@HayekAndKeynes @spotgamma I bet we get neither as he babble incoherently. Is there a market confusion indicator?
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tsxrunner
2.1K posts
tsxrunner
@tsxrunner
Esquire of the law, passionate about finance
เข้าร่วม Ağustos 2020
228 กำลังติดตาม78 ผู้ติดตาม
Daily note from @spotgamma
“Update 4/1: "Make or break". If Trump's 9PM presser is "deescalation & deal" then SPX likely rallies to ~6,750 into a long weekend, as implied vol gets crushed. A sign of "more war" could, in turn, lead to a very violent selloff as we see no real support until 6,250. VIX would also likely go +40, as 3/18 & 3/31 expirations have removed downside buffers.”
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VIX is back at 24 from 30.
That was a big part of the asymmetric risk-reward last week (lots of delta to buy as vol comes in - it was trading super rich). With oil still over $100 we will need real action to get similarly large moves from here.
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YouTube
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If the Gulf states really join the fight it may accelerate the opening of the Strait but at the potential cost of serious, far longer lasting damage to their upstream production, processing, and loading infrastructure
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
*UAE PREPARING TO HELP US OPEN HORMUZ BY FORCE: WSJ *UAE LOBBYING FOR UNSC RESOLUTION TO AUTHORIZE ACTION: WSJ
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@eteekswe @Rory_Johnston Serve over rice while saying “we’re winning” as the kitchen oil catches fire 🔥
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@eteekswe @Rory_Johnston Melt butter, add flour, stir like Donald Trump trying to explain how he’s not stuck in a war in Iran. Throw in veggies, things look under control.
Add stock, suddenly it’s escalating.
Add shrimp, now it’s happening fast and nobody has a clear exit strategy.
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This is exactly what my base case unilateral TACO scenario looks like, fwiw.
WSJ: “President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran's firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”
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@thecashman22 @nachkari Suicidal zealots strapped with explosives in us public places.
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At this point what is the downside for the US to just keep hammering them? Iran is going to keep the straight closed either way.
Ph.Gritti@Philipp27960841
Apparently, bunker-buster bombs have managed to penetrate the missile base in Isfahan, and secondary explosions are continuing.
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@eteekswe @Rory_Johnston Jan 28, 2024 — Tower 22 :
3 U.S. soldiers killed, 40+ injured. The U.S. launched major retaliatory airstrikes (Feb 2, 2024) against Iran-backed militia targets in Iraq and Syria, hitting command centers, weapons depots, and drone infrastructure tied to Hezbollah.
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@tsxrunner @Rory_Johnston Quickly which one of those attacks resulted in US fatalities and what was the ensuing response?
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@eteekswe @Rory_Johnston Mar 2024—Al Tanf Garrison (Syria)—drones;
Jun 14, 2025—Kharab al Jir (Syria)—rockets;
Jun 15, 2025—Shaddadi (Syria)—rockets; Jun 18, 2025—Rumalyn LZ (Syria)—rockets;
Feb 28, 2026—Erbil Airport (Iraq)—missiles;
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@eteekswe @Rory_Johnston Nov 14, 2023—Al Omar Oil Field (Syria)—rockets;
Dec 8, 2023—U.S. Embassy Baghdad (Iraq)—rockets;
Dec 25, 2023—Erbil Airbase (Iraq)—one-way drone;
Jan 28, 2024—Tower 22 (Jordan–Syria border)—one-way drone;
Feb 4, 2024—Al Asad Airbase (Iraq)—missiles/rockets;
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@johnarnold @nachkari Knowing how much Trump cares about the stock market it’s perfectly rational for a bunch of zealot to avenge the murder of their leader by inflicting maximum political pain. Nothing else matters.
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Every podcast on the war:
Guest: "If Iran does the rational thing and agrees to a negotiated settlement, it will be fine."
Host: "And if not?"
Guest: "Then it's a tough situation."
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@HayekAndKeynes @JavierBlas I’m guessing the assumption is he can take kharg by force but not damage it beyond repair because oil price would blow up to a level that would crush his midterm prospects. I’m not sure this assumption is as solid as people think.
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@JavierBlas If Trump wanted to bomb every terminal they could in about 30 minutes. I don’t understand the point of this thread.
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KHARG ISLAND — a thread:
Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough.
🧵1/10 @Opinion
FREE-TO-READ:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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@HayekAndKeynes Tesla is no where close to Waymo. It’s all blabber and electric semitrailers going downhill again.
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Also a perfect time to reframe the immigration debate knowing we have…
AI wiping out call centers
Waymo/Tesla coming for Uber/DoorDash
Deere coming for farm hands
Optimus coming for cleaning ladies and health aides
It’s now no surprise we have vocal proponents of mass migration like Larry Fink and Hillary Clinton now issuing a mea culpas saying it went to far and is now a liability. Fink went so far as to say that Xenophobic counties with shrinking populations will be seen as a good thing.
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@profplum99 Neither. It’s cost. Ask people who do taxes to tell you about trades people and their business revenues. Then look at quota’s on apprenticeship. You’ll get it.
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This is incorrect. Absolute housing unit growth rates were higher in Anglophone/common law countries. The results shown here are due to population growth differences.
As a result, we can’t assert its NIMBYism or permitting differences.
John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch
Underrated factor in why English-speaking countries have especially bad housing crises is their common law systems (adversarial and litigious) vs judge-led civil law systems elsewhere. Makes Anglo planning/permitting systems especially vulnerable to NIMBYs and other objections.
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@HayekAndKeynes @VraiNom554355 But that’s by far the biggest item in people’s mind. He’s gonna crushed by foodflation.
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@VraiNom554355 Yes. We have record low herds and stopped importing Mexican beef due to screwworm
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Here is the source of the vibecesson
We have outright deflation in rent, gas, eggs and milk vs last year but blue collar workers are expecting the squeeze to continue… inflation expectations are near 7%! They aren’t thinking about 12m changes and saying problem solved. They expect what they just lived through to happen again.
This is crucial for midterms
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