one shitty deal

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one shitty deal

one shitty deal

@Timberwolf_1

Boy that Timberwolf was one shitty deal.

Sumali Aralık 2025
578 Sinusundan61 Mga Tagasunod
one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@Larryjamieson_ @GaryMarcus depends on the code and what you’re writing. for a lot of devs the different models are better at different things. for example, i’m cheap so im willing to accept deepseek, others prefer to mainline the claude api and run up a 500m bill
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Buyback Capital
Buyback Capital@Larryjamieson_·
@GaryMarcus won't products like Code actually go to a winner takes all dynamic? whoever gets the most training data (i.e. most engineers using the product) gets a recursively better product
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Gary Marcus
Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus·
Why things will eventually fall apart: 1. Everybody, even Google, seems to be treating AI as if it were some kind of winner take all competition like web search was, in which Google taking over 95% 2. But everybody is building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat. 3. If there is no moat, nobody is going to take 90% of the market. 4. With no clear winners, nobody can charge monopoly prices; instead, you get price wars and commodity pricing. 5. Which means everybody will wind up overpaying compared to the modest profits they will be able to make in an intensely competitive regime. Am I missing something?
Deirdre Bosa@dee_bosa

Alphabet generated over $160b in operating cash flow last year… yet it’s still issuing $40b+ in equity to fund AI compute (including a private placement to berkshire) One of the biggest cash generators in tech is diluting to keep up

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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@LeeRespecter That’s not to say Oxfam or those dickheads in the greens are financially literate though
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@LeeRespecter Anthro is supposedly pulling 50 yards in ARR and profitable, and SK Hynix / Samsung are about to have a tax bill that can pay off half of SK debt, there’s definitely pockets of profitability atm
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LeeKuanYewRespecter
LeeKuanYewRespecter@LeeRespecter·
The communists at the Greens, Guardian, and Oxfam pop up once a year to remind us they have no idea how money works. Oxfam’s latest report seriously claims a great deal of new wealth has come from AI and data centres. Only no one has made real money from AI yet. And data centres may well end up stranded assets in a few years. They don’t even understand the difference between valuations and cash. Disqualifying.
Larissa Waters@larissawaters

The 20 richest Australians have more money than 3 million households. Why is that a problem? Because billionaires have more money than ever before, and they’re using it to buy more political influence.

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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@ArguableM @db_econ that’s just a function of APRA rules, home loans get more favourable treatment for RWA purposes than most other lending
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arguable mutual
arguable mutual@ArguableM·
@db_econ The crazier fact is that mortgages are somehow still the_high_ margin product banks want to sell
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Dom
Dom@db_econ·
I've tweeted this chart before but it really isn't understood widely enough that we knocked nearly 3pp off of borrowing rates in the space of 20 years since the early 90s.
Dom tweet media
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@db_econ it makes sense that NIM drops as rates go lower though. for example at call checking accounts are typically pretty close to zero regardless of RBAOCR, as cash rate drops those checking accounts don’t move
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Dom
Dom@db_econ·
this happened at the same time as bank funding got cheaper too!
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@TheKouk they’re running a deficit, by definition that’s inflationary you illiterate clown
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Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·
Lovely chart from the good folk at CBA. The line indicates when Labor were elected. What's all this about govt spending driving in flation higher?
Stephen Koukoulas tweet media
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Max Uechtritz
Max Uechtritz@plesbilongmi·
Am told that Red Bridge polled 1005 people for their Hanson 'result'. Anyone confirm or correct that? There are approx 18.2 million enrolled voters in Australia. Some wild reporting out there considering that and other context.
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@michaelsnape breaking news: business owner wants to pay employees less and get larger profit margins more at 5
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Interested Onlooker
Interested Onlooker@michaelsnape·
Insightful stuff from Murph's Mum here. Apparently Pauline has been bought by this mysterious GR GR wants workers to be paid less More if this info please
💧MurphsMum@gramazzy4

@michaelsnape If new followers do not read up on how she votes they are in for a huge shock.She is bought by GR who has stated she wants workers to be paid a lot less.Follower of RpTrump who has decimated health care,women’s rights to name a few.Dont be ignorant of PH record.

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Andrew Leigh
Andrew Leigh@ALeighMP·
We’re replacing the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexation. Rule of thumb: if an asset’s price rises by less than twice inflation, indexation leaves you better off. Saul Eslake’s analysis shows that’s been true for ASX share prices since 1999. #auspol #ausecon
Andrew Leigh tweet media
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one shitty deal nag-retweet
The Red Piranha
The Red Piranha@TheRedPiranha·
Oh sweet baby Jesus, look at this pathetic little performance. @Ashpolitik, you absolute starving, drooling, bottom-of-the-barrel attention whore, you didn’t just pin your sad little “Subscribe to me, please god someone love me” Facebook group ad under an ABS chart. You nailed it there like a desperate Tinder bio with your best brooding “hand on chin, I’m deep in thought about GDP” selfie. That dead-eyed stare screaming “notice me, senpai” while the graph quietly does the actual work. Congratulations, king. You’ve mastered the ancient art of copy-pasting official stats, slapping on a blue tick, and pretending you’re some Antipodean macro oracle. The data’s fine, private capex absolutely gangbanged expectations thanks to AI data centre porn and equipment spending going full erect. But you? You’re not analysing shit. You’re just the greasy dude outside the club handing out flyers for your failing OnlyFans while the hot girl (the actual economy data) gets all the attention. “Subscribe now? Surface=pinned_comments”, mate, the thirst is so thick I need a snorkel. This isn’t content. This is digital prostitution with extra steps. One sad Facebook group, some official numbers you didn’t create, and a selfie that looks like you just got ghosted by the RBA. The pinned comment is basically economic cuckoldry: “Here’s something important… now please validate me, strangers.” You’re not a commentator. You’re a content tapeworm, latching onto real stats, sucking the engagement out, and leaving nothing but self-promo slime. The “someone to love me” energy is nuclear. At this rate you’ll be DMing your followers “hey babe, thoughts on building approvals? No pressure but my mortgage is due 😭”. Fucking embarrassing.
The Red Piranha tweet media
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@econoadabsurdam i guess i’m part of the geeky programmer class here because i was trying to workout what data structures and algorithms had to do with trust fund kids 😂
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@RizviAbul @pwafork Not everyone can live off a generous tax payer funded defined benefit pension, Abul. You seem to think your expertise is in migration, not tax and investment, maybe stay in your lane?
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Abul Rizvi
Abul Rizvi@RizviAbul·
@pwafork Is that what you worked out while in your Sky After Dark cave? You do know there are other ways of seeking out facts than just reaching into your arse hole!
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Abul Rizvi
Abul Rizvi@RizviAbul·
Must be an extraordinary number of Aussies making capital gains? A bit like all those retirees who were getting the Franking Credits they had never heard of.
Robin Dods@toy59496

The End of DIY Tax Returns. x.com/toy59496/statu… Currently 43% of Australians do their own tax without an accountant - well, not anymore. Every single Australian will need an accountant after the new Labour CGT policy. Under the old system it was easy, you took away your purchase price from your sale price, if you'd held it for more than 12 months you divided by 2. No problem for almost anybody to execute that arithmetic that got past Grade 4. Not anymore. Look at this table which I've created for quarterly inflation figures over 30 years. Imagine Bob the pensioner has a portfolio of 20 stocks over 15 years each with a dividend reinvestment program. He will have to figure out which quarter he bought the shares, which quarter he sold the shares, and divide the two numbers to get his inflation correction. For each dividend he will need to do the same thing. Overall he will have to consult the table 1,280 times. That is total nuts. Of course he is not going to do that...he's going to be forced to get an accountant with fees that may be more than he actually earnt from his shares. He won't have access to the fancy software that does these calculations or even understand how it works if he did purchase the fancy software. It's no longer simple arithmetic. A fair and equitable tax system must be easily understood and as simple as possible to implement. This is neither easily understood and far from simple to implement. It's also impossible for Bob to make a good guess as to how things are going to go on the future. Too many numbers. Too hard. It is an administrative nightmare.

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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
You’re kidding right? if course A is a cash cow, there’s an incentive to make that course easier to pass because you want to keep the intl student cash flow coming for that course yes, that added money helps fund smaller courses like you say, but at the detriment of the initial courses standards. that pressure doesn’t exist with the course dominated by local students. i’m going through this now!!
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Emu Brigadier
Emu Brigadier@emubrigadier·
It does not matter who takes them. What matters is that income from big courses (say, Accounting 101) subsidizes small courses. If a university has a deep-dive course on a particular topic, and it's niche enough (say, Foreign Policy of Putin's Russia), and even if only Aussie kids take it, it will be on the chopping block once big courses generate less income.
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@emubrigadier @satvikrsharma i’d rather have less of those courses than the current status quo. intl students drag down the overall quality of courses because the uni is incentivised to make them vastly easier to pass than previous. i’m not talking out my my arse, this is first hand what i’ve seen
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Emu Brigadier
Emu Brigadier@emubrigadier·
@satvikrsharma @Timberwolf_1 International students are effectively subsidizing the low-enrollment courses. Fewer international students = fewer such courses.
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@Quagslime junior ones yes, but i can’t see judges or people tolerating AI fully replacing a lawyer in court
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
if you’ve paid any attention to AI and robotics you’ll see that tradies being replaced is really only a matter of time. the only careers completely safe from disruption are those with artificial moats; lawyers, politicians, judges, police and so on
Jim Penman@Thejimpenman

Sociologists. Art historians. English literature majors. Australia subsidises billions of dollars worth of these degrees every year. We are short on plumbers, sparkies, carpenters, and small business owners. The government is funding the wrong workforce. The tradies are the ones AI cannot replace.

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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@orrdavid think there’s a setting you can use for Grok to do exactly this
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
I've been active on here 8 years. 36k tweets and replies. 4,500 per year. 12 per day.
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
Probably a good way to review past investment calls.
David Orr tweet mediaDavid Orr tweet media
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Sol Invictus
Sol Invictus@SolInvi24645112·
@parrapower2022 I find some of the conversation around it tedious, but there are very good reasons why a society should subsidise education. Also your about 75 basis points off the mean mortgage rate
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one shitty deal
one shitty deal@Timberwolf_1·
@mwfowlie out of every market i’ve seen on there this one has made me giggle the most
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Tuklasin

@Larryjamieson_ @GaryMarcus @LeeRespecter @ArguableM @db_econ @TheKouk @plesbilongmi @michaelsnape