@tangojoshua @colossusmag @patrick_oshag They tried. Many times. Briefly did. Shuttered. One big tech did in macro. And they used data.
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sersabr.hl
1.5K posts
@colossusmag @patrick_oshag I always wondered why Google/Amazon don’t run internal hedge funds with their massive prop data
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Hassabis secretly built a hedge fund inside DeepMind trying to beat Jim Simons. Google shut it down.
Colossus@colossusmag
We're publishing an exclusive chapter from @scmallaby's brilliant new book about Demis Hassabis and DeepMind. This is the inside story of Project Mario. How DeepMind's co-founders spent 4 years trying every mechanism they could think of to put guardrails around AGI, only to watch each one fail, and conclude that the only safeguard was themselves. It reveals that Hassabis ran a secret hedge fund team inside DeepMind trying to beat Renaissance Technologies; Mustafa Suleyman assembled lawyers for a $5 billion walkaway plan; Reid Hoffman committed $1 billion of his personal fortune to back them; Google kept saying yes and no at the same time—and the endless negotiations left Hassabis so distracted that when the transformer paper dropped in 2017, he was less alert to its significance than he might have been. Meanwhile, OpenAI was fighting the mirror-image battle with Musk, Altman, and Sutskever tearing each other apart over the same question: who gets to control AGI? Musk proposed folding OpenAI into Tesla. When that failed, he stormed out. When OpenAI's nonprofit board finally tried to assert authority in 2023, it was crushed in days. Both camps arrived at the same unsettling conclusion, that governance structures don't hold. The best safeguard either side could come up with? Trust us. Read the chapter in the link below.
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sersabr.hl รีทวีตแล้ว
It’s 3 hours since $BASED TGE.
We have done something unprecedented in the space. We launch a token on not just Hyperliquid. Within an hour of launch, Based was live across (in alphabetical order):
Binance Futures
Bybit Spot + Futures
Coinbase
Hyperliquid
Kraken
OKX Spot + Futures
We’ve shown that it is possible to launch on Hyperliquid while being listed across major CEXs globally.
In the last few hours, we have done $160M+ in perp volume and ~$70M across spot and DEX. This places BASED among the more actively traded assets in crypto right now, especially in these market conditions.
23.5% of tokens were airdropped to the Based community without vesting. All airdrops happened on Hyperliquid, delivered directly to users’ wallets on HyperCore. No claim rush. No network congestion. A clean distribution.
To date, 68M tokens are locked through the pre-TGE staking pool, representing ~30% of circulating supply.
As a team, we gave ourselves a mandate to airdrop to the community in less than a year from launching our SuperApp on @HyperliquidX. Why? Because our users deserve it. There are people who gave us excuses like “wait for more favourable market conditions.” We didn’t want to keep people waiting.
When it’s time to launch, it’s time to launch.
I’ve taken a personal interest in token design, first as a DeFi maxi in 2021 and later as a trader (which led me to discover Hyperliquid in 2023). They say “founders should not trade and focus on building.” That’s probably true in the tech world, but in crypto, the token is the core product. The token rallies communities and incentivises stakeholders. TGE is the best time to design a system that aligns the people you need to build a successful crypto protocol.
When it comes to airdrops, you have users who want to sell everything on day one, and people who want to hold and believe in the project. Others want to stay long-term through a pre-TGE staking pool. To date, 68M tokens have been locked, representing ~30% of the circulating supply.
The next part of design is liquidity. Tokens should be liquid and tradable in many places. That’s why we chose to launch on both Hyperliquid and multiple exchanges at the same time.
We’ve shown the world that it is possible to launch on Hyperliquid and also be listed on many CEXs globally.
The journey is not complete.
Now that distribution is done, we will focus on building Based into a full ecosystem — where projects launch, agents operate, and capital flows, all powered by one of crypto’s highest-value user bases: traders who trade big, spend big, and hold with conviction.
For those hearing about $BASED for the first time, our litepaper is here: litepaper.based.one
For those who have received the BASED airdrop and chose to hold, my team and I thank you.
And for those who just bought BASED today, welcome to the @BasedOneX family.
I am done playing not to lose. It's time to play to win.
Stay Based.
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UPDATE 🆕 : Some of you told me that @blockaid_ was the AML firm potentially responsible for this flag. So I contacted them with my address to find out if it really came from them, explaining the full situation.
Many thanks to them for their responsiveness 🙏
I think the message speaks for itself, so I have no idea what is this “independent blockchain analytics provider” that @iliensinc mentioned for justifying my ban ...
Here is their response :
Maxime@MixemaCrypto
I just got banned from @HyperliquidX ?? 😭😭 My main wallet was suddenly flagged as “high risk” by a third-party screening tool, and I can no longer connect to the Hyperliquid frontend I genuinely do not understand this decision, especially because it is happening now. Over the past two months, I had actually been much less active than usual because I was busy with other things and had taken a partial break from trading. I have been trading on Hyperliquid organically for months, usually once or twice a week, and I have been a real supporter of the ecosystem from early on. I am not posting this to attack Hyperliquid, because I still believe the team has built something exceptional. What I do find concerning is how cases like this are handled. I reached out on Discord to understand what happened, and instead of being able to explain myself or get any clarity, I was timed out for a week. I honestly do not believe I did anything wrong. This wallet has been mine for more than 4 to 5 years, and I have never been flagged or reported for suspicious activity on any airdrop or any platform I have ever used. This was also my main address on Hyperliquid, the one where I did most of my activity, with around $750,000 in total volume since the beginning. I know that may be negligible compared with some bigger traders, but it was still my primary account and an important part of my activity on the platform. I will keep trading on Hyperliquid using secondary addresses, because I still support the product, but the lack of transparency and the inability to defend yourself when flagged is genuinely harmful for users. All I am asking for is clarity, a fair review process, and the ability to understand what supposedly triggered this. If anyone can help me, or share any useful information that could help me resolve this situation, I would be immensely grateful !
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@MixemaCrypto @HyperliquidX Did you ever onramp/ offramp from a non-KYC exchange? Those often get flagged from chainalysis.
I think you can use something like debridge to get your funds transferred out to another wallet. Or use the api.
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I just got banned from @HyperliquidX ?? 😭😭
My main wallet was suddenly flagged as “high risk” by a third-party screening tool, and I can no longer connect to the Hyperliquid frontend
I genuinely do not understand this decision, especially because it is happening now.
Over the past two months, I had actually been much less active than usual because I was busy with other things and had taken a partial break from trading.
I have been trading on Hyperliquid organically for months, usually once or twice a week, and I have been a real supporter of the ecosystem from early on. I am not posting this to attack Hyperliquid, because I still believe the team has built something exceptional.
What I do find concerning is how cases like this are handled. I reached out on Discord to understand what happened, and instead of being able to explain myself or get any clarity, I was timed out for a week.
I honestly do not believe I did anything wrong. This wallet has been mine for more than 4 to 5 years, and I have never been flagged or reported for suspicious activity on any airdrop or any platform I have ever used.
This was also my main address on Hyperliquid, the one where I did most of my activity, with around $750,000 in total volume since the beginning. I know that may be negligible compared with some bigger traders, but it was still my primary account and an important part of my activity on the platform.
I will keep trading on Hyperliquid using secondary addresses, because I still support the product, but the lack of transparency and the inability to defend yourself when flagged is genuinely harmful for users.
All I am asking for is clarity, a fair review process, and the ability to understand what supposedly triggered this.
If anyone can help me, or share any useful information that could help me resolve this situation, I would be immensely grateful !
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sersabr.hl รีทวีตแล้ว
I agree demand destruction is a reality, but be careful not to overuse it as if it's some magic word.
In 2016, the FED conducted excellent research on oil price elasticity. At the time, they estimated the elasticity of oil demand and supply using a SVAR model.
Their analysis put the short-term global oil demand elasticity at around -0.1. This means that for every 10% increase in price, demand drops by a mere 1%, suggesting that the market as a whole is extremely inelastic.
Low elasticity implies that even minor shifts in supply or demand require prices to either skyrocket or plummet to rebalance the market. This is the key to explaining the extreme vol of oil prices.
You might bring up 2022 as an example, but back then, prices spiked while actual supply losses were negligible. However the physical supply loss is massive now.
While the share of elastic demand is relatively higher in the petrochem sector, there are virtually no substitutes in industrial raw materials and road transport. To reach a supply-demand equilibrium solely through demand destruction, prices would have to hit the roof.
The market will eventually find its equilibrium of course, but beware of the misguided claims that everything happens magically overnight.
It’s not as if 10% of global demand vanishes in a single day and solves everything. Every process involves time and lagging.
We have currently lost at least 10% of global supply. Since the short-term elasticity of oil demand is so low, prices will have to be incredibly high to force a reduction in demand in response to such a supply destruction.
#oott #iran
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Interesting price action, Bond yields down while oil up 3%, maybe the market is starting to look through the inflationary shock?
From my Substack post yesterday: "My read is that the Disinflation probability creeping up to 15% deserves watching. It has risen 5.7 points over four weeks, which tells me the market is starting to price some scenarios where growth slows enough to drag inflation down with it."
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@sersabr Yes “user operated vaults”, I think protocol vaults are a fantastic bootstrap
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@CRUDEOIL231 Rates / macro community usually flip and can turn the ship around
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It’s truly astounding how much of a delusion the rates desk folks are living in. I get it. Hope is a fine thing, and inertia is something that never fades easily.
You guys were completely wrecked this quarter, and since you’ve been spouting nonsense like "nothing will happen," I understand your desperate scramble to hijack the next narrative.
Yes, demand destruction is real. However that destruction is never linear. Supply and demand are never perfectly proportional to each other. It’s not as if one breaks and the other immediately recalibrates to settle into an equilibrium.
They react by saying, "Rising oil prices? Won't that eventually dampen consumption and demand, leading to a recession?" and then they bet on falling rates or try to dump cyclicals.
Consequently, on Friday some participants played out a scenario of pushing prices up, counting their chickens before they hatched by thinking, "High oil → economic burden → the Fed will get spooked and cut rates three times, right?"
And those trapped in long duration have started blabbing with renewed hope. It’s a total comedy where reality and market expectations are completely out of sync. They aren't accounting for the lag at all.
In contrast, the Fed will hold the line and won't cut rates until inflation is firmly under control and demand has completely broken.
When the market starts getting too far ahead of itself, it creates a paradox that actually undermines the very conditions for a rate cut—yet they aren't even considering that. It’s pure cognitive dissonance.
They compare this to 2022, but: 1) In 2022, the actual supply loss of crude was negligible, whereas now it exceeds 10mb/d; 2) Oil demand, in particular, has a very high share of inelastic demand; 3) Even if demand destruction follows, there is a lag of at least several months before finding an equilibrium.
Please, wake up. It’s true that the fancy rhetoric of finance governing the real world has been very effective until now. However, this time, the aftershocks of the real world are transitioning into finance—do you still not see the difference?
You will all regret this bitterly soon. You still don't realize how dangerous the idea is to skip over all the time-consuming processes just to front-run a distant future outcome.
#oott $tlt
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KYLE SAMANI JUST LEVERAGED $10M WITH DEFI
Kyle Samani has loop-deposited a total of $10M worth of PRIME into Kamino Finance, and borrowed $8.6M USDC against it.
He’s paying a total of 39.4% APY on the USDC stablecoins, but he’s getting 56.4% APY with PRIME. Kyle Samani is a Solana DeFi power user.
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@HangukQuant Because youve got that dawg in you.
HLP was the exception.
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the economic incentive for depositing into user-operated vaults are rather poor.
by design, these vaults are (smart) beta plays with large capacity and run low sharpe asset-gatherer type strategies, such as HYPE beta neutral or trend following.
to be clear, i think they are okay ~ good instruments for the general populace as a tokenized risk management service. but it is important to set reasonable expectations. vaults are aqr multi asset funds in the crypto world
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@fiege_max never ask a man his salary
a woman her age
or a Bruce Jenner of perps their/them volume:OI multiple
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never ask a man his salary
a woman her age
or a hyperliquid killer their volume:OI multiple
Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report@JustDeauIt
So much talk about Hyperliquid of late. But the thing that stands out to me when I look at the Perps market is that @coinbase did more Perps volume than Hyperliquid over the last 30 days. Which begs the question: Does Hyperliquid actually have regulatory arbitrage here? Coinbase generates roughly 87% of its revenue from U.S. customers. So, a relatively small set of its users internationally is generating more volume than Hyperliquid in a bear market. That's notable to me and counter to the prevailing CT narratives. --- P.S. in the last bear market I spent the most time studying "high throughput chains." This is what led to our SOL allocation at the lows. In this bear market, I'm spending the most time on the Perps market. We're releasing a deep dive for readers tomorrow. If you'd like to have the latest research hit your inbox when it's published, you can sign up below 👇
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24/7 Equity Perpetuals DAS NYC Keynote
Hyperliquid
TradeXYZ
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@_stevenhl USDH needs a memecoin. One thats special. There would be no HYPE without PURR.
USDH needs to PURR.
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If I was Jeff, this would be my game plan to drive USDH adoption:
1) Deploy HIP-4 (remember, these are USDH denominated)
2) Launch validator operated crypto perps for USDH, e.g BTC-USDH
3) Announce incentives
With these, I’m willing to bet the user base will migrate to USDH.
barthazian.eth 巴特@Barthazian
USDH to native markets was not a good idea. these pairs directly suffer from liquidity, and pretty certain the stable coin being different plays in a lot to that, similar dynamics can be seen with hyena but muh hyperliquid aligned
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