Niel 尼尔

Crypto's current state is a bit shit 1. Market cap is not an indicator of quality - the top 50 is made up of ghost coins or bloated governance slop that has underperformed and is uninvestable 2. The long tail speculative stuff went from high risk high reward to 'some dude in Miami is going to zero this if you hold it for more than 5.9 seconds' 3. Everything is extremely correlated and you can't meaningfully make bets based on sectors as it all converges into a tightly correlated mush, especially to the downside 4. Broad brush alt season is an artefact of the past that's very hard to replicate given (2) and given that there are simply too many coins and the excess of speculation doesn't really happen on centralised exchanges anymore - it's been siphoned off to bundled shit in max PvP settings 5. Crypto reputationally is no longer the sexy frontier of speculation. Institutional bid is in AI, retail speculative bid is in 0DTE equities, single name stocks etc. 6. Convexity has flattened. Even a lot of the historically safe blue chip stuff (BTC, ETH etc.) has underperformed and the historical anchor of 'buy deep drawdowns because all-time highs are guaranteed and explosive' has disappointed. All the shit we used to put up with because of the accessibly massive trend and momentum effects is now harder to justify because those same effects are getting neutered or siphoned off into other arenas. The obvious rebuttal is 'cycles' but even this past cycle is a useful counterpoint: it was extremely concentrated versus broad brush wealth effect, plus something very obviously broke after 10/10. So what does this all mean? 1. In previous cycles, nailing timing was enough and selection was the cherry on top (rising tide lifted all boats). I don't think that holds - both timing and selection matter now and in the future. 2. Participation alone can be an edge if the asset class is early enough and/or mispriced enough. I don't think that holds either, and we might actually have to learn how to trade (fuck). 3. Hopefully I'm an idiot doomposting the bottom GM

@Rainmaker1973 What is the point tho?

A company in China introduced the world's most modern and advanced sink system.

@morpheus7447x @ethanrkho @SystematicIRE @tcoste110 Buffett even said himself that he can only invest in the biggest stocks because they have so many money to manage. Otherwise it doesn't move the needle. But with a 1M portfolio he would focus on small stocks only prob...

@morpheus7447x @ethanrkho @SystematicIRE @tcoste110 Berkshire bought Apple 2016. But you couldn't have valued it in 2016 based on the numbers we have today. I don't know what Buffet his fair value was but could been that he thought it was maybe 20-30% undervalued. Then the undervaluation just stayed over the years while it grew.

"I haven't seen a real new idea in trading in at least 15 years." Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Built one of the first NLP-driven equity systems in 2003. 20 years managing capital, never had a down year. "Comparing what a retail trader does to what a quantitative hedge fund does is like comparing driving a bus on the New Jersey Turnpike to winning a Formula One race." We cover: - His hot take: no genuinely new trading idea in 15 years — only better people doing the same things faster - Why everyone in quant finance is a genius — and why that makes you ordinary, not special - Crypto is "super smart guys cosplaying at finance" — built for retail, which is exactly why it's the easiest money in finance right now - Why AGI won't beat the hedge fund industry — all the readily-capturable alpha is already captured - The status trap: why the path that made Paul Tudor Jones a billionaire won't work for the kid trying to copy it in 2026 - His friend the investment banker who'd quit it all to run a 10-employee ambulance supply company worth $150M - Why excitement is "wildly overbid" in finance — and why wanting an exciting trading job is itself a disqualifier - The most honest end of the financial industry — and why the media has it exactly backwards Thanks so much to Tom for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers 03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns 04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value 08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market 13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs 25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 2026 30:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection 33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund 35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage 38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years 50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions 59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up 1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype 1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns

The "Top 10" club tends to be a graveyard for future returns. Historically, these giants underperform the index 4 out of 4 times over the following decade. Why do the world’s largest companies struggle? It’s a double whammy: 1️⃣ Business Maturity: Growth naturally slows at scale. 2️⃣ Valuation Gravity: They reach the top because the market assigned them a perfect valuation. You want to buy quality when it’s out of favor, not when it’s being crowned king of the S&P 500.

@morpheus7447x @ethanrkho @SystematicIRE @tcoste110 I would say, trade things that are too small for big funds to bother with. The edge is kind of in penny and microcaps. Nobody has really big alpha on what apple stock should be priced at because it's priced correctly already

@ethanrkho @SystematicIRE @tcoste110 The only sustainable edge "retail" has over quant hedge funds is the ability to play an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT game and focus on a time frame pros cannot because of risk mandates and constraints. I don't have to care about a single month performance.

Small warning/context regarding Denmark’s promising Euro Jury so far Average pts received when 2 jurors or less = 9.4 Average pts received when 3+ jurors = 4.4

🇳🇿 Colby Thickness (-140) Vs 🇺🇸 Vince Morales (+120) Wikicappers are fading Morales this week because of 3 losses in a row, but Thickness would lose to the same 3 guys. Morales could be the 🐶 of the week. #UFCPerth

I have seen many takes on this, but this is how I would categorize Europe

@HazelAppleyard 10 per pushup

$10 per push-up or $1 million?

Eurojury result if you weight each countries points by the amount of jurors in each country. I.e. ROW ranking weight 12 times more than Belgiums (12J Vs 1):

BREAKING: The free money farm on @Polymarket just went from 0.1% to 1% minutes ago. The top YES holder who keeps promoting his memecoin is still donating money to Polymarket traders. I just deposited $10,000 and put over $13,000 on this yield.

@escbetting @eurovisionbets @Bensvision

@eurovisionbets @Bensvision The pod is all aboard the Soren Express 🎉 🥳 👯🏻‍♀️

Time for our #Eurovision Jury Top-10 prediction! A special episode about the Js with a very special guest, @Bensvision sharing his wisdom and thoughts! Yes, 🇩🇰 is mentioned...

@ge_aldrig_upp I'm slightly confused tho why people now are saying Greece should be tying with Finland. It's been the case for months now. We don't have many stagings yet of songs. + eurojury is only right 6/10. It's slightly better then a coinflip.

- 🇬🇷 should *at least* be tying 🇫🇮 in odds - good result for 🇩🇰, could still theoretically win if Søren strikes the right vibe with televote, more likely IMHO to be lower top5 - 🇨🇾 🇮🇹 🇦🇱 all playing to sneak into top5 - 🇸🇪🇨🇿 should be safe Q - 🇮🇱 has no path to win #eurovision

@DrClownPhD It's haram

Is this an appropriate way to dress in public? 🤔

@Bensvision Who is the best then?

I join the 2nd best #eurovision betting podcast of all time to discuss their predicted jury top ten at ESC 2026. Jury voting might be very different this year with the new way they work.

Hopefully Polymarket is on precipice of replacing UMA, because the "oracle" that underpins the site is now a disinformation engine that has been taken over by rogue traders. (If you find the below post confusing, byzantine, stupid, or anything else, first of all that's probably partly my fault, and secondly that's also exactly what I am trying to convey: the resolution of markets is now a dizzying, corrupt mess.) -- The largest and most influential voter in the "oracle" that governs Polymarket's prediction market is no longer anyone with Risk Labs (UMA was created by a legit crypto company, but they've stopped updating UMA and largely abandoned it). It is now UMA Rocks, a collection of Polymarket traders. UMA Rocks decisions are made by various unqualified bozos, who have real-money positions in the markets they're voting to resolve, and thus have a strong incentives in resolving markets to something that personally benefits them. -- Which brings us to the market in question: corny loser Clavicular claimed/joked that he got a girl pregnant, as he has done in the past. He said she was pregnant within 10 days of meeting him. He offered no proof, and talks about it very vaguely, sometimes implying that it is true, sometimes implying that it is a joke. Polymarket has a relationship with Clavicular, and had a market up on a pregnancy announcement (we'll set aside whether Clavicular himself traded on this, I have no idea. He was aware of the market). Obviously a streamer is not inherently credible when his brand is making silly viral clips, and that is doubly true when the streamer is making vague comments. The rules correctly require a credible claim. It shouldn't expire yes until we get something...anything...that is credible. Common sense. Scrolling through the arguments, pretty much every single long-time user of Polymarket thinks it shouldn't count (even ironically including some yes holders). And as anyone who has tried to get pregnant with a partner will realize, his joke doesn't even make sense: it is next-to-impossible to go from sex to a positive pregnancy test within 10 days. But it IS going to expire to yes in a few hours for one reason: UMA Rocks has hijacked the voting process. A user named Scout (who was, at the time, one of the biggest yes holder and also a key UMA Rocks member) posted that it should be Yes because Clavicular is unimpeachable as a source on himself. Note here that Scout is already banned from Polymarket's discord server (very hard to do lol) for engaging in borderline criminal activity, before any of these events happened. Scout then propelled UMA Rocks to officially side with Yes. The second largest voter, a Risk Labs employee, then switched his vote after UMA Rocks voted (this was done out of self preservation, because if you vote on the losing side in UMA, you lose money). The vote was somewhat close in the first round, with "Yes" edging out "Too Early to Expire" in raw token votes (the vast majority of tokenholders voted "Too Early", but UMA Rocks led the small number of whales who actually decide the outcomes to voting "Yes"). Because of the way that UMA works -- it incentivizes the most popular answer rather than the truthful answer -- anything that is leading in a previous round is extremely likely to win. And so now the vote is overwhelmingly projected to go Yes. Clav's "announcement" was a few days ago, and we now know it is very unlikely that anyone is pregnant/girl was already kicked out of his house allegedly, and that it was extremely likely a viral joke from a streamer in need of positive PR...but the wheels are in motion and nobody is trying to stop it. -- Post-script: (1) Scout was kicked out of UMA Rocks a few hours ago for this scheme. (2) UMA Rocks has attempted to wield its influence in various markets since it became the largest holder of UMA a few weeks ago, often posting to flip the odds. But it also often ultimately fails, because Polymarket intercedes and clarifies against them. (3) Polymarket has strangely not clarified or commented on this one, despite it receiving a lot of attention. Which brings me to my final point. It's now been a year since the minerals market heist, where users lost millions of dollars to a fraudulent UMA scheme that took place over a weekend. We were assured that things would change. Unfortunately nothing has changed, and it has gotten far, far, far worse. UMA is far more vulnerable than it was a year ago, and the inmates are starting to take the asylum.

@ChaoticAna9 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Those spreads tho

New day, new sex. Let's play! What's your bet?🤣 I think this is easier to predict than Trump or the war in Iran.