Lance Uppercut

3.2K posts

Lance Uppercut

Lance Uppercut

@LanceupperPI

I gamble on politics and events. DMs open if you want to discuss markets.

شامل ہوئے Mart 2020
2.6K فالونگ3.2K فالوورز
Tim Duy
Tim Duy@TimDuy·
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how much damage Trump has already done to the @federalreserve.
Tim Duy tweet media
English
1
10
84
9.3K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
Have never seen an FOMC market at 99.8/99.9 on the day of the decision before.
Lance Uppercut tweet media
English
3
0
23
3.5K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
@metzgov @ChrisMurphyCT @RepCasar Ban wagering on the Academy Awards, where the volume and action is shaped by reviews, campaigning, and other awards shows long before votes get submitted ... aight. High IQ stuff from Murphy as usual
English
0
0
5
427
bryan metzger
bryan metzger@metzgov·
Sen. @ChrisMurphyCT and @RepCasar are intro'ing the "BETS OFF Act." The bill would ban prediction market trading on: - terrorism/assassination/war - non-financial government actions - events where insiders know or control the outcome, like the Oscars or Super Bowl halftime show
bryan metzger tweet mediabryan metzger tweet media
English
5
36
200
41.2K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
@manniefabian There seems to be an issue budding here among Israel-based gamblers here between the constant use of military secrets to profit on markets and now threatening to murder journalists to change markets.
English
1
0
6
1.3K
Lance Uppercut ری ٹویٹ کیا
Neal Kumar
Neal Kumar@HereComesKumar·
This morning we sued Michigan in federal court. Prediction markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, and states like NV, MI, & MA can't evade federal jurisdiction by running to state courts — particularly when these same issues are already before multiple federal courts. Polymarket continues to welcome discussion with regulators, and we appreciate the thoughtful engagement with other states. We fight for the users.
English
40
32
289
184.5K
Adam Carlson
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn·
Y’all (yes I am co-opting it for tonight) we are not gonna get a good sense of who’s favored until Harris, Dallas, Travis, and Bexar drop. That’s likely like half of the entire electorate. Patience.
English
8
9
190
21K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
@ShadowyZephyr My guess is that there are no other noms this week after the big dump today so has to be lower than where we have started the week. Time decay will reprice it for me
English
1
0
0
427
zephyr
zephyr@ShadowyZephyr·
@LanceupperPI what's your FV on this? i haven't been following the Powell stuff
English
1
0
0
469
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
Warshie Warshies Locked In Their Cagies
Lance Uppercut tweet mediaLance Uppercut tweet media
English
1
0
14
10.2K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
@liz_elkind Liz, they are voting again on a bill they already passed? Or is this something else than HR 7147?
English
0
0
0
267
Liz Elkind
Liz Elkind@liz_elkind·
NEWS: Speaker Johnson tells House Republicans on call that DHS funding bill will get a vote in House AGAIN this week, per sources
English
2
6
9
4.2K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
@mr_peanutbettor Time is different because death can be an impetus for receiving the award. But the others I wonder what they would do. I doubt there would be any consistency at all to how things are applied.
English
0
0
1
211
Peanut Bettor
Peanut Bettor@mr_peanutbettor·
Seems like "determined by death" is a very unclear standard moving forward. If you bet someone time person of year and they die, is that determined by death? NBA MVP? What about Elon Musk tweets this month?
English
7
2
22
3.8K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
How did they find the middle path to make everyone angry instead of one side? Did everyone waste their time and energy after 2AM trading and monitoring this market while they featured it on the homepage and made it 'LIVE'? This answer doesn't feel satisfactory at all.
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

English
9
4
139
10.4K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
People are owed more than just 'their basis' here; several markets were moved by people freeing up shares to accumulate a position here. Like Fed Chair would be at 92c without this market; people paid fees there and took losses to bid on that market.
English
5
3
50
8.8K
Lance Uppercut
Lance Uppercut@LanceupperPI·
Not for nothing but this goes farther than just getting your basis back, people sacrificed time and opportunities elsewhere to put money here and still can't trade right now if they're fully tied in. Why didn't you just lock the market instead of doing 2x clarifications?
English
2
1
31
1.4K