Hey Dan, it's me!

@butt_watermelon Thanks to Trump, OPEC oil is now $135, which is more than enough to result in a rapid transition to electric road transport. So any supply that isn't brought online very quickly may miss its window.

I feel like everyone forgets that the United States of America has insane amounts of oil that just requires around $100 a barrel to be profitable to extract.

@RonTannert @dorfman_p We have large hills of stabilised fly ash from coal power stations in South Australia. I'm sure we can handle the vastly smaller issue of E-waste from solar panels. Mostly likely by recycling them.

@dorfman_p Absolutely wonderful Dr. Paul...but I have a question. What happens 20-years from now when China decides not to sell you more solar panels and your landfill is full of the old ones? 🤔

South Australia expected – within 18 months – to become first gigawatt-scale grid in the world to reach 100% net #renewables (net refers to the fact that it imports and exports at times and is not an isolated grid), and is already running at a 75% share of wind and solar. reneweconomy.com.au/grow-your-own-…

@ramez Australian yields will go down, but we'll receive higher prices for the grain and meat we export. The world's poor are those who will suffer.

The fertilizer crisis brewing because of Hormuz is going to be felt predominantly by people in some of the poorest nations on earth. Americans will only barely notice. Why? 1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much fertilizer per acre today that crop yields already show diminishing returns from fertilizer. You can cut back fertilizer application by double digit percentages and see quite small yield impacts. 2. Only maybe 10% of what Americans spend on food pays for what's coming off the farm. Farm commodity price surges get highly diluted before they reach American pocket books. 3. Poorer nations food budgets are much closer to actual farm commodity prices. Percentage changes in crops affect poor nation residents much more directly. 4. Poor nation farmers can afford much less fertilizer already, and are at the usage levels of steep gains, where any fertilizer reduction directly impacts crop yields. They're the ones most likely to cut back. Those poor nations are the ones to see crop yields decline and food spending soar. Rich country residents might see some prices tick up. Poor countries may see hunger and food insecurity directly rise. DOD and the US intelligence community have long warned that risks to food, water, and climate are threat multipliers. They increase the risk of state failure of Least Developed Countries. That in turn creates the conditions for civil war and breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism, along with migration. These things are very hard to predict. We might get lucky. Second order effects may be muted. Or we may see unexpected and unpleasant ripple effects from the developing world.

@twaitiblog @rationalaussie Not if I'm willing to pay 1c more than anyone else. Also, I just booked a flight. 2,000km as the crow flies. It wasn't cheap, but it wasn't super expensive. Certainly not the price of an airline that thinks the fuel in their tanks is all they'll have for long time.

@HeyDanitsme @rationalaussie The oversupply will be used by those closest to supply chains

It's entirely possible flights into and out of Australia become prohibitively expensive because we are so far away from the rest of the world.

@twaitiblog @rationalaussie Companies in need of aviation fuel can buy it at the (high) spot price & will continue to be able to buy it. If producers refuse to sell, it will trash international aviation, which accounts for 65% of aviation fuel use, resulting in an oversupply.

Jet fuel strictly speaking isn’t needed for us to supply critical minerals. It depends how good the Australian government are at negotiations and how much they want “climate-polluting” jet fuel for us plebs. Given the history of Australia giving away resources for cheap for decades I don’t have high expectations.

@larissawaters Making public transport free outside of peak periods when it has spare capacity is also a reasonable option.

Making public transport free, for as long as this crisis goes on for, must be on the table at National Cabinet today. This would be immediate cost-of-living relief, and take the pressure off fuel supplies. Billionaires took us to war, and the rest of us are paying for it.

@twaitiblog @rationalaussie SOUTH KOREA: We're not selling you aviation fuel anymore. AUSTRALIA: Do you want the LPG, Coal, iron ore, crude oil, & food we normally sell you? SOUTH KOREA: Nah, we're good. We've finally realised that North Korea had it right.

Between other bits of Asia, where fuel will be relatively plentiful, because the supply chains are local to them. Your question is most relevant to Australia, a foreign plane can fuel up overseas, but what is the guarantee it can refuel in Australia? Would they risk flying here at all? Would Qantas planes even have the fuel to even depart Australia? Most likely outcome is Qantas ends up running very few flights and monopolises the whole sector

@Peter_Fitz Fortunately, it's very difficult for Trump to derail US mid-term elections, as they are run by the states. But he's going to try. Unless there is enough pushback now, attempts will include violence.

What chance Trump will find a way to derail the mid-terms?

@twaitiblog @rationalaussie And just where are they going to fly? How are they going to get home if other countries don't have any aviation fuel?

@HeyDanitsme @rationalaussie There will literally be no jet fuel because China and others will hoard it

@Cloons0 @rationalaussie Yes, it's world depression time. But the rich and well off will still be able fly. There will just be fewer rich and well off.

@HeyDanitsme @rationalaussie Ceteris paribas but that's unlikely. If we're seeing those sorts of impacts on aviation just imagine the impacts we'll see more broadly locally.

@averagearc Crikey, mate! Ya just need some really ripped kangas.

bridge autist here, ideally the wildlife bridge should connect on both sides, otherwise it's probably fraudulent. (And if it only connects to one side, it's just a shit pier.) here are some examples local to me.

@CalumDouglas1 This is why Japan produced motorbikes after the war that ran on turpentine.

The Japanese in WW2 were often extremely inventive and flexible, when severe shortages of aviation fuel for military aircraft became apparent, they made plans for producing 2.5 million barells of crude oil per year, resulting in 400,000 barells a year of aviation fuel... from pine-trees. The operation involved the creation of 36 thousand individual pine oil retorts, many in rual Japan. The process worked and the US Navy reported that the programme was "well underway" by the time of the surrender. The production volumes discussed were quite low (about 15x less than Luftwaffe fuel production in 1940), but as part of a wider programme to make fuel by various means, did work. Less absurd that it sounds, the overall idea of having a lot of distributed fuel plants was one proposed by German planners before WW2, in order to make the resulting systems difficult to injure from the air. The planners were ignored, and instead, very large individual plants were made, which, when they were finally assaulted with maxumum effort in 1944, utterly annihlated the entire German industrial effort in six months. The proposal in Germany, was to set up plants which made about 15,000 barells per year - the result was predicted to increase the production cost from 20 to 27 pfennigs per litre. Professor Steinmann from the Energy-Institute at Berlin University, and his mass "micro-brewery" plan, was overuled. And the huge plants were built, it was found that 4000lb bombs were the most effective, and it was possible in certain cases for a single hit by a 4000lb bomb to render a plant a write-off.

@zerohedge Nah. We will buy fuel from overseas on account of how we're willing to pay high prices. If we weren't we'd run out, but we are, so we won't.

Australia Has One Month Before Energy Crisis And Fuel Rationing zerohedge.com/geopolitical/a…

@AvidCommentator LPG tracks oil prices, so using a big LPG car if a smaller more efficient petrol one is available will probably be a false economy. But our few hundred LPG semis are nice to have, along with our hundred or so electric semis. If only we had 100,000 more.

Pro tip: Australia has 98 days worth of LPG fuel for cars stockpiled. Time to fire up the old Commodore's and Falcon's with the gas conversions.

@mattparlmer First, the British attempted to force a passage through the Dardanelles using naval power. It failed. Three battleships were sunk, with other ships sunk or damaged. Mines caused the most losses. Then they tried boots on ground with Australians & New Zealanders. That also failed.

This is just line of sight from mountaintops, which they don’t need to target ships or beachheads with drones or missiles given their access to Chinese and Russian satellite reconnaissance We cannot allow an American Gallipoli, this would be a one way trip for a lot of our guys

@mattyglesias OPEC oil in Asia is $133. That seems reasonable given the world filled its oil storage because Trump was President & there's still a good chance he'll declare victory and withdraw. Fingers crossed.

I continue to be a little puzzled oil isn’t higher — *precisely because* the economy is now more resilient to oil shocks than it was in the past, I would expect a supply disruption to cause a *larger* price spike because the demand still needs to be destroyed.

@bowtiedstocks We're not set to run out of fuel in a month. This is because many of us are willing to pay a high price for oil products, and so we bid away supply from users in other countries.

Filled up the hybrid fuel tank at 229.90 this morning, regular unleaded If we’re set to run out of fuel in a month, shouldn’t a much more effective and higher price signal be getting used ?

@alexbhturnbull If you're willing to pay money, you can get diesel. We will cut back, but we will also definitely pay money.

The funny thing about coal stocks here is that if you cannot get diesel you cannot make money. Who can get diesel now? - China - Mongolia - USA - ???? Aus and Indo a bit unclear. #coal

@adamscochran @mansourtarek_ @Alfred_Lin @matthuang @aleximm @luanalopeslara @_charlienoyes @abhishekm1636 They started by shaking hands with each other. This wasn't any worse.

@mansourtarek_ @Alfred_Lin @matthuang @aleximm @luanalopeslara @_charlienoyes @abhishekm1636 On the street?!?!??!? Ew!

This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended. cc @Alfred_Lin @matthuang @aleximm @luanalopeslara @_charlienoyes @abhishekm1636