M
3.5K posts
@SethAbrams1 @maps_spams the absentee file will get updated daily but after election night it won't be added to the count until provisionals are counted, depends on each locality
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In VA
in 2024, eday votes were 11.6% right of the overall result and 13.1% right of the in-person early vote
In 2025, eday was 7.7% right of the overall result and 7% right of the in-person early vote
Wouldn’t be surprised if that gap narrowed a bit further this year
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@ElliscbIV ED cannot be blood red because early voting centers were poor in some blue areas.
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Here’s my prediction for tommorow’s redistricting amendment in VA:
It’ll probably do slightly better than Jones did in ‘25, while falling short of matching Biden’s ‘20 margin. EV is looking good for Dems, but I expect ED to be blood-red.
🟢 Yes: 53.7% (+7.4)
🟣 No: 46.3%
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Which of course makes Collins' ability to perform well w/them so rare & the key to her survival. As I wrote, Gideon in '20 ran 15 points behind Biden w/women 45+, an unheard of falloff in modern politics. That's who reelected Collins & who may be a tough crowd for Platner.
Ben@lambertfromnewz
@RonBrownstein Yes, if there's one group Democrats have been neglecting and losing, it's older educated women 🙄
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Strong turnout continues this week in Northern Virginia, as region has been closing the turnout gap with the state's redder areas this week.
Since my last update 2 days ago, 116K new voters overall; biggest jumps in turnout (again) in the 8th, 10th, and 11th districts.
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@RiseAscendant @realfeel1degree @DailySoyjaks That particular referendum won't be allowed by red states because it's going to win in about 48 out 50 States.
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@realfeel1degree @DailySoyjaks Defederalizing abortion and actually allowing people to vote on the issue at the state level is actual freedom.
Funnily enough, forcing the entire country to adopt Democrat policies isn't freedom.
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@davidslosttt He will definitely have an Oakland red swing like Anililia Mejia from the Jewish voters.
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my opinion on Michigan’s senate race is this:
- AES almost certainly wins the election and no data suggests he loses (other than polls conducted when he had no name ID)
- But McMorrow is a progressive and she’s also the best candidate in the race
Dj@DjsokeSpeaking
I do think the algorithm feeds into it and gives imbalanced exposure (def true in our primary) but the hyperbolism is insane lmao That AES would *guarantee* a loss in a year as blue as this is silly. Calling MM a centrist or casting her as a secret Sinema is silly!
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@maps_spams Sure
Manhattan is the NYC Mayoral Primary bc its just all super Blue for 2024 Prez.
Staten Island is 2024 Prez Shading.
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Was bored, so did this with Queens and Brooklyn. Both under 2024 Prez Shading
daniel 🇺🇸🇩🇴🇵🇷🇺🇦@bronxneoliberal
What if The Bronx had it's own legislature? Here is a map of 25 seats, with the intention of fairness.
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@ChazNuttycombe So you are saying their early voting is not good and they still win by Yes + 10? Please give me more clarification.
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So this didn't happen, not a great sign for the Yes campaign, but they are still ultimately favored. I'd ballpark this as a 3-in-4 chance they win.
The odds of No winning are getting two coins and having them both land on the same side.
Chaz Nuttycombe@ChazNuttycombe
If the EV is getting slightly bluer by the end here, maybe like 1-3 pts or something then it means the poll is likely going to prove accurate. If it ain't, DEMs firewall is easy to penetrate so long as No gets a slightly stronger than expected EDay turnout in their exurbs
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@ok_post_guy @DrewSav There's literally nothing common in the ideology of Platner and Fetterman.
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Here's a more secure SC-1
David@davidslosttt
Jim Clyburn is so easy to draw out that it's not even funny
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@maps_spams I cropped em so no one gets em for free lololol
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🚨Rhode Island has increased its minimum wage to $17 an hour.
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@BasedIllinoisan These people are delusional. First of all she'll never win the primary.
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*Loses every state that didn’t vote for Harris by 5+ points*
Professional Zoomer 🌹@Zoomer_Doomer_
If AOC doesn’t run for president in 2028, my choice is Rashida Tlaib.
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Almost 100K Virginia voters voted early-in-person yesterday, the final day of IPEV. 2.5K mail votes were processed, meaning 101.8K total votes were added.
Just under 1.36 million votes have been cast so far.
The D share of our estimated EV Split ticked up 0.1 points to 59.1%.
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@StateNavigate Are all mail votes returned or is there still more to come?
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~1.36 Million is 94.5% of 2025. The just under 1.08 million IPEVs are 95.1% of the same-day 2025 total; the 282K mail votes are at 92.6%.
Our interactive map has been updated here:
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/v…
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@MarionStefan When about the VRA redistricting in Illinois where they make shapes to make a black VRA district. Will that be allowed?
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