ExAdTechQuant
444 posts

ExAdTechQuant
@Ad_Quant
not financial advice
Atherton, CA Sumali Eylül 2025
181 Sinusundan220 Mga Tagasunod
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AppLovin $APP: The Cash Machine Wall Street Is Too Stupid To Price Correctly
Every year, like clockwork, the market finds a new reason to piss its pants.
In 2022, it was the Fed, in 2024 it was the Yen carry trade, in 2025, it was tariffs.
Now, the geniuses on the Street are talking about "AI disruption" killing AppLovin. It’s the same tired-ass cycle of fear that creates the kind of asymmetric entry points that make careers.
While the "experts" are busy hand-wringing over macro headlines and geopolitical noise in the Middle East, they’re missing a fundamental point:
The Margins Are Absolute Insanity
Let’s look at the Q4 2025 numbers, because frankly, they’re solid for anyone who actually understands a balance sheet.
Revenue grew 66% YoY. That’s fine, but look at the efficiency. An 84% EBITDA margin and a 79% Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin.
or every $100 that walks through the door, $80 goes straight into the bank as cold, hard cash.
There are SaaS companies out there trading at 20x revenue that would sell their own mothers for a 30% FCF margin.
AppLovin is doing 79%. it’s a statistical anomaly in the tech sector. If they maintain even a fraction of this efficiency while expanding, we’re looking at the most undervalued FCF-yield play in the U.S. market. Period.
AXON 2.0: Beyond the Gaming Sandbox
The bear case usually boils down to: "They’re a one-trick pony for mobile games."
That’s total bullshit. The recent Morgan Stanley TMT conference confirmed what anyone paying attention already knew AXON 2.0 is moving into e-commerce.
By partnering with Stagwell, they’re getting a firehose of enterprise-grade data to feed the engine. AXON is already the gold standard for mobile ad-tech performance.
Applying that same AI-driven logic to the broader e-commerce niche is a massive strategic pivot that the market is currently pricing at zero.
APP has a legitimate shot at becoming the third pillar of digital advertising, right behind Meta and Google. Calling it a "gaming company" in 2026 is like calling Amazon a "bookstore" in 2005. It’s ignorant.




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@Jasonsmys I’m not betting against Gio and this team he is building
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Love all the doubt on $APP . Proves most of you don’t know shit about mobile advertising. Adam going to put that Anaconda on your heads in early May. @Nietschecapital @dogballcapital wake up mates
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AppLovin launches AI-enabled video creative generation
AppLovin is launching AI-enabled video generation to optimize eCommerce ads for in-game environments. By repurposing assets through generative models, the platform addresses the performance gap between social media creatives and full-screen mobile placements. This rollout highlights how proprietary performance data and flexible advertiser bases enable rapid platform-level innovation.
mobiledevmemo.com/applovin-launc…

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@Ad_Quant @bombayquant @WisemanCap If they could’ve built applovin they would’ve built applovin. Cloudx is the latest in a series of attempts to build something with a kernel of potential that gets acquired.
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$TTD Buy the weakness - Benchmark
- We are buyers of TDD shares on related weakness
- Suspects Publicis and Omnicom are desiring to bring attention to TTD issues with transparency on fees "to divert from their own historically opaque pricing and margin pools that are increasingly under the microscope..."
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@bombayquant @WisemanCap CloudX is not ex applovin founders mate. These were acquihires, and let’s be very clear that Max and MoPub were dog shit before AppLovin took them over
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@WisemanCap Naah, $APP and $META much better at this levels. Penetration is very deep for them. Very unlikely $TTD will have a growth cycle like that. Now with CloudX (ex- App Lovin Founders) ROAS incremental revenue will be distinguished as to where the source channel is from.
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I’d think today’s software $IGV sell off is related to anthropic software that just came out. Wouldn’t call it irrational, it’s just that terminal values are now being questioned.
I still believe ultimately, software will have plenty of winners. Though in the short term it is hard to fight the market.
I continue to be bullish $RBRK $APP $RDDT
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@mathlonning IMO, $APP and $RDDT trade like software stocks but they shouldn’t… much different platforms and business models than companies like $TEAM $HUBS $CRM $WIX $DUOL $GTLB etc.
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@_DomDav @cloudx Good read @Nietschecapital @dogballcapital doesn’t seem like cloudX value prop is providing much value to publishers. Smoke and mirrors for a founding crew that’s done this same bit 3 times now. Nothing new or innovative just another mediation play 😂
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Nah, few reasons:
1) latency = imp loss, bad signal, lower return on buy side, in turn impact on sell side. Bad for everyone.
2) less dense auctions w/ fewer bidders is bad for publishers.
3) manually prioritizing who can buy inventory is old tech and methodology. Not a single publisher ever made more money running a waterfall vs a bidder setup. Long term or short term. Publishers do try to game the auctions by running a multi ad unit setup with ad units with bid floors, but the bidders have caught on and it’s not really a substantial or sustainable way to catch an edge anymore. Publishers can do this on any mediation tho.
I do agree that ads are getting long, but every network has 60+ second ads. This doesn’t solve systemically.
You could make the case that “if I show my users less relevant or engaging ads, they will stick around longer,” but that’s a severely oversimplified and broken way of thinking.
Lastly, the post accuses mediations of favoring their demand if they run a network. A little known fact is that bidders reserve the right to audit the auctions, which they do. If $META, $GOOG, $U, $APPS, $PUBM, or $MOBVF ever caught a slight possibility of an unfair or biased auction, the market would know.
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Most monetization platforms are designed to facilitate a single auction per impression opportunity. This simplicity comes at a cost. For one, a race to the bottom in ad quality and a subsequent hit to publisher retention.
With CloudX, publishers are able to set up multiple auction rounds per impression opportunity, controlling who competes in each round and under what terms, while still preserving a highest bid wins dynamic within each round.
For publishers, this enables increased pricing power and the ability to work more flexibly with demand partners.
Read our latest blog post at the link below, and get in touch if you'd like to learn more: hello@cloudx.io
cloudx.ai/posts/auction-…
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$APP looking very good in the most recent @northbeam data... especially the ROAS number
I have $APP doing at least $6.9B of ebitda in CY2026 (vs sell side at $6.7B)... knowing this number could easily be over $7.0B+ which would take approx $8.35B+ revs (sell side is at $8.03B) with 84% ebitda margins (sell side is at 83.9%)
Even if we split the difference and say $6.8B ebitda, it means $APP is currently trading at 21x CY2026 ev/ebitda with ebitda growing at least 50% this year and perhaps another 40% next year.
$APP is too cheap at these prices.
NFA.
DYOR.
*I own $APP personally and so does @FirstWaveFund


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ExAdTechQuant nag-retweet

While macro uncertainty continues, focus on fundamentals. $APP's biz model delivers in any environment. Time spent gaming (and related purchases) likely increases if travel reduces. $APP's PE, after adjusting for its amazing FCF generation (see embedded note) and growth is at 0.6x today vs. $Meta at 3.1x, $GOOG at 3.9x and $ZETA at 1.1x. I've been buying!

Praful Mehta@mehtapraful123
What is $APP fair value? Here is a simple analysis using PE multiples to highlight that $APP is the CHEAPEST in its sector and even if it conservatively trades at a sector multiple, it should be a $700 stock. The analysis adjusts PE multiples for FCF conversion and growth rates.
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$app theres been a lot of recent chatter on X of me deserting the $app cult. I would like to let you guys know I was just on a podcast talking $app only. youtube.com/watch?v=q5ji7q…

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