ogle

I'm very honored (and surprised 🙃) to be included in the coindesk #mostinfluential2023 list this year! I'm not so sure I deserve it, but I sure do appreciate it 🙏

@blknoiz06 for those asking what "lighter" is, it's $lit over at lighter.xyz (or trade it on robinhood, or hyperliquid)

lighter ripping

$42M $LIT burned and sent to the absolutely, unarguable 0x00 burn address. The community asked, the team delivered. Burn baby burn 🔥. Good speed, Lighter

Lighter will capture all that volume. people don't realise but robinhood x lighter could be biggest partnership we have had in crypto. this itself makes $LIT a blue chip token

Today we will be burning ~15.5M LIT, which is the amount of tokens programmatically bought back through the end of Q2 2026. We will post the Ethereum transaction hash once completed.

PSA: 10% of Robinhood's net protocol revenue goes to @arbitrum DAO not many people have realized this yet - ethereum:0xb50721bcf8d664c30412cfbc6cf7a15145234ad1

@blknoiz06 spot $ansem on @Lighter_xyz soon?

$ANSEM spot live on hyperliquid 🥳🥳 app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ANSEM/US… huge fan of the unit/tradexyz team, have executed at an insane pace the last year first with spot markets on hyperliquid & then perps on other assets like stocks & commodities looking forward to working together

@ajey_eth What would keep it from beating HL in the end?

Lighter is still much smaller than Hyperliquid in terms of market cap. But over the long term, I think Lighter has the potential to reach at least half of Hyperliquid’s market cap. The biggest reason is execution cost. Lighter combines ultra-low latency with some of the lowest trading costs in the market. For example, if you place a $1M BTC trade, execution costs are roughly $203 on Lighter versus around $500 on Hyperliquid. And if you scale that to a $10M trade, execution costs are approximately $8.7K on Lighter compared to around $8.2K on Hyperliquid. When it comes to execution quality and pricing, most other perpetual DEXs aren’t even in the conversation. That’s it. Lighter 🕯️

@blknoiz06 Fr though you've gotta do the next launch on @americadotfun, your creator rewards would be over $5m by now

$1.4M in creator rewards in < 2 weeks

@iampaulgrewal @coinbase @brian_armstrong @Emilemc thanks a lot for your contributions to crypto Paul

After 6 years I’m leaving @Coinbase. I’ll be transitioning to an advisory role at the end of the month and continue my service on the Board of Coinbase National Trust Company. I will be a Coinbase ally for life and am grateful to @brian_armstrong, @emilemc and the Coinbase board for the opportunity of a lifetime. ⬇️

"This deal is 12 years in the making, or 25 years another way, because I went to high school with the Robinhood founder" Vlad on the personal history behind Lighter's Robinhood deal "I joked with the team, this deal is twelve years in the making, or twenty five years another way" "Because I went to high school with the Robinhood founder. We were the two lads at our school" "And twelve years ago, I was an early adviser to Robinhood"

Fun to be back on The Chopping Block! We discuss everything from how value accrues to LIT, our partnership with Robinhood, to whether I tweet too much. Only thing we didn’t get to was order book vs RFQ debate, and somehow Tarun and I are never in one place.

People often ask me "how are you so early to a trade, so you get inside info?" No, I just watch and read every public word that has to do with the thing I'm considering investing in. This episode is great, and has some alpha in it regarding $LIT @Lighter_xyz

@RealKhaylee depositions are so fun! The preps take forever and sometimes so do the deps and it's a constant battle. Coming into one knowing everything about your position (and ideally being in the "right" to begin with) makes the process so fun tbh

I love and hate prepping someone for a deposition. To make them understand how a deposition works, the first question I ask is, “Do you know what time it is?” Nearly every single time, the person will either check his or her watch, or look up at a clock. Then, they will say “Yes, it is 10:30.” At this point I just smile and shake my head. “No.” Then, I explain why their answer is wrong: I asked if they knew the time. Not what time it was currently. Me: “So what would your answer be then?” Witness: “Yes.” Me: “Wrong.” They didn’t know the time, because they had to look at a watch or clock. If you are ever deposed and do not have a bitch like me prepping you, remember this key: Listen to the question and answer only what is asked. And only what you actually know or recall. No charge for this advice.

@shaundadevens The picture was out of date when posted by a factor of 2, and is more so now. OI and volumes are growing - indeed, let's see where it goes, but at least post factual data.

Despite the success of Robinhood Chain, Lighter's instance has achieved only $559K in open interest. There are pros and cons to Lighter's partner integration strategy, but fragmenting liquidity across chains is never ideal. Let's see how it plays out.

@jacobagi @wolfofshelby "things gap up when there are more buyers than sellers" ... yes, I agree but under no circumstance will it take "modest" amounts of inflows to take a token from a $64 billion fdv to $325 billion bud

@cryptogle @wolfofshelby "amount of capital" is a fallacy. Things gap up not because 100s of billions pour in, but because there are no sellers of the token at lower prices... so you need relatively modest amounts of inflows coupled with a reduction in outflows.

is $350 $hype more likely, or is $12 $lit? both are 5x from here. one seems far more likely, faster (lighter) this is how you should think of where to put your cash, imo - not which is your "favorite" or which one's tribe you like best

Lighterliquid

it’s really that simple.

@Slick_stanley imo they're both pretty well protected from significant downside (75%+), but the risk remains of course I usually calculate potential upside vs potential downside (r/r) based on my own analysis. In this case it is very significantly positively weighed toward $LIT

@cryptogle How about downside risk?

my honest view: lighter can do bigger % upside than hyperliquid, but only if it proves it can become distribution-first, not just another perp dex. right now the setup is actually interesting: → ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 is around $2.4–$2.5 → circulating market cap is around $600m → FDV is around $2.45b → lighter is already doing around $1.35b perp volume/day and $40b+ perp volume in 30d → protocol revenue annualized is around $72m, with trading fee revenue flowing into buybacks / holders revenue mechanics. that means lighter is not just “narrative.” it already has real volume, real fees, real revenue, and a buyback loop. my prediction framework hyperliquid:native at $70 doing a 5x means $350 hype. that puts hyperliquid in a monster valuation zone. not impossible, but it needs to become the onchain binance for perps. for lighter, because the starting market cap is much smaller, the upside can be more violent. at current ~$2.4: → base case: $6–$8 that’s just reclaiming / slightly pushing above its previous ATH of $7.86. this is very possible if volumes keep growing and market sentiment improves. → bull case: $15–$25 this happens if lighter becomes the clear #2 perp dex after hyperliquid, gets stronger liquidity, better markets, better mobile UX, and keeps growing through Robinhood / Telegram-style distribution. Robinhood said eligible users can access Lighter perps inside Robinhood Wallet, and Wallet in Telegram also launched perps via Lighter. → crazy cycle case: $40–$60 this is where lighter starts getting priced as a serious onchain exchange, not just a token. at $50, LIT would be around $12.5b circulating market cap and $50b FDV if total supply is 1b. Expensive, but not insane if the market starts valuing perp dexes like the future of crypto trading. → mania case: $80–$100+ possible only in full bull mania + hyperliquid going much higher + lighter becoming the robinhood/telegram-native perp layer. this is not my base case, but crypto does stupid things when revenue, distribution, and narrative line up. my personal target i would not be shocked to see LIT at $20–$30 in a strong cycle. that’s roughly 8x–12x from $2.40. the “how crazy can it go” number is $50+, but for that lighter needs to prove it is not just following hyperliquid. it needs its own lane. what lighter needs to do: → keep volume growing from $1b/day toward $5b–$10b/day → improve liquidity so big traders can enter without bad slippage → add more markets: crypto, stocks, commodities, forex-style perps → make Robinhood Wallet / Telegram trading feel stupidly simple → keep buybacks strong and transparent → avoid ugly token unlock pressure → become the easiest perp dex for normal users, not just crypto degens the big bet is simple: hyperliquid is the onchain binance for pro traders. lighter can become the onchain robinhood for perps. that second market can be massive. so my clean prediction: hype: $70 → $350 = 5x lit: $2.40 → $20–$30 = 8x–12x bull case lit crazy case: $50+ if distribution really hits not financial advice, but from a pure risk/reward angle, lighter has more upside because it is starting from a much smaller base. *views are personal*

@stutireal @krakenfx one of the top 3 reasons I'm glad I flew across the universe to effing Montenegro for Zuzalu was that we met and became friends. Good luck on your next adventure Stuti

Some personal news: after ~4 years, I’m saying goodbye to the @krakenfx family and Triton Capital. I joined Kraken Ventures in 2022 because I believed blockchain is better infrastructure for financial services. Four years later, I believe it more… and somewhere along the way, the thesis grew: in tandem, AI will also remake money movement just as completely. I backed teams like @ethena, @Morpho, @monad and Smart Bricks, and contributed to the early conception of Ink, Kraken’s L2. I relentlessly educated on and pitched stablecoins (should I bring back “Stablecoin Stuti”?) Thank you to my current and former colleagues at Kraken and Triton for this opportunity, and above all to the founders who let me into their corner. I’m staying in San Francisco, and I’m not slowing down. More soon - in the meantime, founders my DMs are still open to you!