Matt, is this true?
128 posts


@garrytan it’s easier to enter flow state with 0.618 miller lites i’ve found
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@johnloeber Good post but I don’t think this is Jevon’s paradox. You have described the setup for the paradox (the cost of producing software is going down) but not the contradiction (no evidence that the demand for software is increasing).
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Jevons Paradox
At the start of this year I thought I was going to try to read two books a month. I am now reading zero books for the rest of the year. Why?
AI is getting so much better that I have so much more leverage on my own time that it is becoming way too expensive to spend time on reading. Projects that previously would have taken me 1,000 hours I can now do in 20. Everything that I've ever dreamed of creating, writing, etc., that was previously out of reach, is suddenly within reach: just another 10 hours here, another 10 hours there, having and being able to use all of this AI leverage when other people aren't, feels like a huge advantage.
That feels like the hottest possible iron that must be struck immediately.
I've always been a standard-issue Silicon Valley nerd who's sometimes going to stay in and write software instead of going out, but now I'm feeling this stronger than ever before. The opportunity cost on my time has risen wildly and, funnily enough, this totally locks in my behavior. Instead of relaxing more, doing the same amount of work, and having more free time, I am busier than ever before. Jevons Paradox is very, very real.
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@arvidkahl how big do you think a context window is? How do you think the context window works?
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@pvncher if you are CEO of a company that is losing money, how do you convince investors you are worth $380B?
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It’s so hard to contrast Boris’ take with Dario’s claim that:
“software engineering is fully automated by 2027. You might have the 0.01% engineer left over, but that's it, the job is finished.”
Why does Dario keep making such insane claims?
Boris Cherny@bcherny
@big_duca Someone has to prompt the Claudes, talk to customers, coordinate with other teams, decide what to build next. Engineering is changing and great engineers are more important than ever.
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@_chenglou what evidence do you have that LLMs can reason outside of language? Bitter lesson strikes again
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@DavidOndrej1 this is already known to practitioners (both that all models are overfit on these problems and that the frontier models are still clearly ahead) but it’s almost deceitful to not mention the relative cost: Minimax 2.5 is not on par with Opus but it is ~15x cheaper
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@kimmonismus What’s “big”? The idea that an agent uses multiple tool calls? That search should be fast?
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This is big. To quote their CEO
„Why the AI ecosystem needs this:
AI Agents now use multiple tool calls within their tasks. When the end-to-end task needs to be fast (like seconds), then any underlying web search tool calls need to be near instant.“
Exa@ExaAILabs
Introducing Exa Instant: the first sub-200ms search engine. Faster than Google, it's custom built to power realtime AI products like chat and voice.
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@OfirPress Difference is two-fold: 1) if you don’t trust the car, you fear a violent death vs. fearing sloppy code and 2) programming is verifiable before production in a way that driving a model 3 on the interstate is not
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