Peter Waring

After almost three years, I’m thrilled to announce the release of the Audible podcast, Deepest Dive: The Search for #MH370. Thanks to everyone at @WhistledownProd and @Audible_AU. And the incomparable Jana Wendt, my co-host. audible.com.au/pd/Deepest-Div…

@LabratSR Thanks again to Kevin and co for the updates. Personally, I think it's remarkable how proactive OI has been,and how much they've achieved

#MH370 The search is not over. However, it “may” be delayed until the spring down there. Also, they want a bigger boat.

@AustinJamesCoo1 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill Olivier Ferrante, the SG of BEA and the lead investigator for AF447 said: "the reverse drift analysis that was done for MH370 was from too far away, and I would say that all is shows is that it's in the right ocean... to pinpoint the exact location. I wouldn't trust those results

@pwar82 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill Hey Peter, based on all the evidence we have now what are the chances ocean infinity finds it?

MH370: Progress!? OMG, ByronB defected from the die-hard 38-40s crowd in Oz. Can I buy another 300-500 hundred miles concession? I have respect for Byron for telling the apparent truth about MH370, but we also need honest reading of evidence. youtube.com/watch?v=kAPhwE…

@AustinJamesCoo1 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill If OI are willing to look elsewhere, beyond 15k (which I think is possible), then they may find it...I hope so. There was once a near consensus on a rapid descent at the 6th arc - that is no longer the case - and I feel eventually the same will happen with the drift analysis

@AustinJamesCoo1 @Ventus_45 @HDTBill Big question. I have long advocated searching further south and wider of the arc. I have minimal faith in drift analysis, especially with such inadequate data. I have also long believed in a controlled ditch and, based on proposed search area, the thinking on this has changed

@HDTBill I think that is a very likely possibility. In fact, it's Simon Hardy's scenario. The question becomes, do you think it more or less likely that the perpetrator would have flown the aircraft as far as possible, in which case we're looking at -38

My thinking, by the way, is that the super-stealth part of this flight was probably only after Arc7, still with fuel, whereas Arc7 is when SATCOM was depowered (twice maybe due to a little mistake). I do not think I have to worry about pilot fear of JORN (I am hoping).

MH370: The Bourne (JORN) Ultimatum Australia has a OTH defense radar system running 24/7 and can see a pin drop. Except truth is JORN is often not up and cannot find wayward aircraft anyways. The $64000 question : how would a rogue pilot treat JORN? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_…

@HDTBill @Ventus_45 I've asked enough savvy pilots to know they don't. And there was less online information about it pre disappearance. We didn't even know what it was capable of at the ATSB (we asked and got a non-response)

@pwar82 @Ventus_45 JORN cannot find unknown aircraft, except that everybody feels certain that nobody knows that. If I go with savvy pilot assumption, he knew it.

@HDTBill @Ventus_45 Yes - which means a controlled ditch. I worry that such a path is inside the known range of the JORN (over the horizon radar). Any pilot worth his salt and who planned this adequately would have know the radar range arcs. But as I said, the datum we have is the 7th arc...

@pwar82 @Ventus_45 I agree Arc7 data tells us descent was prob manual maneuver. Home sim path is prob the actual path flown after Arc5. 2-step process, drop 180 south then intercept sim path. BTO/BFO says this if Straight-to-Arc7 mandate can be kindly removed. Still fuel at Arc7.

@Ventus_45 @HDTBill An excellent question...all of it. We factored in the full width before adding the simulator loss of control work...Here's a graphic:

@pwar82 @HDTBill Thank you for that Peter. Next question. What 7th arc was the datum, sea surface, or what altitude.

@Ventus_45 @HDTBill I think the pilot remained at the controls until the end. I've thought that for a long time (there were a few ATSB dissenters). BUT search 101 requires that you start at a datum and move outwards. All we had was the 7th arc and so I think we did the best with what little we had

@pwar82 @HDTBill Peter, what do you really think ? (a) ghost flight post the FMT is true, or (b) ghost flight post the FMT is false - piloted to the end.

@LabratSR @AustinJamesCoo1 @BigOceanData I guess it depends on whether they're worried about the weather window. Which explains why they've started in the southern part of the search area - get it done first. Based on the experience of 2014-18 the northern part (above -35) should be okay, at least for another swing...

@AustinJamesCoo1 @BigOceanData Just my opinion but I think we can rule out Cape Town now.

#MH370 Armada 78 06 (Lime) continues to work filling the area from the 2018 search (Red) out to 55NM. I turned on the CSIRO hotspots from 2018 in the second image. Wave Heights are on in the last image. #vesseltracking by @BigOceanData

@HDTBill There's so much to unpack. I was with the ATSB search team in 2014-2015 and what was believed (although questioned by myself and a few others) was that MH370 was taken deliberately but that the pilot ended his own life between the top of Sumatra and the end of flight. Thanks Bill

@pwar82 Hi Peter thank you for the comments. Lots to unpack there. Debris drift is prob questionable from 36s or greater. Sure Abbott's 2019 tell-all says everyone privately knew deliberate but public was told ghost flight. Av geeks upset with open disclosure of likely truth?

@RadiantPhysics @Take7_Reserved @bytesaber_ @khunpleb @TheRagingElk @LattimerKa22100 @StangV2_0 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Yeah that's right. Quite an incredible piece of work, really

@pwar82 @Take7_Reserved @bytesaber_ @khunpleb @TheRagingElk @LattimerKa22100 @StangV2_0 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Metron also first presented the possibility that both ULBs failed, which led to them scanning an area that was previously considered to be eliminated.

#MH370 Armada 78 06 (Lime) continues to work its way northeast up the 7th arc. The outer bounds appear to be around 50 NM from the arc. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if they keep going. Wave heights are on in the last image #vesseltracking by @BigOceanData

@HDTBill All depends on the drift analysis. Byron believed in 38 degrees because it fits best with how a B777 would be flown. In other words, the 188T course matches the arcs. But he's wrong - no one in the Aust gov ever thought it was anything other than a deliberate act by the captain

The other thing Byron was betting his house in Oz on the accuracy his older 38 South pin, now I can't move to Australia. 😔

@Take7_Reserved @RadiantPhysics @bytesaber_ @khunpleb @TheRagingElk @LattimerKa22100 @StangV2_0 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Importantly, the BEA also engaged a US based company, Metron, to undertake a Bayesian analysis which de-weighted the drift analysis prior. They found the debris field quickly after that tinyurl.com/4f44vfpf

@RadiantPhysics @bytesaber_ @khunpleb @TheRagingElk @LattimerKa22100 @StangV2_0 @LabratSR @BigOceanData were they ever able to recover the FDR and VCR? if yes, did they contain any useful data? it seems to me the VCR was recovered cause of the failed pitot-tube and confusion over true airspeed on the flight deck

@LabratSR @TheRagingElk @BigOceanData Thanks Kevin for all you're doing! It's great work

@TheRagingElk @BigOceanData I can add that stuff to the plots. It may be a few days, I’ve got a lot on my plate.

@Edward_767 @LabratSR @BigOceanData Big question! It's worth remembering that in 2018 the initial area was 25k and they ended up doing over 100. So, I think there's a good chance OI expand elsewhere if needed. The fact that they're currently doing what appears to be prelim work without a contract is a positive sign

@LabratSR @BigOceanData I truly hope that my hunch-based location much farther north is wrong and MH370 is found in the new search. Problem is, should the renewed search turn up empty would there be any chance of abandoning the current search area for a different location? Time will tell

#MH370 Armada 78 06 continues to work north as it expands the searched area to 45 nautical miles. We are getting close to decision time on whether to head for Cape Town. Wave Heights are on in the last image. #vesseltracking by @BigOceanData

@MystOddities @elizanow1 @AustinJamesCoo1 @370Location A return to first principles is needed. Starting with the Bayesian model and the inflated claims of certainty. Those of us that have been involved since 2014 have seen this play out and the simple truth is that there is insufficient data. I hope they succeed but I have doubts

@elizanow1 @AustinJamesCoo1 @370Location If MH370 isn't found then either it was missed or there is an error in the calculations defining the search area. Maybe the search area just wasn't large enough or there is some factor that isn't accounted for. I hope they find it this time. It needs to be found.

#MH370 breakthrough: The single yellow pixel that could be the missing plane Scientist believes he's found wreckage of MH370. Plane missing for 11 years. By Matthew Dooley, Rebecca Robinson 10:53, Mon, Mar 17, 2025 | UPDATED: 11:35, Mon, Mar 17, 2025 express.co.uk/news/world/202…

@RadiantPhysics @benjohn65 @YouTube Precisely my thought, Victor. Let's see the peer reviewed paper!

@benjohn65 @YouTube Simon Maskell (Liverpool) has been studying WSPR tracking for many months. To my knowledge, he still believes it's possible, although I've yet to read a paper from him to this effect. We exchanged many emails, but he just ignores my analytical and experimental evidence. MH370

Demonstration of WSPR technology #MH370 AIRCRAFT SCATTER RECEPTION ELAD S2 / SDR# /AIRSCOUT youtu.be/1gc0vVk3XBg?si… via @YouTube

@MystOddities This brings back some memories - there was about 8 hours between the high AUV pass and the low pass - we thought we'd found it and were getting press releases ready etc! But shows you how accurate side scan sonar can be - some of those pieces of coal are no bigger than a fist!

A shipwreck found during the first search for MH370. Wood pieces are gone leaving only metal. The scattered nature indicates that the ship was sunk due to an explosion (likely involving the cargo of coal). The large box is an iron water tank. #MH370 #Shipwreck

@thebigtwoseven @RadiantPhysics It is a new(ish) phenomenon - certainly when the search begun there were very few vessels in the area (all of which were contacted). It is, strangely, the result of the search, and the public release of the bathymetric data. Fishing vessels like to fish on a known bottom...

@pwar82 @RadiantPhysics Is all this fishing activity new to this area? If it’s so busy out there now ,and we are so close to the anniversary of the crash , how did the original debris field go unnoticed by all the fishing vessels likely in the area at that time.

Armada 7806 appears to be searching outside of what was previous searched and also outside of the proposed search area, which they presumedly believe is the highest probability for success. Possibly related to contractual issues. MH370