lead: 1st - 2.18 2nd - 2.11 3rd - 2.01 4th - 1.86 5th - 1.69 6th - 1.59 7th - 1.52 8th - 1.44 9th - 1.35 ...and I already know what you are thinking, but it is wrong. Number of plate appearances per-game in which the batter can either tie the game or give his team a lead AFTER the first time through the lineup: 1st - 1.26 2nd - 1.19 3rd - 1.12 4th - 1.07 5th - 0.99 6th - 0.91 7th - 0.86 8th - 0.80 9th - 0.72 The importance of the leadoff spot is emphasized even MORE after the first time through the lineup, as he will have, on average, 8.5% more opportunities to dictate a team's standing in a game, increasing to 11.1% more chances after the first time through the order. There is not a single team in baseball that should bat their best player third, and no team should be running out a traditional beginning-to-end lineup. It does NOT play in modern baseball. The lineup should operate cyclically, not point-to-point. Your weakest hitter should be batting seventh, and your eight and nine should be able to function as a quasi one-two in order to optimize production from you best hitters. These are not projections. These are real, on-field outcomes. It has been this way every single year since the implementation of the universal designated hitter. Your best bat should be batting leadoff. Bryce Harper should bat leadoff every single game.














