Andrew Arbon
1.1K posts


This is the highest CAPE I've ever seen modelled for the UK, and potentially the highest we'll ever see.
The risk of severe thunderstorms begins tomorrow and could continue right through to the end of the week. Monday currently looks like the most likely day for widespread thunderstorm development, as clear triggers are present. There is much more uncertainty from Tuesday through Friday. While models continue to show extreme instability, they currently lack obvious triggers, although that could change as we get closer.
Even taking a conservative approach, CAPE values of 2,000–5,000 J/kg appear possible across much of the UK, particularly across southern and central areas. These are exceptionally high values for the UK and would support severe thunderstorms and potentially supercells, especially where strong wind shear is present.
Very frequent lightning, large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding could all be possible at various points between Monday and Friday if storms develop.
Tomorrow may see a more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms, particularly along the M4 corridor, including areas around Bristol, Gloucester, Swindon, and extending into North Wales.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 30s°C, while dew points could climb into the low to mid 20s°C. This combination is creating an extremely unstable airmass and is the reason such extraordinary CAPE values are being forecast.
I do not say this lightly: if sufficient triggers develop to release this instability, we could be looking at a historic week of severe weather by UK standards.




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@JaysonBoi2000 He let's his obsessions with storms clouds his judgment this forcast no one else had forcasted yet his was forcasting storms just cause he wanted them
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@arbon_andr99873 He is a weirdo, got me blocked as well for confronting him about climate hysteria.
(I do know the climate is getting bad, and I’m aware of the impacts.)
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@AskNationwide @MichaelFra89678 I have a current account n got nothing but I know others with a current account did get it no mortgage though picked at random me thinks
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So @AskNationwide are giving away £100 to customers again, But only to people with a mortgage, What happens to the people who haven’t got a mortgage and have an account, They get nothing !! No money, No Mortgage. Makes sense ……
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The storm today was fun but the most important thing was to get another 8.4mm in the bank
Just one more rain day to come before we embark on what I believe could be an extended largely dry spell
Click thru at least 2x quoted tweets for details 👇
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatch
Regarding the quoted tweet below What we have are a series of high pressure ridges coming along In between those ridges, it may turn briefly less warm and settled but it won't be long at all until the next ridge of high pressure builds back in and it's dry and warm again
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@MrMarkH7 @secondtierpod Andy Johnson and Clive mendonca oh and Devon white
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@Met4CastUK One in Ipswich caused flash flooding big bangs frequent lightning
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@LondonSnowWatch The amount of other accounts getting all silly expecting storms at 6pm lol
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I would Expect Thunderstorm to start to develop around 18:00 (6 PM) - 19:00 (7 PM) today. With the Black box being the first possible risk area with the pink polygon being the secondary risk area for Thunderstorms and Lightning, with the areas in both the black and pink polygon (red box) having the highest chance of Thunderstorms this evening.
I will continue to update the situation on here over the next few hours

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