J. Brant Arseneau

Professor, my model shows over 2T. This is based on a multi-use platform that owns the only full AI stack in the world - orchestration (cursor), LMM and data (Xai), Chip design, and chip manufacturing (terafab). the addressable market is 23T. This is the platform that allows Elon to be planetary. Each will benefit from the stack first, then cislunar and then deep space. Chips are the predominate constraint - the stack will allow him to ease this constrain while gaining revenue to fund muti-markets (space). i argued with people at Ares, Goldman, JPMorgan about Teslas valuation 15 years ago. The global market is reconstituting around abundent cognition and old assumptions are not accurate.

I think SpaceX is an engineering marvel, and I would love to own it, but not if is it priced at $1.75 trillion or $2 trillion, as rumored. You may feel differently, but if you do, you will get the Musk package with its good and bad ingredients! It will be a ride! bit.ly/3OYYWPp

The SpaceX IPO is coming, and it will be a doozy, a futuristic company (spaceships, satellites and AI), a founder who will keep things interesting (Musk) and a price tag that may make it the most highly priced IPO of all time. bit.ly/3OYYWPp

@FutureJurvetson If you do this it would be my ultimate car.

Ford v. Ferrari v. Tesla The boys’ GT40 slot car inspired me — the legendary race car that finally beat Ferrari at Le Mans in ’66. It’s 40” tall with a bubble roof to fit a helmet. What if we made an electric version with a Tesla drive train… faster than the original...

@FutureJurvetson @KnowledgeArchiv @elonmusk Love this! If you ever circulate your museum pieces - I would like to submit a request for this.

@KnowledgeArchiv @elonmusk Another cool page

The Tesla "T" logo comes from Nikola Tesla's original electric motor patent btw Pretty cool.

Agreed. Dumb cadence is the fingerprint. The stranger part is everyone running their work through AI told not to sound like AI. Soon people will catch on. It was never the fluency. It is the epistemic weight behind the words. I spend a lot of time on my thoughts and insights. If you don’t find them interesting that’s cool - but I do the work.

@jbarseneau I love how you can immediately tell when an article/post/piece of media is written by AI. It's all in the cadence and sentence structure. Short, choppy sentences. Very dynamic, with the classic "this isn't ____, it's ____."

Book summaries are the wrong use of AI open.substack.com/pub/jbarseneau…

Agreed. And the under-appreciated part is what you get alongside the new system. The rewrite forces the business logic out of vendor heads and into written form. You end up with working software and a real specification of what the business actually does. Two assets instead of one. The software depreciates. The institutional knowledge compounds.

most enterprise software costs more to maintain per year than it cost to build. that's the entire business model of your current vendor. every modernization project in the last decade has one of two outcomes. it goes 2-3x over budget and ships late. or it gets cancelled and the legacy system stays. why? nobody can extract the business logic from the old system. it lives in vendor heads. in stack overflow threads. in a comment from 2014 that says "don't touch this." AI just broke that model. an insurer we worked with replaced an $8M/year legacy vendor with a purpose-built system. $21M saved over four years. the maintenance era is ending. the rewrite era is starting. and it's faster than your CFO's last modernization RFP. reach out to us sales@8090.ai to vent about your current vendor.

@green_fuels Thanks Co Builder. I am glad it was useful.

@jbarseneau Nicely written analysis, thank you 🙏

@Macrohard2026 I’m glad it help you. That is the intent. It also gives you some key jump off points to do your own research and dig in. You got to do the work. More at 33fg.com

@jbarseneau Thank you. Definitely have a better understanding now of what this is all about.

@MarsmanQuansun Thanks Marsman - we will continue to search for the deepest insights. More at 33fg.com.

@jbarseneau Great insights.

@vishivishx Thank you Vishnu. We are dedicated to focusing on the epistemics and providing you with the full picture. There is more research at 33fg.com

@jbarseneau An excellent piece and the best analysis of this deal I've seen - keep it up!

@chamath He has the whole stack now, and arguably the most human of all - the symbolic orchestration layer.

The game theory in AI has shifted. Having a leading foundational model is important but increasingly it is the zoning approved, powered land that is the gating bottleneck. Add turnkey access to silicon and it’s checkmate. If you have that, you have immense negotiating leverage right now. As data centers get voted down, this leverage will only increase. Elon just proved it with Cursor. Now imagine the deals that OpenAI and Anthropic will have to do in the next few years? The Amazon-Anthropic deal was an appetizer. If you are a sharp on the other side who owns the right assets… 🤤

@justmy2cents111 Apologies for that. That’s more a reflection of my ADD rather than and tools we use.

@jbarseneau The points are all over the place. Seems like AI

@STFUnion Thanks Tyler - we have a method of epistemic research that helps us look at all apspects. Our mandate is to present the knowledge tree we build as is.

@jbarseneau Very good key points

@BjornCPT Thanks Bjorn - our group has this as a research topic to follow and analysis ongoing. I have an odd background (neural networks in 1989) and then 40 years which hopefully allows us to bring a fresh 360 view of this.

@jbarseneau Thank for the deep insight and some points I did not even think about.

@kizi_ug Thanks! I’m just lucky this is right in my wheelhouse. Cheers.

@jbarseneau This is beautifully put together! The 4 core parts to having end-to-end AI. I see the surface part as the cameras on Tesla vehicles. The Moat of Tsla FSD is the Cameras not even the cars themselves. With Cursor's Surface, such data, signals and Moat could be easily replicated

Elon made another very important move. This is very strategic and not IPO dressing - we believe you should pay attention to this. With Cursor he now has 100% of the AI stack - (1) Compute substrate (2) LLMs (3) deterministic orchestration layer - Macrohard….

Golden source of requirements that creates the code - over and over with the same constraints. software maintenance has never had a better chance and institutional memory is now possible in the software domian.

Open models keep coming…