Jonquil Capital

Quarterly whiplash on $IDT is always a little bit surprising. I thought the overall results were pretty solid. Beat and raise, so naturally down 7%. Now a 6x EBITDA for a pretty good business.

I’ve cut my valuation of NRS in half which more less matches the drop in market cap we’ve seen. If terminal growth picks back up even modestly… the stock is pretty undervalued. Estimate ~1.5B equity value today conservatively with upside to 1.7 to 1.8 if NRS can get right.

A lot to digest on the most recent $idt Q, it was bound to be bad with the most recent monthly report showing no growth in NRS terminals.

Looks like a strong Q at $CZBS. Solid growth in deposits from Q3 and AOCI up 5m which maybe in part is a reversal of the Q3 reserve taken.

+5.75% in q4 +26.37% ytd Just happy to keep up with SP500 with a small / mid cap portfolio.

@InvestRoiss @JonChoivo @MikeFritzell I think that makes sense, hard to untangle it. Loans from Kaspi and Halyk increased about 1.6T KZT YoY which is a little under 2% of GDP, so maybe that played a factor but headwinds from O&G prices would mute a lot of the expansion of credit imo

Interesting, though whenever a single company's revenues end up at several % of a country's GDP, you wonder whether there's been money laundering involved. Macau, Cambodia the most prominent examples.

@MikeFritzell It’s about 2% of GDP, which is similar to a Walmart or Amazon. Same for Halyk Bank which is about 2% of GDP as well. I think skepticism is warranted in the geo, but I don’t think size alone is a concern for the business.

@JonChoivo @MikeFritzell At least on the payments business, it’s a transition from cash to cashlesss payment methods not a growth of the overall market. E-commerce maybe there’s a point but it’s the same thing where e-commerce is taking share from physical retail

@MikeFritzell If you look at the retail growth of Kazakhstan, you start to find the numbers suspicious. How can their growth be strongly positive when Kazakhstan is negative

@docnovak @100xCompounding youtube.com/watch?v=Nj9sRI…

@100xCompounding Wow Thanks for the link. 🙄

Over on YouTube they just released Charlie’s last interview done a few days ago in anticipation of his 100th birthday, it was a really sobering insightful interview I’d suggest watching

@archiecoder I love to see it - the market is a capricious beast lol

@william_zing oh it's green today.

$IDT should be up 50%+ on this news imo

@archiecoder NRS ad revenues came in down like 40% YoY but that should have been expected imo. Other than that everything looks fine. Surprised a bit at the market reaction, but it will be interesting to hear management's commentary about the Q

@william_zing Was the earnings so bad today? It’s off 8%

@wile_zzz I wrote a bit more about it here: seekingalpha.com/article/462314…

@wile_zzz High chance that the position is way too large, but it seems like the market is too focused on the headline liability numbers and not the weighted average outcome. If they lose the suit, I think it's $5-$15 per share in losses, but I think the stock is worth ~$48 ex-the lawsuit.

+6.9% in Q3, +19.5% ytd All of gain in Q3 was from a super fortunate trade on SIMO, I'm just going to keep waiting for the market to agree with me pretty much everywhere else. Added to $IDT and $ILLM.TO, and sold Meta. No other changes.

@AUAnalyst More risk to it, but I think these guys are not going to buy the new planes unless they think they can get really strong economics on them.

@william_zing I still have trouble with the risk/reward of buying larger planes. Can their level of cash buy enough CRJ700s to justify the expenditure? Seems a major gamble vs returning the cash and winding up the biz in 5 years…

Some notes on the $HRBR 10q United arbitration decision expected in Q4 with ~7m in legal expenses this quarter. Given the relatively high legal expenses, I don't think they would have pursued this unless they felt confident in the outcome.

@babykswanson @FoxLakeCapital @DeepSailCapital @AmzDot @FriendlyCapMgmt Not a lawyer, but 600m in headline liability from the FCC fines on straightpath seem out of whack. Straightpath was majority owned by the plaintiffs so minority shareholders could have realistic damages of ~300m and IDT has some coverage from liability insurance,no idea how much.

@FoxLakeCapital @DeepSailCapital @AmzDot @FriendlyCapMgmt I can't speak to the legal merits. But if you just ask me "did Howard Jonas break his fiduciary duties towards the shareholders of Straight Path", my answer is Yes, without the shadow of a doubt. Should current IDT shareholders be punished for it? I think not.

$IDT I spent soooo much time on it. Thought it was the one. 😥

All in all, probably still waiting until arbitration settlement before anything exciting happens with the stock. Longer term, I think the cash position will slowly be used to add CRJ-700s and hopefully continue getting whatever value they can out of the CRJ-200s in the meantime.

Notice of default on the aircraft credit agreement seems really strange. It's nice to have 48m in debt at 4%, but the cash & equivalents are not earning much more than that so not the end of the world to pay this if it comes to it.