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12K posts

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@guyinchi982

Chicago เข้าร่วม Kasım 2022
308 กำลังติดตาม134 ผู้ติดตาม
Multifamily Madness
Multifamily Madness@MultifamilyMad·
Can someone explain to me how this country can open up any more car washes? Everywhere I go I see a new one opening with several already nearby it. I don’t get it.
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D@guyinchi982·
@RMADefense What the fuck even is 4.6mm
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Nicholas Name
Nicholas Name@NicholasName001·
@curtis_yarvin I think it's weird that our degenerate society with improvished young people, "sex positive" women, and lonely men hasn't produced massive amounts of prostitution.
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Curtis Yarvin
Curtis Yarvin@curtis_yarvin·
Translation: for those who can still get their hands on a dollar, blowjobs will cost $3 and you’ll get 5-10 a day without even thinking on it
Alex Imas@alexolegimas

New essay on the economics of structural change and the post-commodity future of work. 1. Almost any question about the impact of advanced AI on the economy needs to start at the same place: what is still scarce? Answer that, and the analysis becomes pretty straightforward. This essay explores what becomes scarce if AI really can replicate most of what humans do in production, and what this mean for the future of jobs. 2. My conjecture, working through the economics: labor reallocates across sectors, and the sector it reallocates to has properties that keep labor a meaningful share of the economy. Ultimately this is about the structure of demand itself. For this, we have to go back to Girard, Augustine and Rousseau: once people's base needs are met, their preferences shift to comparative motives (e.g., status, exclusivity, social desirability). This motive is inherently non-satiated. 4. The key paper is Comin, Lashkari, and Mestieri (Econometrica 2021). As people get richer, they don't buy proportionally more of everything. They shift spending toward sectors with higher income elasticity. They estimate income effects account for 75%+ of observed structural change. 5. The ironic consequence: the sector that gets automated becomes a smaller share of the economy, not a larger one. Agriculture got massively more productive and its share of employment collapsed. Manufacturing too. The "stagnant" sectors absorb the spending and the jobs. 6. So the question is: which sectors have high income elasticity in a post-AGI world? I argue it's what I call the relational sector. Categories where the human isn't just an input into production, it is part of the value. 7. Why does the relational sector have high income elasticity? Because human desire has a mimetic, relational dimension. We don't just want things for their intrinsic properties. We want what others want, and we want it more when others can't have it. Girard, Rousseau, Augustine, and Hobbes all saw this. 8. In work with Kristóf Madarász, we showed this experimentally: WTP roughly doubles when a random subset of others is excluded from the good. And in new work with Graelin Mandel, AI involvement kills the premium. Human-made art gains 44% from exclusivity; AI-made art only 21%. 9. This all comes together for the core argument. The sector that absorbs spending as AI makes commodity production cheap is one where human provenance is part of the value, and demand for it grows faster than income. Exactly the profile that keeps labor meaningful. 10. To be clear about the claim: I'm NOT saying aggregate labor share must rise. It may fall. The claim is about sectoral composition, i.e., where expenditure and employment go once commodities get cheap, and the fact that the sector that will absorb reallocated labor maps to a substantial component of human preferences and desire. 11. If you're interested in the formal model, a linked companion technical note works out all the economics. Read the essay here: aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-be…

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Uubzu v4
Uubzu v4@uubzu·
“Credible reports of a teen trend” Call me crazy but I think he might be talking about crowds of feral niggers. If a warning is important enough to put DO NOT in caps, should the subject be couched in euphemism?
Mayor Brandon Johnson@ChicagosMayor

Chicago, there are credible reports of a teen trend forming in Hyde Park later today. Parents, be aware of where your children are going this evening. DO NOT allow your children to attend one of these gatherings; they are dangerous and can often turn violent. Together we can keep our youth and our communities safe.

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D@guyinchi982·
@Duderichy These companies need to exile every single market researcher they have on staff.
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D@guyinchi982·
@fleshsimulator You can solve every problem in the US by just executing the 1000 worst people in each state.
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D@guyinchi982·
@feelsdesperate @tedfrank It’s NYC, who cares, let them fail so the rest of the country can have a laugh.
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Coddled Affluent Professional
Coddled Affluent Professional@feelsdesperate·
Grocery stores have been ‘solved.’ They’ve been solved. Anything with a 2% profit margin is solved. Maybe you could wring some more efficiency on an industry level with improved logistics but that’s going to an incredibly complex technical endeavor above the pay grade of municipal government. That’s why the ‘public grocery stores’ are such a good example of Dem Soc silliness. They’re a political set piece with ~0% chance of any net public benefit and an extremely high likelihood of wasted resources and opportunity costs.
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Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli@MartinShkreli·
This is false. Disney paid $1.2B in taxes last year. Your inept staff is confusing an accounting accrual reversal with cash taxes paid. This is your problem. You don't know facts and shoot from the hip.
Martin Shkreli tweet media
Elizabeth Warren@SenWarren

If you paid even a penny in federal income tax last year, you paid more than: Tesla Southwest Disney Live Nation HP United PayPal CVS Health Palantir Citigroup PG&E 3M That's right. They paid $0 in federal income tax. It's time for big corporations to pay their fair share.

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Eric Matheny 🎙️
Eric Matheny 🎙️@ericmmatheny·
Flat tax. Whether you make $1000 or $100 million. A fixed percentage for everybody. And that’s it. A one-page tax form. No bullshit. Everybody pays a reasonable and equitable amount. Everyone - from the wealthiest to the poorest - have skin in the game.
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D@guyinchi982·
@Spycyzygy If it makes you feel any better, in my last house the heater started popping so I drained it, just to find out the drainage plumbing just led to the ceiling below.
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D@guyinchi982·
@washghost1 How my girlfriend tries to clean my electronics
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D@guyinchi982·
@CGB24816 @elonmusk So slightly less dangerous than the drivers from Bangladesh
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Colin G Brown
Colin G Brown@CGB24816·
@elonmusk Imagine 80tons travelling down the road on AI auto pilot, and it gets a "glitch". 80 ton out of control missile is what will happen. Total lunatics pushing for this crap! Mark this post for future reference! It will be regarded as prophecy in the future
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Spencer
Spencer@scotsrule08·
FSD 14.3.1 overtake strategy: 1.Use exit ramp to pass truck 2.Don't pass truck 3.Take the exit 4.Reroute Idk if I like this kind of sentience 😂😂😂
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乔华莘
乔华莘@qiaohuanxin·
一个视频讲清楚无人机与坦克的斗法。
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D@guyinchi982·
@saxvalhalla @cremieuxrecueil By the time they get high speed rail Spirit Airlines will be offering supersonic 3hr flights from SF to NYC. So never.
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That Guy
That Guy@saxvalhalla·
@cremieuxrecueil Okay, so California is messed up, but it is stupid rich and has many people who know what they are doing. If they do manage to get high speed rail and affordable universal healthcare, will you be willing to update?
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Crémieux
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil·
🔒🔁 I’m fine with paying Scandinavia level taxes to California because they pay for vital services like single payer and high speed rail
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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·
It is not a right. No one is entitled to another man's labor. You might, however, argue that healthcare is a vital service which should be publicly financed, similar to firefighting or law enforcement. We could debate those merits at length.
Tom Steyer@TomSteyer

Health care is a right, not a product.

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D@guyinchi982·
@ChrisMartzWX Ironically the local sales taxes are more than enough to pay for those things. The income taxes (which earn substantially more revenue) just get lit on fire.
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Chris Martz
Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX·
There are 340 million American citizens. If a state- and/or county-level sales tax cannot fund those basic services, then our tax dollars are not being put to good use and spending cuts need to be made elsewhere. Basic arithmetic.
J@Jw8yey

@ChrisMartzWX Would you call 911 if there was a fire? Do you use public roads? Side walks?

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D@guyinchi982·
@CyrianThe @ccmembersonly Based on experience no matter how bad you are at drywall, the guy charging $1000 to install an outlet will do a worse job. The outlet is the easy part. The drywall guy will come and charge $2000 to fix what he did
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cyrian the hollow
cyrian the hollow@CyrianThe·
@ccmembersonly Electrician quoted $1k to add two outlets to a bedroom. Not even adding a circuit just tapping into already existing outlets. Second one quoted $1500. No idea if I’m getting bent over or that’s just how much it costs.
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D@guyinchi982·
@sarg_nt @bowtiedgerman Sure, I’ll subtract the 2% annual appreciation after I spend $15k a year maintaining the house, and then add the 12% loss from not having the money in an actual investment portfolio.
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rip
rip@sarg_nt·
@guyinchi982 @bowtiedgerman Ok but what about the equity you earn on the house during the years your kid live with you, would you subtract that?
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