Gerard Perry 🐑 🦁 👑

Happy 100th birthday to The People's Ebert

Iran 🇮🇷 just released this emotional video I don’t think they are stopping until all their objectives have been met

Actually holding onto land up the Litani river is absolutely an insane idea though, that won’t achieve more than a short military campaign with the risk of undermining Lebanese opposition to Hezbelloh.

Everyone is focused on Kharg Island. The one that very much matters right now is Larak Island. IRGC naval bases, port infrastructure, and control over ship screening. It functions as a choke point, effectively a toll booth and targeting hub inside the Strait.

Holy shit, Iran just released this video! What are we supposed to think about this?

Reportedly images of Iranian soldiers waiting on Kharg Island in the Strait of Hormuz with FPV drones in preparation for a potential U.S. ground operation on the island.

One advantage the Iranians have is that their entire elite seems to consist of 130 IQ polymath combat veterans with PhDs who stormed across minefields with fixed bayonets surrounded by poison gas back in the day and then spent 30 years studying philosophy, game theory, engineering and military science. Average decision-maker quality appears to be dramatically higher than elsewhere, especially qualified for shit-hits-the-fan situations

Israel has invaded and is illegally occupying southern Lebanon. That’s how it should be reported.

The Israeli military says it has killed at least 700 Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon since hostilities escalated amid the war with Iran. They include hundreds of members of the terror group's elite Radwan Force. Lebanon's health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed over 1,000 since the war began.

🚨JUST IN: The 14-point document that was given to Iran: 📌 Dismantling of existing nuclear capabilities that have already been accumulated 📌A commitment that Iran will never strive to obtain nuclear weapons 📌No material will be enriched on Iranian soil 📌All enriched material will be delivered to the IAEA on a short schedule to be defined between the parties 📌Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow will be decommissioned—destroyed. 📌The IAEA will be exposed to all information within Iran 📌 Iran will abandon the proxy paradigm 📌 It will effectively stop financing and arming the proxies in the region 📌The Strait of Hormuz will remain open and will be a free maritime zone—and no one will block it 📌The missile project: There will be a decision later, but they will have to limit the number and range 📌Future use of small-range missiles: only for self-defense purposes 📌All sanctions lifted on Iran 📌They will be assisted in promoting and developing a civilian nuclear project in Bushehr (electricity generation) 📌The threat of snapback will be removed

I don’t think the regime will ever surrender outright. But it’ll soon be unable to function even to the extent it does—especially as the summer heat will strain the water supply in Iran. One of the things we should’ve learned over the last two decades: while relatively primitive terror groups like Hamas can survive and regenerate, it’s a lot more difficult to rebuild a semi-modern state, or even a terrorist army like Hezbollah. The skillset required to replace a warlord is a lot different from that which replaces a general, a bureaucrat or an engineer. And, of course, more complex states and groups are that much more vulnerable to Israeli technological superiority and intelligence. There’s a fog of war happening now—all we see are what remains of the regime that’s still functioning: some missile launchers, a small cadre of leadership to talk to the press. As the missiles run out, we’ll start to see a lot more of the chaos that’s happening over there.