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In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk



































