Dan

To reiterate - because I have a feeling it may come up down the road - it's not bitcoiners' fault that governments over-spent and killed their currencies.

@zackvoell You do in my house

"I am feeling happy and optimistic about the future" you don't hear that anymore

Yes and no. Anyone who expected 80% 10yr CAGR to continue indefinitely has been disappointed. But that's always been a ridiculous expectation. 25% CAGR for a decade is incredible! Bottom line for me is that I expect BTC to narrow the mcap gap with gold over time, and benefit from money printing alongside gold. Again, over time. Short term...even 5yrs (which I'd say is medium term), can be idiosyncratic. And aside from the investment performance, BTC in self custody gives the holder a type of insurance and flexibility that's literally impossible to get from any tradfi asset.

@robustus My memory sucks I thought the 20k top was 2016. So 8.5 years. Ok but you get my point there really hasn’t been significant growth over that time compared to what we all would have expected

Bitcoin: $922,875,000

@ventotene12 $10k put into BTC 10yrs ago would be worth $1,699,000 today.

@robustus These numbers just don’t work man. 10k 10 years ago is 35000. I’m sad but bitcoin just isn’t moving anymore

"Saudi Arabia has already recovered more than half of its pre-war export capacity of ~7 million barrels per day Furthermore, at least 32 large oil tankers are waiting near Yanbu to load, with more still heading to the port"

Bitcoin full price history here: #full_price_history" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">casebitcoin.com/charts#full_pr…

@JonErlichman x.com/i/status/20347…

Value of $10,000 invested 15 years ago: Nvidia: $4,043,000 Tesla: $2,490,000 Netflix: $310,900 Eli Lilly: $265,300 Amazon: $256,300 Alphabet: $216,800 Apple: $211,200 Mastercard: $203,200 Visa: $167,600 Microsoft: $157,000 Costco: $138,700 Home Depot: $90,800 Starbucks: $52,900

@nic_carter +1

it's completely possible to be a right winger and not spend an ounce of mental energy on charlie kirk conspiracies, inter podcaster turf wars, Israel/the Jews/Bibi or anything to do with nick fuentes or candace owens. i do it every day, it's great, i highly recommend it

The secret to the success of the best btc/crypto "traders" on here is that most of them have also just held a "forever bag" of btc, and maybe a couple other coins, for a few cycles. The trading is a sideshow.

Wow, so not 28yo "macro" trader guys??

@RokoMijic @SydSteyerhart #neverforget

@robustus @SydSteyerhart > 2021 he was convinced Cardano would dominate crypto :) fuck I'd forgotten about that 🫣

Miller's take that "Superintelligence" won't cure cancer and death is going to age really badly. Firstly, it's wrong by definition. "Superintelligence" means an AI that that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in all domains. That is literally the definition of "Superintelligence". So it must greatly exceed humans at curing cancer specifically. Presumably Miller thinks that humans are capable of curing cancer in principle (otherwise, why do we devote human researchers to this task?), therefore by definition any "Superintelligence" must be able to cure cancer. Secondly, Miller starts bounding the capabilities of "Superintelligence" by comparing it to contemporary LLM-based systems. There are two ways this could go wrong: - either LLM-based-systems are not capable of curing cancer, in which case they will never achieve "Superintelligence". Or, sufficient improvements may yield LLM-based systems that do actually cure cancer in which case they might make it to "Superintelligence" (or might not, if they are bad at some other task). I think people like Geoffrey Miller should just stop talking about "Superintelligence" if they are going to abuse the term like this. But set aside the definitional games: maybe AI systems that we can actually build will be bad at biomedical science? This is certainly the case today. Modern LLM-based systems are good at coding and at commonsense and generic research tasks, but not that good at anything else. LLMs work well when they get fast feedback. But, so do humans. Anyone sufficiently intelligent can get good at math and coding. Getting good at biology requires a lot of equipment. We haven't really connected modern AIs to automated labs yet. When we do, I do expect significant progress just as we saw progress when we connected AI to the internet. In a way, LLMs are just the result of connecting the preexisting AI stuff to large scale data. We already had neural language models in 2015. I used to work on language models, just before LLMs took off. Small language models are not impressive or that useful. So I have seen a full cycle of this playing out over a decade. x.com/gmiller/status…

He also blocked me, after years of engaging constructively about various topics, cuz I (politely) noted his constant ASI ~"we're all gonna die" doomerism just makes people roll their eyes & ignore him. Anyway, it's also worth remembering that in 2021 he was convinced Cardano would dominate crypto :)

@SydSteyerhart yeah I am blocked too

@moogoobrew That's what I thought. Which implies you missed the point, are trying to infer some sort of prediction from me that I'm not making, and are willing to waste my time with irrelevant questions. Blocked.

@robustus It’s a rhetorical question.

Gold and silver getting crushed this morning in response to geopolitical/war stuff. More than BTC btw. So I don't want to hear any goldbugs ever take any in-the-moment (misplaced) victory laps about how BTC reacts to geopolitics again. Long term is always what matters, for both

@moogoobrew You can't look these up yourself?

@robustus How far is gold from ATH? How far is bitcoin?

Remember, there are a lot of young "macro" "trader" guys talking very confidently about things today. Don't forget how wrong they were in 2023, calling for s&p <3600 and BTC <$14k cuz the yield curve was inverted or whatever lol

@TXMCtrades Anyway, I'm just gonna finally block you now. You're the poster-child for short term minded young macro trader guy who gets a lot wrong, deletes tweets, thinks macro is everything, and underperforms the ppl you argue with.

@TXMCtrades You still waiting for lower than s&p3600 and deleting old tweets or nah?

Gold is STILL significantly closer to its highs than Bitcoin and was still making new all-time highs in 2026, deep into BTC's bear. I honestly wish I could perma-mute any posts about relative strength shit forever because the posts NEVER acknowledge context and thus are stupid.

@DPGSpurs @TXMCtrades Lol that guy was turbo bearish at s&p3600, and deleted a bunch of tweets from a couple years ago. Not to mention he said BTC's *2011* bear market was related to macro factors like PMI (looool). The poster-child for young trader guy who thinks macro & short term is everything.

@TXMCtrades Gold and sliver down more than Bitcoin - so we need to make sure no one says gold is for uncertain times either.

Nope

It’s undeniable that Israel has done some terrible things. They have been surrounded by sworn enemies that deny their right to exist and against whom they have been in a war for their survival for decades. Fighting such a war, one cannot expect any country to keep its hands completely clean - particularly with enemies that are knee-deep in pigshit. But any criticism of Israel must consider proportionality. There is no criticism of Israel that cannot be made 100fold more emphatically against its enemies - except perhaps, their competency in execution (pun intended). And it must also consider glass houses. When America was attacked at Pearl Harbor, we responded by detonating two nuclear weapons on civilian targets. Nothing Israel has ever done has risen to this level of retaliatory excess. To be clear: this is not a criticism of Truman or of America. I see little value in relitigating decisions that were made 80 years ago with only an academic understanding of the information viscerally known to those making the decision, without the uncertainty and chaos of war, and with the benefit of hindsight. This is simply a reminder that acts taken in a time of war out of self-preservation cannot be judged in isolation, and cannot be condemned without considering what else one must, to avoid rampant hypocrisy, condemn with the same or greater forcefulness. And I have yet to see a single critic of Israel that grapples honestly with the depravity of the forces allied against it, and considers what expectations the critic himself would place on a government tasked with ensuring his own survival against an existential threat. It’s always easier to say you’d be more judicious in your use of force when the gun is pointed at someone else’s head.

@fejau_inc 5D chess

Art of the deal