jsperera

@Lars_Kruse_1973 glänzend! der punkt mit der aufklärung kann noch erweitert werden mit mediengesteuerter polarisierung, boulevardisierung/infantilisierung des diskurses, diabolisierung/ausgrenzung „ketzerischer“ meinungen und selektiver ideologischer missbrauch der wissenschaft als moralkeule.

Unsere Krise in D muss als eine Krise des Westens verstanden werden. Sie ist zu 100% hausgemacht. Das Ergebnis vieler falscher Entwicklungen und Entscheidungen, die alle - isoliert betrachtet - irgendwie handhabbar sind, in der Summe aber katastrophal wirken. - Atomausstieg und Energiewende verteuern die Energie. Die Schwerindustrie und das verarbeitende Gewerbe leiden besonders. Aber teure Energiepreise wirken auch auf die Bürger wie eine extra Steuer. - Die illegale Migration belastet die Sozialsysteme und verschlechtert die innere Sicherheit sowie die Qualität der Schulen. - Zahllose (gutgemeinte aber teure) Vorschriften auf Ebene EU, Länder, Bund, Gemeinden verteuern und verzögern Investitionen, die Investitionsquote sinkt. Infrastrukturprojekte dauern absurd lange und werden horrend teuer. - Westliche Werte der Aufklärung (Säkularismus, Wissenschaft als Wahrheitssuche) werden zugunsten von Gefühlen und falscher Toleranz relativiert. - Politiker wie Scholz ("ich kann mich nicht erinnern") und Trump (hier beliebiges Zitat einfügen) erodieren gesellschaftliche Werte. Das Lügen wird salonfähig. - Wirtschaft und Handel werden in Schulen und ÖR-Medien als schädliche, möglichst zu vermeidende Aktivität dargestellt. Junge Menschen streben in den öffentlichen Dienst, Unternehmer sterben aus, die Gesellschaft wird extrem risikoavers. - Fortschritt wird ganz überwiegend kritisch gesehen. Apokalyptische Erzählungen (Klimawandel) werden unkritisch zur Leiterzählung. Fortschrittspessimismus ist die Folge. - Gründer wandern ins Ausland ab. Innovation findet woanders statt. Im Ergebnis ist in D kein neues Unternehmen von Weltrang in den letzten 40 Jahren entstanden. - Die Relativierung bzw. Geringschätzung der klassischen Familie als erstrebenswertes Lebensmodell senkt die Geburtenrate. Die Gesellschaft überaltert. - Laxe Geldpolitik führt zu Assetpreisinflation. Das Kapitalbildungsmodell der Mittelschicht - Vermögensbildung aus Erwerbseinkommen - wird verunmöglicht. Die Akzeptanz des Kapitalismus leidet. ... Wenn wir wieder in die Erfolgsspur finden wollen, müssen wir gegensteuern. In jedem dieser Punkte.

@VincentGeloso i wonder if he would‘ve made the same post had it been about sociology or psychology, two famously unideological and rigorous disciplines

The paradox of this tweet is that the paper in question is published by an economics journal by non-conservative economists who are amazing researchers (Suresh is one of my favorite economists despite massive ideological differences between us). The zinger fails on so many levels here…

@Research_FRI @threadreaderapp unroll

We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. However, when asked to consider what would happen in a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050: • Annualized GDP growth of 3.5% (compared to 2.4% in 2025) • A labor force participation rate of 55% (roughly 10 million fewer jobs) • 80% of wealth held by the top 10% (highest since 1939) 🧵 Here's what we found:

i deplore the fact that humbleness has conquered the midwit slot. from here on now, the might of the contrarian triad shall force me to be cocky.

@PAHoyeck @JYuter i was going to post this too. 100% recommended.

@JYuter Never heard of it, thanks! Would you say it's philosophically interesting? And if so, could you give me a sense of its philosophical relevance in your eyes?

Updating my science fiction film to-watch list. What are some philosophically poignant science fiction films I need to see? I'd especially appreciate neglected films and foreign films I'm probably not familiar with.

@yishan @interro_9 @TheZvi not to nitpick but chatgpt allows free users a limited daily amount of tokens for their flagship models

One subtle difference is that the "freemium" model as implemented by AI doesn't really align with how freemium models work for consumer/SaaS products. With typical freemium products, you actually give the most useful features free, so that people experience the full ROI. The paid element comes into play as people realize it's great, and want to pay for advanced features - but the ROI on those is actually incremental, often power user features. With AI, the free version is LESS useful than the paid version. So the mass audience experiences the least useful version of the product (which objectively right now generates slop), while the user is asked to pay a steep fee to access something approaching real utility. Only a relatively small part of the population (the tech elite and adjacent) realize the *fundamental* utility of AI from first principles and will subscribe... but no one actually experiences the utility until they pay. I think liberal-polarized anti-AI sentiment is actually a mild and weak cultural force, but the freemium-AI business model is so dysfunctional that it has kept the majority of the US population from ever experiencing why AI is really good and useful (and instead experiencing mostly just slop, ruination of their online social spaces, and job less). Contrast this to AI in China, which is broadly accepted and enthusiastically pursued in products by the entire population (see: aunties lining up to install OpenClaw). Chinese companies have open-sourced AI models and put the best possible AI they can into real-life products to enhance value delivery. This means the population gets to directly experience the value brought by the latest AI releases, rather than in the US, where the population experiences mediocre AI.

There's a lot of explanations for why left wing people are often so radically dismissive of AI, but perhaps we are largely overthinking 'did something cancel-worthy one time so they canceled it and nothing else matters.'

@robertlasagna1 lesswrong.com/posts/9kcTNWop…

The average person's worldview and epistemology is akin to hearing a knock knock joke, and taking thinking that the answer to every knock knock joke is "interrupting cow, moo". They have a childhood assumption about the world, and the first time it is proven wrong, they adopt whatever caused their cognitive dissonance as their Adult assumptions, and think that everyone who believes the latter are adults and anyone who believes anything else, is childish. They don't learn the meta rule, the joke structure, the concept of premise - input - new conclusion. They just think the answer to every-MOO

@hermittoday youtu.be/EnY3seBgIMo?is…

@hermittoday early kas:st (before thefancy music videos): youtu.be/xhtjhs32kyM?is…

lots of dark techno out there. some of it nihilistic even. but who’s making the sacred ritualistic variety? light techno? holy techno?

@RichardHanania @tszzl surely a coincidence that economics is also the one discipline where avid Science™ fans suddenly lose their enthusiasm for empirical results

Tyler Cowen in his new book on why economists write about topics outside their area of expertise: “The dirty little secret is that what distinguishes economics as a field, right now, is a mix of higher standards, harder work, better math, and higher IQs.” This is clearly true.

@Simon__Grimm yeah zwingli/calvinist residue kept public choice from creeping up too fast. it was nice while it lasted. admin.ch/gov/en/start/d…

Swiss direct democracy is one of the most white-pilling institutions out there. Giving voters frequent direct votes makes spending more efficient, aligns parliaments with voters, and empowers the median (often most reasonable) voter.

@eigenrobot and furthermore, Fuck A War remains a highlight of modern foreign policy analysis

Damn It Feels Good to Be a Gangsta was at least 70% good life advice

@nikitabier make block/mute as frictionless as possible, i.e. long press on username. the more ppl block/mute, the better the experience for everybody (except the foamy-mouth people).

Every time we do a user survey. What would make X better for you? Normal Person: > Maybe a podcast feature? Guy who reposted 370 videos from TikTok using Scheduled Posts, has never opened the app, and has a bot writing replies: > *Foaming from mouth* > Gib…more…money….

@NoahCarl90 @AporiaMagazine @EPoe187 oh wow 😅

@jsperera1 @AporiaMagazine @EPoe187 Midjourney

"A few times in my life, I have felt something like righteous anger at having been lied to. The first was Santa Claus, the second was religion, and the third was The Bell Curve." aporiamagazine.com/p/but-why-woul…

@AlecStapp @wilhelmscreamin „there are too may podcasts“ and „there are only 6 good podcasts“ are both easily falsifiable statements, not sure why ppl write things like that

@wilhelmscreamin think it's like 6: - dwarkesh pod - statecraft by santi - conversations with tyler - cheeky pint with john collison - interesting times with ross douthat - 80k

i don't understand why people think there are too many podcasts. there are like 3-4 good podcasts in the world. i would love there to be more good podcasts

@marginletter surely you mean „of the last 37 years“?

The Iranian terror regime is nearing its end. It will be the most consequential geopolitical event of the last 50 years. It seems almost unbelievable because the terrorist regime held an entire region and more than 90 million people hostage. They funded terrorism worldwide and provided ample funding for propaganda in the West. But now it is collapsing, and this is where the propaganda turns desperate. That’s why you see more and more crazy fake AI slop and desperate posts claiming “Iran is winning.” Their military infrastructure is toast, and their economy is on the brink of collapse. Their only card is terrorist piracy in the Strait of Hormuz, but that will soon end. Truly amazing times.

@Noahpinion texas and vermont are not exactly the same broth either, so let’s say as long as it‘s ice cream, combining different flavors is fine

With salad-bowl multiculturalism, you'll always be just a tomato or a crouton. With melting-pot multiculturalism, you become the whole broth.

@Metamagician my theory of the sudden decline in decoupling capabilities: it‘s basically an overweighting of the (sometimes useful) ad hominem fallacy/heuristic emboldened by the overwhelming cacophony of the modern info landscape

The concepts of "high decoupling" and "low decoupling" have always seemed a bit gimmicky to me, but I've come to think that they (and more formal equivalents used in the behavioral sciences) are useful. One of the big problems with contemporary public discussion is that most of it comes from people who are incapable of setting aside their broader emotional responses and looking at specific issues on their merits. For example, if you're a "low decoupler" and someone is generally a political opponent, you have to prove that s/he is wrong on every single thing every single time. Conversely, if you feel sympathy for some group, no member of the group can ever be in the wrong in any set of circumstances that ever arises, and on each occasion has to be defended to the death. No moral intuition that you have can ever be admitted to being probably somewhat irrational in its origin in your thinking (so you can never get any distance from your own intuitions). If anyone disagrees with you about any instances of any of the above, you assume that they are somehow your moral and political enemy across the board (and they should probably be destroyed, or at least discredited in some way). Frankly, dealing with people like this - the "low decouplers" - is frustrating and exhausting (much more than dealing with people who are my political or philosophical opponents but are not like this). It's impossible making any intellectual progress in discussion with them. But I've come to understand over the years that they are in the majority and I'm in a fairly small minority.