Venture Global Deep Dive

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Venture Global Deep Dive

Venture Global Deep Dive

@VGDeepDive

Independent investor following Venture Global developments. Not affiliated.

United States เข้าร่วม Temmuz 2025
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Venture Global Deep Dive
Venture Global Deep Dive@VGDeepDive·
Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel. How fast can you ramp up? "We're the fastest builder. We have available capacity at large scale. Just CP2 will generate several hundred billion dollars in sales of gas... We have the lowest long-term contract price available in the US market." $VG
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Yet another commodity guy
Obviously selectively defaulting / declaring force majeur only on the cheap contracts is not gonna fly in court. Pari passu usually means you have to reduce ALL outstanding commercial contracts by 17% if your claimed force majeure'd disability is 17% of your production. This is assuming the sales were FOB Ras Laffan. If the sales were CnF Japan for example, this would be even more fragile.
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli

🚨BREAKING: Qatar just declared force majeure on LNG contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. For up to 5 years. Here's what the CEO just told In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy just confirmed the damage from Iran's attack on Ras Laffan. It's worse than anyone thought. → 2 out of 14 LNG trains damaged → 1 of 2 gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities damaged → 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG offline for 3-5 years → 17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity gone → $20 billion annual revenue loss → $26 billion in damaged facilities (the CEO said they "should not be attacked") QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on long term LNG supply contracts to: → Italy → Belgium → South Korea → China For up to 5 years. Additional exports declining: → Condensates: Down 24% → LPG: Down 13% → Naphtha: Down 6% → Sulphur: Down 6% → Helium: Down 14% The damaged trains: → Train S4 and S6: 30% owned by ExxonMobil, rest by QatarEnergy Production cannot restart until hostilities cease. What this means? 12.8 million tonnes per year = 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity. 17% of its capacity just disappeared for 3-5 years. Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China: These countries had long-term contracts with Qatar. Force majeure means those contracts are suspended. They now have to compete in spot markets for replacement cargoes. Against each other. And against every other buyer scrambling for LNG. $20 billion per year in lost revenue for Qatar. $26 billion in facilities damaged. The only country with capacity to absorb Qatari volumes at scale is the United States. I wrote a full breakdown on how this shift benefits US LNG producers and which stocks are positioned to win from Qatar's structural supply loss👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan… #Iran #Qatar #LNG

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Venture Global Deep Dive
The TTF-HH spread has moved up, but not all that much, compared to a week ago. These are not conditions for massive demand destruction (what @ira_joseph says). They are higher prices, for a longer period of time. $NEXT and $LNG benefited from this dynamic today because they have new capacity further out along the curve that will benefit from better SPA negotiation conditions. Changes in 2026 prices don't move the needle for $NEXT because it isn't producing yet.
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Brandon Myers
Brandon Myers@BrandonMyers10·
Do we think $VG goes to all time highs?
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Venture Global Deep Dive
Venture Global Deep Dive@VGDeepDive·
Watching for: 1) More attacks on LNG infrastructure. 2) Timeline to restart surviving infrastructure. 3) Timeline to repair damage. 4) Delay estimate for expansion project.
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Venture Global Deep Dive
Venture Global Deep Dive@VGDeepDive·
“Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said.” “State-owned QatarEnergy may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China due to the two damaged ‌trains, ⁠Kaabi said.  "I mean, these are long-term contracts that we have to declare force majeure. We already declared, but that was a shorter term. Now it's whatever the period is," he said.” reuters.com/business/energ…
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Venture Global Deep Dive
Venture Global Deep Dive@VGDeepDive·
Congratulations to Alaska LNG for being officially certified as "No Longer Crazy" after this month's events. @alaskalng
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Crossroads
Crossroads@Kross_Roads·
$VG We have a breakout on LNG futures. TTF (Dutch/EU exchange) is up meaningfully following the news from Qatar yesterday, as is JKM (Japan/Korea; not pictured). The spread between Henry Hub in the US and these keeps widening, to the benefit of Venture Global.
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Venture Global Deep Dive
Venture Global Deep Dive@VGDeepDive·
How will we know the extent of damage? @gomatsuo points out that the number of LNG vessels that Nakilat (QatarLNG shipping operator) puts on the market will be a predictor: 10-30 vessels - few months; 40 or more - significant, perhaps years. x.com/gomatsuo/statu…
松尾 豪 Go Matsuo@gomatsuo

QatarLNGの船舶運航会社、Nakilatが追加でLNG船をリース市場に出す規模によって、停止期間がある程度予測できそう。10-30隻なら数か月、40隻以上なら施設損傷は重大で、Qatar Energyは復旧まで年単位と考えている可能性があると推測。

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Venture Global Deep Dive
Venture Global Deep Dive@VGDeepDive·
Qatar after the Iran attack - what's been hit at Rass Laffan for LNG? I overlaid the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) images with an old master plan of the site. This is as of data available at 5:30am EST. $VG $LNG $NEXT
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