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#Ukraine #warcrimes My Guardian piece explaining why indicting Putin for war crimes will be simpler than other high-profile cases.
theguardian.com/law/2022/apr/1…
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Chris Stephen
55.6K posts
Chris Stephen
@reportingLibya
Author: The Future of War Crimes Justice (2024) Judgement Day: The Trial of Slobodan Milosevic (2006) War correspondent The Guardian + other media
เข้าร่วม Ocak 2010
1K กำลังติดตาม25.1K ผู้ติดตาม
@borzou Borzou, it is not bad faith commentary.
Or trolling.
You have posted a claim that many in Taiwan would like to join mainland China.
It was your post. So I am asking for more information.
Do you have polling numbers for how many in Taiwan wish this?
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@reportingLibya i asked you nicely to stop trolling with bad-faith commentary
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There’s already a significant constituency inside Taiwan that favors reunification. For the US, this would be a catastrophic— if still very unlikely—outcome of the Iran war.
Al Jazeera Breaking News@AJENews
UPDATE: China says peaceful reunification will solve Taiwan's energy crisis amid Iran war 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/fs4nzb?update=…
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@MichaelAArouet Japan has had stratospheric debt for years and made it work.
Whether other parts of the world can do it...tricky.
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The debt situation in Europe and the US is really unsustainable, they said…
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@shashj Mines are tricky for Iran. It would mean shutting off China and India-bound tankers as well.
Arranging for one mine-free channel close to the Strait might be their solution, but mines drift.
Shore based anti-shipping missiles are the threat the US worries most about.
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I think a key question right now is how easily Iran can lay mines, given the attrition to its mine layers & other boats, and some damage to mine stocks, along with the heavy & growing surveillance on the area. Mine laying could also complicate Iranian war termination.
ProfTalmadge@ProfTalmadge
Former CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel: "I think the worst case now would be if we’ve found positive evidence of the Strait being mined… That would really extend out the time [for opening the Strait]. We probably have to assume that there are mines in there right now. But a serious mining effort by Iran could really complicate and slow things down." twz.com/news-features/…
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@MarioNawfal The problem with such systems is they are point defence. They have to be positioned close to the one place to defend. You would need thousands and thousands to defend a city.
Best real defence is intercepting the ballistic missile before it deploys its cluster munitions.
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Which air defense can actually stop cluster munitions?
Short answer: none, once they do what they’re designed to do.
Interception was tested with GMLRS M30 rockets, fast, heavy, and easy enough to track at first.
But right before impact, they split mid-air and scatter dozens of submunitions, turning one target into a multitude of chaos.
Why this matters: interception isn’t the problem; timing is. Miss them early, and you’re suddenly dealing with a swarm instead of a single threat.
Systems like C-RAM or 35mm guns can react… but by then, it’s already too late.
Source: HellfiereYT
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@WW3finalboss Er...nobody was ready to 'drop everything'. The small number of troops were mostly sent on commercial flights.
Nobody doubted Trump was serious. But nobody wanted to respond, most EU states sent no troops at all.
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🇪🇺🚨 GREENLAND FLASHPOINT: EUROPE PREPARES FOR THE UNTHINKABLE
Europe was reportedly preparing for full-scale conflict with the United States over a potential move on Greenland.
France signaled readiness to deploy everything needed to block a takeover, while Denmark prepared blood supplies and demolition plans for key runways.
This was code red.
When allies start gaming war scenarios against each other, the fracture is already real.
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@Jesii_ca_M Find out the first day when Microsoft shares are available to the public. And save up ready for it.
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@IlvesToomas The EU economies are many times the size of Russia. EU politicians talk of the importance of defending Ukraine. So shouldering the spending burden should be a positive, not a negative for them.
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The US has sent nothing to Ukraine since January 2025.
Since then anything Ukraine receives that is American is bought by the EU and Trump brags about how the US is making money from it.
WarTranslated@wartranslated
US Secretary of Defense Hegseth: Munitions being called for shipment to Ukraine would be better used "in our own interests."
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@fharris2011 Confirmed.
These days, Yes Minister should be classified as a documentary, not satire.
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@reportingLibya Truth
The Treasury rules when the Prime Minister doesn't
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History would like you to remember that very bad things happen to undefended countries
The UK's defences are now gossamer thin, and the Treasury says that's just fine
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@jackprandelli I mean, exactly. Global oil price is the global oil price.
As mentioned, the US could take legal measures to ring fence its own oil. But these raise their own complications.
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@reportingLibya yes it does since WTI is more liquid but the real traded barrels are not the same of the oman or dubai futures(different API)
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This map tells you exactly who's winning and losing the energy war
The vulnerable:
🇩🇪 Germany
🇮🇹 Italy
🇯🇵 Japan
🇰🇷 South Korea
All dependent and exposed.
The insulated:
🇺🇸 US (domestic Oil)
🇷🇺 Russia (Natural Gas)
🇨🇳 China (Coal, still very reliant on imports of fossil fuels)
🇫🇷 France (Nuclear)
Notice something?
Every country screaming loudest about the energy crisis runs primarily on imported oil.
Every country staying quiet has domestic supply.
The vulnerable countries on this map are now in a race against time.
Coal is dirty.
Nuclear takes decades to build.
Renewables can't replace baseload overnight.
There are no quick fixes on this map.
Energy security is built in the decades before one.
📩 I break down what this means for markets every week in my newsletter
Link in bio
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@MonicaLMarks The Economist backed the 2003 Iraq invasion. And no WMD in that case. Trump uses same reasoning as Bush used back then. What changed ?
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Outstanding cover from The Economist. It’s one of the best news outlets covering this disastrous war.
Nick Bryant@NickBryantNY
Quite the lede from The Economist: and quite the cover. “Although President Donald Trump says he has “destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability”, the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy.” And now quite the cover: @glcarlstrom
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@jackprandelli You're saying if global oil prices go up, American oil prices don't go up?
Probably you need more research on that one.
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@reportingLibya please adjust your view x.com/jackprandelli/…
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli
🛢️ A lot of noise on oil prices right now 5 benchmarks, 5 stories but 1 chokepoint. Brent The world's default price. When the news says "$108 oil," this is what they mean. WTI The US benchmark. Lowest on the chart. American crude never touches Hormuz. Murban Abu Dhabi crude, out of Fujairah. Technically bypasses the Strait but drone strikes on the port have sent insurance costs soaring. Oman The Asian heavy crude benchmark. Chinese, Japanese & Korean refiners are built specifically for this grade. Highest on the chart. Buyers are fighting over a shrinking pool. Dubai Prices most long-term Gulf→Asia contracts. Tells you exactly how hard Asian markets are being squeezed. In late February these 5 lines were within $6 of each other. The WTI–Oman spread is now over $50. Since Feb 28, Hormuz has effectively closed. Daily transits: from ~138 ships historically to fewer than 5. The IEA called it the largest energy supply disruption in history. Japan gets 95% of its crude from the Gulf. China: 45% via Hormuz. The emergency reserve release covers 4 days of global consumption. The spread on this chart is a map of who's getting crushed. Read the full breakdown 👇 themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-happens… The Oil War Will End butThe Supply Shock Won't #oott
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@DominicWaghorn With any war, it's worth looking at the alternative. Would Iran regime with nuclear weapons and long range missiles be no threat to anyone?
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Trust me when Ed is worried we all should be
‘both sides are now causing lasting damage to the world economy's life support system’
Ed Conway@EdConwaySky
📽️ There have been many scary, unnerving days in this latest Gulf war. But the past 24 hours was particularly bad. Why? Because both sides are now causing lasting damage to the world economy's life support system. Our latest primer on the econ consequences of this war👇
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@robertgraham He was serious, no question. But if you look at the EU's small troop deployments, and the fact most EU states sent nothing, it's clear EU did not take it seriously. Or did not want to oppose it.
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Trump threatened military action against Danemark to take Greenland.
People ignore this fact, thinking that he didn't really mean it. But Europeans took his threats seriously.
ChrisO_wiki@ChrisO_wiki
1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️
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@dontforgetchaos Well, technically we did invade. People talk about D-Day as an invasion. But we invaded our own place to take it back from another country which had invaded it already.
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Can’t remember the UK invading the Falklands. Must have missed that bit.
Leonard Leonard@Leonard73714140
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@vtchakarova If the rest of the world is not decarbonising, how much difference will it make if only Europe does it?
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The EU doesn’t need to “boost” decarbonization in Europe; brutal reality will take care of it in the next months and years.
Yan Qin@YanQinyq
⬆️On Friday morning EU Carbon price jumped 6% above €67 after the EU Council discussions assured #EUETS intervention measures will be short-term, and the new ETS Investment Booster of 30 billion (from selling 400 million EUAs) implies an avg price expectation of €75/t
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@vtchakarova It's like the joke with sawing off an inch from a table leg so all legs are same length. Then finding out that the other three are now too long. So sawing a bit off them. And on, and on.
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