Bitcoin Mark

Is $48K still on the cards?

When re-entering the market in 3-6 months from now, I'm going to be super conservative and not try to catch the bottom at all. This is because I am swing trading BTC and not entering the market for the first time. As it stands, my plan is to mostly re-enter the market around $51k. I feel that nearly guarantees an entry (which for me results in more BTC than I started with, which I will be happy with). I don't need to stress of missing out and feeling like I need to chase the market higher later on if I were to miss the bottom. But if I had fresh capital to inject in the market, then I'd start DCAing at $50k and keep buying as it drops down ($45k... $40k... etc). BTC could realistically go as low as $35k this cycle, imo. However, the odds of it reaching lower and lower levels decreases in probability as the price goes lower. Originally I had my main buy target set lower, but I had a talk with myself and weighed the pros and cons of lower targets and it just didn't justify the risk of missing an entry. Again, that's because I'm swing trading and not entering my position for the first time. Also, time is a factor. It depends on what BTC price action does in the coming months. If BTC goes sideways for 6 months then I would raise my buy target to $61k or wherever makes sense at that time, which is still below my sell prices.

A short history of Ben Cowens Trades: Lets dive into the crypto verse... March 4th, 2021: 800,000 people listened to these predictions he made while Bitcoin was above $60k: ❌"Eth to $10k, plus or minus a few thousand." ❌"ADA - between $5 - $10 for its cycle peak in 21." ❌"$100,000 - $150,000 Bitcoin peak in 2021." His reasoning? The 4 year cycle is never wrong, and altcoins always outperform Bitcoin in the post halving year. LOOK AT DESCRIPTION OF THIS VIDEO: "Come stake your ADA with me." How well have those people performed since they locked up their ADA, and staked with Ben? ADA is currently 28 cents, down +70% in dollars since Ben's mega viral video, and down over 93% priced in Bitcoin. But some of you will say, "That was 5 years ago, he has recently been telling everyone he's a Bitcoin maxi who has told people to not hold altcoins." Ben does routinely say this in his videos, but lets investigate that claim... October 2023: ❌Calling for a retest of $15k, OR LOWER, literally days before Bitcoin rallied from $26k to $76k, in 4 straight green monthly candles. (Bitcoins BIGGEST & fastest rally in the past 3 years) His reasoning? "It was the pre-halving year, and Bitcoin isn't supposed to rally before the halving because of the 4 year cycle." Here is the really bad one... Mid 2024: Bear posting for months everytime Bitcoin fell below the 20W SMA & 21W EMA. Bitcoin had its 2nd biggest rally days later as it ran from $60k to $100k in 4 straight green monthly candles. (Bitcoins 2nd BIGGEST rally in the past 3 years) His reasoning? It was the halving year, we don't normally see parabolas formed in halving years. Now, let me answer some of the questions from my posts yesterday, so I don't waste many hours doing so. Ben has made so many other wrong calls, just go and watch his videos and look at his tweets. I'm not the first person whose been immediately blocked for pointing out his wrong trades.(There are literally hundreds of people blocked for doing so🤣) I'm not attacking Ben. Ben seems like a nice guy. I'm not salty because I got REKT this cycle. If anything, Ben's bearishness has put me in a healthy position this cycle tbh ahaha. BUT, I am attacking the idea that the 4 year cycle is something that can never be wrong. Ben also frames himself as some genius who hasn't promoted any altcoins for the past 4 years, BUT makes videos about Ethereum every week? "Ethereum: Dubious speculation." Now, everyones wrong, especially me, am I just salty that Ben has more followers than me? Another great question from my posts yesterday. I'm always wrong, everyone is, but I don't make money from encouraging people to trade and stake ADA and ETH. Ben's entire business model is making charts and indicators and presenting his price predictions as gospel. He makes money from encouraging "dubious speculation." Ben and I are not competitors, we have completely different viewerships, so this post has nothing to do with competition or rivalry. We have completely different audiences, mines a lot smaller too lol. I've been making YouTube videos for 6 years, and I've only ever partnered with companies that help people: Buy Bitcoin Mine Bitcoin. Take your Bitcoin off exchanges. Put your Bitcoin in your own wallet. Back up your wallet with Titanium. Time lock your Bitcoin wallet. While I'm at it, kudos to Ben for making videos consistently for so many years. Also, I think Ben presents more signal than most people in the "crypto" space. But... The bull run is coming, and I think a lot of people are going to get REKT, blindly listening to people who frame themselves as experts, when they're not. It's even more concerning when these people have been constantly wrong, have millions of followers, and block anyone as soon as they point out they were wrong. We have so much evidence that we can't blindly trust models. 2018 - The $1,300 Bitcoin prediction made by the "Hyperwave model," failed. 2022 - The stock to flow model failed. 2024 - The 4 year cycle model already failed, when Bitcoin hit a new ATH BEFORE the 2024 halving... 2026 - The Bitcoin/Gold power law model failed. The Bitcoin Power law priced in dollars will be next... Be safe out there guys, happy Saturday. Go and self custody your Bitcoin, and stop trading it because some guru says you can "multiply your Bitcoins," doing so.