rupesh.eth

@SethCL Improving eps is interesting... let's see when the numbers start coming out!

Fundamental Fact There has never been 2 consecutive Quarters of negative price returns alongside 2 consecutive Quarters of improving EPS estimates If history repeats, Q2 would deliver positive S&P500 and Nasdaq returns $SPX $SPY $ES_F $NDX $QQQ $COMPQ $AAPL $NVDA $SMH $MSFT $GOOGL $PLTR $MU $CRWD (Earnings Scout data)

BREAKING: Iran claims it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

@Jesse_Livermore Well you were getting your ass kicked... ;-)

@Mr_Derivatives It's like nothing happened - pretty crazy. We now have slower growth, higher inflation, supply chain issues, geopolitical risk still, etc. etc. - stocks just went meh

$SPX In less than 7 trading days, we got back most of February’s losses. Pretty sick if you held on to your shorts ngl.

@Tradytics Will need new ones already it seems

Updated $SPY Whale Targets (will cover everything else tonight in our video). Lower targets have not left the board yet, while we have a new upper target!

@jfhksar88 Clearly working

Probably the most accurate take I’ve seen on here.

@spotgamma Wow

MASSIVE vol crush and may be a big reason the ES rally is so huge. Chart: forward 1-day VIX change from times the VIX closed 25-30 ...this is the 2nd largest ever. Only 1 time in 35 years was the crush bigger from VIX 25-30 regime: 9/18/07: Fed surprise 50bp rate cut

@DeItaone China? LOL

Trump: 'A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT'

@WarMonitor3 LOL but stonks like it so...

Steve Witkoff has reacted with fury to Irans 10 point peace proposal calling it a “disaster and a catastrophe.”

@hashjenni Losers don't set the terms

Trump’s deal with Iran is sounding pretty terrible. They get complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, all sanctions removed, keep their uranium, and keep their missiles? What the hell was the point of the war then????

@Pro__Trading For a $2m fee and subject to approval. Also - only 10-15 per day

UPDATE: Iran has AGREED to open the Strait for two weeks. Absolute masterclass by Trump. He got the Strait open without any help from Europe and without any boots on the ground. Wow.

@cottonfields @BenKizemchuk Entire X says the bottom is in and might be right

@BenKizemchuk where do you get that "consensus this morning that SPX declines are now over"? Over for today, yes. But there are still so much unanswered questions and problems unresolved. Of course the VIX takes a nose-dive, today. Don't think volatility is already over though. Far from.

1) Consensus this morning that SPX declines are now over, but we’ve seen no spike in the index put/call to suggest real capitulation. That signal usually shows up first. Its about systemic institutional hedging. As it stands, the fat lady isn’t even backstage according to this measure. 2) I originally expected we’d tag the JPM call as a reflexive rally high into May/June, after another leg lower into mid-April. Instead, we’ve already hit it overnight. My base case was that the call strike would act as a ceiling, capping rallies and setting up continuation downside. Does that ceiling hold? Something just doesn’t add up here in my opinion. The structure feels off, and I can’t quite reconcile the price action with the positioning. Vibe is off.

@LayahHeilpern 12 hours is up where's the dump?

US and Iran agree to a two week ceasefire. Market pumping How long is it gonna last? I give it 12 hours then the market dumps again! 🤣

@GiveMeADouble @mehdiy_fa @glcarlstrom @SiaKordestani Crude prices disagree with you

@rupechat @mehdiy_fa @glcarlstrom @SiaKordestani The threat of what? The capability to close it has been demonstrated and is available to Iran at any point in the future.

@glcarlstrom @SiaKordestani They haven’t agreed to anything beyond a ceasefire and opening Hormuz. Reaching a full deal will be hard, and the ceasefire may need to be extended for a long time. Trump will not go back to the war, though. He paid a heavy political price and is happy this conflict has ended.

@LizAnnSonders EPS been creeping up - realistic? Idk

S&P 500’s forward P/E currently stands at 19.5…up from March 30 low of 18.9 but well below last October’s high of 23.1

@GiveMeADouble @mehdiy_fa @glcarlstrom @SiaKordestani The card wasn’t the ships per say but the threat

@rupechat @mehdiy_fa @glcarlstrom @SiaKordestani Isn’t Iran limiting the number of ships through the strait and collecting a toll? How did they give anything up?

This is the biggest humiliation & climbdown since Vietnam.

BREAKING: The Iranian National Security Council: "Within a few hours, if the firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel Aviv.."

@PU239WarmingHut @ianmiles Why do you think I said "deal". Wake up.

@rupechat @ianmiles There is no deal. Only a ceasefire baseline to negotiate, which Iran already violated multiple times. Wake up, Spuds.

If US ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz are forced to pay Iran's transit fee in yuan, what does this mean for the petrodollar?