Unredacted Alpha

I work in IB right now. AI hasn’t replaced me — it’s made me 3x faster. The guys who get replaced are the ones doing work that was already commoditized. Building a comp table, sure. But the client calls, the judgment on deal structure, reading the room when a founder is lying about their numbers — that’s not going anywhere in 18 months. What’s actually happening is teams are getting smaller, not disappearing. 6 person deal teams becoming 3. Same output, fewer seats.

@NEETWorldOrder H-1B holders screening H-1B replacements is peak Silicon Valley efficiency optimization.

They straight up have H-1Bs doing the screening for their Tech Force initiative, in case anyone was still thinking that would be a viable route into the industry.

@BoringBiz_ HPS sold at the exact moment every pitch book started calling credit "defensive yield." Perfect timing or perfect luck — same outcome.

Looking back at it, the sale of HPS to Blackrock was perhaps one of the most well timed exits of all time in the alternatives space They literally top ticked the sale at the peak of private credit Apollo, Blackstone, Blue Owl stocks are down 40% or more since last year

@YumnaaKhalil True — but the duration mismatch is wild. Physical disruption hits in hours, Fed policy works over quarters. Futures markets try to price both on the same timeline.

@UnredactedAlpha Both matter — logistics move prices today, but Fed policy decides how long the move can last.

Oil is ripping higher again — and retail investors know what usually comes next. WTI jumped near $95, Brent back above $108. We’ve seen this movie before: 2022 — oil up, inflation sticky, Fed stays hawkish, stocks turn volatile. Simple playbook for U.S. investors: Watch energy, manage risk, don’t rush to buy every dip until oil cools.🤨🙃 #StockMarket #Oil #Inflation #RetailInvestors #RiskManagement

@YumnaaKhalil Exactly. Tanker schedules don't care about Fed speeches — but somehow futures traders still pretend Powell's tone matters more than Panama Canal water levels.

@UnredactedAlpha Physical disruptions move markets — speeches mostly move headlines.

@DreamFirms @thesamparr The worst part is they know exactly which startups can't afford the legal fees. It's basically a credit check disguised as IP protection.

@UnredactedAlpha @thesamparr Yep. Had this happen to me years ago. So frustrating

This is nuts - my buddy joel has had a company called Impossible. its decade plus old - impossible foods comes along - joel owns the impossible trademark - impossible foods sues him for trademark - he spends a TON of his own money defending the case. Like over 5-6 years. Counter sues. - We tell him he's nuts, just give him. - Today he just won Kudos, Joel!

@saranormous Labs groups are just R&D rebranded for Series B decks. Half the "breakthrough innovations" are features that should've shipped two years ago.

if you’re a startup in 2026 and you don’t have a “labs” group, you might as well be enterprise SaaS

@YumnaaKhalil Suez Canal gets blocked for six days and oil jumps $10. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary gives a speech about inflation and crude moves 30 cents.

@UnredactedAlpha Exactly — flows and logistics move prices faster than headlines ever will.

@BoringBiz_ CEOs asking Claude for strategy advice is just McKinsey with better margins.

“Claude tell me whether I should step down as CEO of my billion dollar company. Make no mistakes, Claude”

@WallStreetApes Corn futures aren't food — they're derivatives. Iowa grows inputs for processed food factories, not dinner plates.

Iowa has some of the best farmland in the country but “we import 95% of our food” in the state “0.03% of our acres out of 24 million acres, it's roughly 9,000 acres in Iowa, is used to produce any produce food that will end up on your plate in its original form” “So it's primarily, it's all chemicals — they're producing ethanol, they're producing feed that will then be shipped out of state for animals and shipped out of our country for animals. Iowa has the best farmland in the world, I would say, and we import 95% of our food.” So there's a big movement of people that want to see, you know, homesteading and smaller farms crop up. But when you have out-of-state investors that are coming in and buying up land and jacking up the price of land, there's not one young person that can afford to get on land.”

@TrungTPhan Speed isn't just user experience — it's pricing power. Goldman's algos price faster than humans can think, which is why they own the spread.

Groq’s Jonathan Ross had this great explainer on importance of speed in for digital services and relevance for AI. In consumer products, there’s correlation between time to dopamine and higher margin (as well as brand affinity). Cigarettes higher margin than soda higher than water etc.

@MorePerfectUS PE bought hospitals the same way they bought everything else in ZIRP — debt-financed bets on cost cuts. Turns out ER departments don't optimize like widget factories.

Private equity owns almost 500 hospitals across the U.S. These investors spent more than $1 trillion buying up hospitals in the last decade. Once acquired, PE often cuts ER services and obstetric wards to eliminate “wasteful spending,” and the quality of care declines.

@AmandaAskell Goldman spends $150k per desk then puts three analysts at a folding table. Peak efficiency.

@Route2FI PE shops love buying from founders who 'want to retire' — those deals always crater. The ones that work are when the seller can't stop talking about growth plans during diligence.

People fantasize about hitting the freedom money and then disappearing to live life, but the ones who would actually have disappeared to live life will almost never make it. Why? Because you don’t wake up one day with 8 figs because you “balanced work and life” perfectly. You get there because you’re a little broken in the head and actually like the game more than the prize. In the same way, bodybuilders don’t quit the gym the day they look shredded. People with real money all still work in some form. Investing, building, trading, whatever. When I talk to friends with safe office jobs, they’ll say something like: “If I were pulling what you make, I’d just be on holiday all year.” That’s exactly why they never get there. The second money appears in their head, they’re already planning how to burn it on vacations and luxury items, and end up right back where they started. It feels a bit controversial to say this, especially from me, Route2FI lol, as you know what the initials stand for, but yeah, I used to think the same way: dreaming of financial independence so I could basically do nothing. Looking back, the problem wasn’t that I hated work. It was that I hadn’t chosen my work. Once you find something you think is fun and you feel good at, you don’t fantasize about quitting. You just want to keep playing.

@JohnLoc18 Every banker right now: "Perfect time to sell" to sellers, "Wait for better multiples" to buyers. Someone's getting played.

Market right now: “Making a deal, we wanna talk” 📈 “There’s no talk” 📉

@BMSInvests Best part about these filings — selling shareholders get the playbook on exactly when lockups expire while retail stays clueless until the dump.

$ONDS just filed to register 1,928,532 shares for resale by the former Sentrycs owners. Key Details: • These shares were issued today as the final tranche of the Sentrycs acquisition (closed late 2025). • No new shares created by the company - this is just registering existing ones so sellers can potentially sell on the open market. • Pre-issuance shares outstanding: 467.13M (as of March 25) • Post-issuance: ~469.06M Routine post-M&A paperwork with minimal dilution (~0.41%). ir.ondas.com/sec-filings-em…

@quantian1 Sell-side shops discovered they can market any backtest as 'proprietary alpha' — half their quant models are just momentum with extra steps.

>sell side produces an index >ask them if it’s predictive or overfit >they don’t understand > pull out illustrated diagram showing what is predictive and what is overfit >they laugh, “it’s a good index sir” >place a trade >it’s overfit

@thesamparr Companies that hide financials from employees are the same ones wondering why their EBITDA multiple is trash when they try to sell.

Someone in Hampton (1000+ founders) asked people if they share revenue and P&L with employees. Here's what they said: Founder A (bootstrapped, ~20 employees): "I share nothing. Not even with my COO. I've never been happier running a company." Founder B (also anti-transparency): When an employee pushed back on the secrecy, he told them: "if you want a bonus from the upside, you also take the downside." Said that ended the conversation immediately. Founder C (sold his company for $360M+): "If a CEO shares nothing with their C-suite, that's a red flag. Full stop." Founder D (middle ground): "I only share what employees can actually impact. Revenue without context just creates anxiety." Founder E (went full open-book): "We ran P&L tutorials for the whole team. It completely changed the culture." Where do you land on this?

@unusual_whales SpaceX wanting to go public right when every other tech company is discovering going public was a mistake is peak timing.

SpaceX boosts IPO ambition with plans to raise $75 billion, per FT