rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱

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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱

rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱

@_rainerds

Tweets are my own | Brooklyn | 🇭🇹 | Nerd @Kalshi | @Neo

เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2014
217 กำลังติดตาม674 ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱
rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱@_rainerds·
I have a confession to make. We thought Kalshi would be an instant success. Of course we did; our team was full of evangelists and missionaries who believed in prediction markets. Better yet, Tarek and Luana had already done the hard part: spending two years to get an exchange license. But... we had no exchange. What followed was an eight-month gauntlet of technical challenges, business negotiations, and regulatory whiplash. When we finally launched, we thought we’d made it. But no one cared. This is one of many stories that defines Kalshi. Even through painful, consistent, and creative work, growth was never promised. But the hard times built us up—they taught us how to create from nothing. We fought for every inch of growth and figured out what worked by trying everything that didn't. When no one else wanted to, we built our own clearinghouse, brokerage, and liquidity. We yearned for growth so badly that we risked the company to democratize elections. $11B sounds surreal, but we all knew we'd make it here. And we still have so much more to give. Time to put our money where our mouth is. I like our odds.
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_

Kalshi raised $1B at an $11B valuation. A decade ago, only a few thousand people knew what a prediction market was. Eighteen months ago, most prediction markets were banned - until we overcame the government to set them free. Over the past seven years, our community has opened up an entirely new category. Today, Kalshi is trusted, used, and loved by millions of people. It’s a part of everyday culture, and it’s driving one of the most important shifts in consumer behavior in recent history. The time has finally come for prediction markets to achieve their full potential and we are intent on making that happen. To all the believers and the early adopters: thank you.

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Mitch
Mitch@MitchTweets·
@patriottakes How is this legal when I can’t even bet in my home state on a college basketball game lmao
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PatriotTakes 🇺🇸
PatriotTakes 🇺🇸@patriottakes·
Polymarket is allowing users to place bets on the rescue of U.S. pilots shot down over Iran. Disgusting.
PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 tweet media
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D.R. Miller
D.R. Miller@drmiller166·
@patriottakes Congress needs to ban these “bet on anything” websites. It’s so wide open for corruption.
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Whether you like it or not, the federal supremacy clause means that if something falls under a federal regulation by law of Congress - no state can reclassify it. They can choose not to enforce a federal law, but they cannot choose to replace it.
zoomer@zoomerfied

[ ZOOMER ] THE CTFC AND DOJ FILE LAWSUIT AGAINST THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, ITS GOVERNOR, AND ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR TRYING TO REGULATE PREDICTION MARKETS, SAYING THEY HAVE NO AUTHORITY: SYNOPTIC

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Benjamin Freeman
Benjamin Freeman@benwfreeman1·
BIG NEWS: I’m joining the Kalshi team! My main goal is going to be growing Kalshi’s political / election markets in terms of visibility, volume, and influence, and showing the world why these markets are so important. This means that I have given up trading on Kalshi. While I loved being a trader and loved giving away “alpha” to my followers, I can no longer do so due to Kalshi’s policies. It was a hard tradeoff for sure. From my days of interning at the White House, starting my own election prediction Youtube channel, to starting trading on Kalshi’s election markets in October 2024, politics, and specifically predicting elections has always been my passion. Since starting tweeting in October 2025, I wanted to show a new audience of why I believe in the power of election prediction markets. I’ve 20x’ed my followers since starting then, and have had a blast doing it along the way with y’all. Now, my goal is to drive liquidity to these markets and make them a bigger part of the cultural zeitgeist and political landscape. Having very liquid, high volume political prediction markets makes our political system better. More accurate forecasts benefit traders and non-traders alike, and growth in political prediction markets translates into higher participation and interest in our political system, which is good for democracy. These markets are built on rationality and probabilistic thinking, which is desperately needed in today’s corrupted information environment. These markets can be incredibly useful for campaigns, political commentators, casual political viewers, fundraisers / bundlers, investors wanting to hedge political risk, investors wanting political exposure, small dollar campaign donors, academics, and everyone in between. Political prediction markets are for everyone. I’m really excited to be a part of the team that mainstreams these markets. Feel free to reach out to me, if you have any ideas on how to grow Kalshi’s political / election markets! Thank you, all!
Benjamin Freeman tweet media
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran·
Kalshi FINALLY calls out the BS lobbying. The insider trading and “death markets” people want banned are on Polymarket, which is based offshore in Panama. It is already *illegal* on CFTC regulated exchanges like Kalshi and the CME. It is SHOCKING we are still comparing offshore entities to those who spend **years** getting properly regulated. If you’re fed up with these illegal behaviors, we need to set the record straight on where they’re coming from or maybe run for office in Panama.
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) tweet media
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
Mick Bransfield
Mick Bransfield@MickBransfield·
Dustin Gouker is soliciting information from prediction market startups. He's also a paid consultant to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, which is involved in litigation with Kalshi, Polymarket, & Robinhood. Think very carefully before you sign up.
Mick Bransfield tweet mediaMick Bransfield tweet media
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Gavin Newsom to ban California officials from insider betting on prediction markets, per POLITICO
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
Bloomberg
Bloomberg@business·
Kalshi has secured a license allowing it to offer margin trading to users, a feature that would make the prediction market platform more appealing to sophisticated institutional investors bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
Chi Ossé
Chi Ossé@OsseChi·
.@nycmayor and I are fast-tracking more affordable housing, starting right here in Bed-Stuy. I’m proud to stand with @NYCMayor to announce the Neighborhood Builders Program, which will fast-track housing on city-owned land and cut the time to select a developer nearly in half!
Chi Ossé tweet mediaChi Ossé tweet media
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱
rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱@_rainerds·
@davidhogg111 Polymarket International is not legal for Americans and these markets are illegal in the CEA. If Americans are using it, they should be held liable.
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran·
The laws on CFTC regulated event contracts are *stricter* than gambling laws. Sportsbooks can frontrun, price differently for different individuals, freeze trades, re-order transactions inflight, ban winners, and nullify events subjectively. Prediction markets cannot. What regulation applies to sportsbooks that doesn’t apply to prediction markets that actually makes a real consumer protection difference?
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
Alex Cuoci
Alex Cuoci@AlexCuoci·
Startups are hard
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rainer 🇭🇹🌹🌱 รีทวีตแล้ว
Tarek Mansour
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_·
The rule of law applies to everyone - including state governments. The Arizona Attorney General’s charges are baseless and a clear overreach. It’s gamesmanship from a politician who’s up for reelection. The charges claim that putting money on “a contingent future event or occurrence” is illegal. If they can bring these criminal charges against Kalshi, they could do the same to traditional derivatives on CME and Nasdaq, from options trading, to interest rate swaps and grain futures. This is exactly why federal law is not optional: states cannot override it for political maneuvers or special interests. We filed suit in federal court against Arizona last week to address this directly. Instead of letting the federal court evaluate the case on the merits, the AG is attempting to subvert the appropriate judicial process by making an end run with sham charges in state court. If this were about consumer protection, the state would focus on predatory practices of the gambling industry’s addiction-driven business model. Instead, a regulated exchange is being targeted to protect incumbents and prevent consumers from choosing. But we have close to 400k customers in Arizona, about 5% of the state’s population and growing, and we will fight for them. We will not be intimidated and we will keep building.
Warren Petersen@votewarren

I’m troubled by the decision by AG Mayes to pursue a twenty-count criminal indictment against Kalshi. Prediction markets are a service that is expressly permitted under federal law. See 7 U.S. Code § 7a-2(c). Arizona citizens and businesses use these for lawful, legitimate purposes. AG Mayes’s criminal actions echo the Biden Administration’s pursuit of regulation by enforcement against crypto companies, where federal bureaucrats tried to apply maximum pressure to put financial innovators out of business. Thankfully, the people spoke in the 2024 election, and America is now the crypto capital of the world. To the extent that additional regulation of Kalshi and other prediction markets is needed, it should be done through the lawmaking processes by the people’s representatives.

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Dally G
Dally G@dallygwillikers·
@MorePerfectUS This isn't a law already? Such criminals running our government.
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More Perfect Union
More Perfect Union@MorePerfectUS·
Senator Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar have introduced a bill that would prohibit prediction markets from offering wagers on “government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome."
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Mike Selig
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig·
The Arizona Attorney General today filed criminal charges against one of our registered exchanges related to prediction markets. This is a jurisdictional dispute and entirely inappropriate as a criminal prosecution. The @CFTC is watching this closely and evaluating its options.
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