Daniel Levite

1.2K posts

Daniel Levite

Daniel Levite

@LeviteDaniel

A follower of Jesus Christ; A husband of one wife; A father of 3; A grandfather of 8 and great grandfather of 2.

Indiana شامل ہوئے Nisan 2012
173 فالونگ82 فالوورز
Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@RoKhanna Please resign, clearly you have never read either the Constitution or the Geneva Conventions. You are clearly incompetent and are not capable of leading.
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Ro Khanna
Ro Khanna@RoKhanna·
We need to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump. Threatening war crimes is a blatant violation of our constitution and the Geneva Conventions.
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@WhiteHouse @GOP @FLOTUS @POTUS This is the same guy who posted ‘Praise Allah’ earlier today and is planning to put a giant golden statue of himself in his Presidential library. It is so stupid I have been laughing since I heard it.
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The White House
The White House@WhiteHouse·
✝️"Melania and I would like to wish everyone a very Happy Easter! Whether you are heading out to Church or, watching Service from home, may this day be full of Peace and Joy for all who celebrate the Resurrection of Jesus Christ. HE IS RISEN!!" –President Donald J. Trump
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Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW
Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW@Giovann35084111·
🧵 THREAD: We just proved Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle is a fundamental eigenmode of the system Using eigenvalue decomposition (SSA + DMD), we discovered something remarkable about Bitcoin's price dynamics. Let me explain what we did and why it matters... 1/ What are eigenvectors? Think of Bitcoin price as a complex signal - like a symphony with multiple instruments playing at once. Eigenvectors are the "fundamental notes" that compose this symphony. Each eigenvector captures a distinct pattern in the data, ranked by importance. 2/ How we found them: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) We worked in LOG SPACE (critical!) because Bitcoin spans 6 orders of magnitude ($0.05 → $125k). We created a "trajectory matrix" from the price history and decomposed it using SVD (Singular Value Decomposition). Think of it as separating the signal into layers. 3/ What we discovered: Eigenvector 1: 98.70% of variance→ This IS the power law: Price ∝ t^5.7 → The fundamental attractor of the system → Bitcoin's "base note" Eigenvectors 2-6: 1.29% of variance→ Oscillations around the trend → This is where the magic happens... 4/ Then we applied Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) DMD extracts the "Koopman eigenvalues" - these tell us the frequencies and growth rates of oscillations. We found: Short cycles: 15-30 days (market microstructure) MODES 5-6: Period = 1,530 days = 4.19 YEARS The halving cycle! 5/ Why this matters: The 4-year cycle isn't just a coincidence or narrative - it's a fundamental eigenmode of Bitcoin's dynamics. Eigenvalue |λ| = 0.9985 (slightly decaying, stable oscillation). It exists as a persistent oscillation in log-space around the power law attractor. 6/ The physics: This is exactly what renormalization group theory predicts for complex systems: A power law fixed point (dominant eigenvalue) Log-periodic oscillations (subdominant eigenvalues) Stable, bounded dynamics (all |λ| ≈ 1) Bitcoin behaves like a critical system near a phase transition. 7/ Why log space was critical: In LINEAR space: 4-year cycle INVISIBLE (buried in noise) In LOG space: 4-year cycle CLEAR (eigenmode 5-6) Why? Halvings affect price MULTIPLICATIVELY (% changes), not additively. Log space reveals the true geometry of the dynamics. 8/ Reconstruction: Blue line = Eigenvector 1 + Eigenvectors 2-6 Red line = Power law fit R² = 0.9678 (better than raw data!) We reconstructed Bitcoin's full price dynamics from just 6 eigenvectors. The math works. The physics checks out. 9/ Bottom line: The Bitcoin power law isn't just a trend line. The 4-year cycle isn't just protocol mechanics. They're fundamental eigenmodes of a complex dynamical system - proven through eigenvalue decomposition. This is physics, not hopium. TL;DR: Decomposed BTC price into eigenvectors (SSA) Found power law = dominant eigenmode (98.7%) Found 4-year halving = oscillatory eigenmode (DMD) Reconstructed full dynamics from 6 components Log space was key Math + physics confirm: Bitcoin is a critical system
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Henrik Zeberg
Henrik Zeberg@HenrikZeberg·
I’m certain few nations have taken notes on how to strike a US carrier. How damaging has this intelligence been to the general deterence in say South/East China Seas? That a previously perceived undefeatable military asset - may actually be defeatable? Can be overwhelmed by swarms of drones - and missiles… Some laundry fire btw!
GBX@GBX_Press

The USS Gerald Ford, one of the largest U.S. aircraft carriers, will be out of service for two years after being struck by Iran. It’s definitely not a fire in the laundry room...

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Eyal Yakoby
Eyal Yakoby@EYakoby·
BREAKING: In NYC at the “No Kings” rally, demonstrators waved Communist flags. No kings, but yes Communist dictators.
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@tedcruz Sorry you are not paying attention. Sharia law is being observed all over the country with NO political opposition or campaign to resist it.
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Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz@tedcruz·
Let me be very, very clear. Sharia Law will never be allowed in Texas or the United States of America.
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@SpeakerJohnson I judge the seriousness of your claim by watching the @GOP national campaign encouraging voters to leave and fight the leadership of the Democratic Party. So far nothing… none of the campaign messaging in my area even acknowledge the Democratic Party much less condemn them.
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Speaker Mike Johnson
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnson·
The root of this entire Democrat shutdown is a demand to reopen the border and to protect criminal illegal aliens.   Democrats prioritize murderous illegal aliens over American citizens. Look at their actions, their words, and their votes.
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@Giovann35084111 I need more help in understanding how to use this information and how to read the charts. Thanks for the work.
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Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW
Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW@Giovann35084111·
3 methods to calculate the log-periodic spectrum of the residuals of the power law. Strong peak near the main harmonic and 2nd and 3rd harmonic have strong presence too. These are real signals.
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Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW
Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW@Giovann35084111·
I had the intuition several years ago that bubbles might be an intrinsic property of the power law itself. One of my first attempts to model them was through a log-periodic framework—I knew it was connected to power laws, but I hadn’t explored that connection deeply enough at the time. @moneyordebt later revived this line of thinking and pushed the log-periodic approach further. Recently, I finally had the time to sit down and work through the connection more carefully. If the hypothesis is correct—that bubbles are log-periodic—then both the long-term trend and the oscillatory bubble behavior can be unified within a single framework: a power law with a complex exponent. The math is in the comments, but the result is truly elegant.
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InvestAnswers
InvestAnswers@Investanswers·
@realMaalouf I hope this doesn't offend anybody, but this type of shit is beyond evil
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Dr. Maalouf ‏
Dr. Maalouf ‏@realMaalouf·
The Taliban no longer allows Afghan women to see with both eyes. They already required women to cover their entire bodies, leaving only their eyes visible underneath the burqa. But now even that is being restricted. Women are now only allowed to see with one eye! Eid Mubarak!
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@SpeakerJohnson @DHSgov And the @GOP is sitting on the sidelines complaining, and lamenting but doing nothing. No national campaign condemning the Democratic Party leadership, no killing the filibuster and getting the needed laws passed. Just nothing!
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Speaker Mike Johnson
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnson·
Democrats are intentionally creating chaos for American travelers and blocking paychecks for TSA agents so they can reopen the border. Their political games must stop. Fund @DHSgov.
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David max
David max@razib_ul47671·
Everyone’s hyped about Claude… but very few people know how to actually use it to replace real work. I’ve compiled 700+ powerful prompts that turn Claude into a serious productivity machine—for writing, research, business, marketing, coding, and more. If you want them all: 1. Like this post 2. Comment “AI” I’ll DM you the full prompt library. 🚀
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@Giovann35084111 Do any of your indicators show this green line or is this a new calculation?
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Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW
Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW@Giovann35084111·
A 200-week window is essentially a four-year average. When you smooth Bitcoin’s price over that horizon, what emerges is very close to the floor defined by the power law. So why do people use this approximation of the underlying behavior? In many cases, it’s because they don’t want to explicitly acknowledge the power law. The 200-week average feels safer—more familiar and less committal. But that clean, stable signal would not exist unless there were a real regularity in Bitcoin’s price dynamics. The average is not the phenomenon—it is a reflection of it. It is simply a low-resolution projection of the deeper, scale-invariant structure that governs Bitcoin’s long-term evolution. Green straight line or wiggly blue line?
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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@Giovann35084111 Super I look forward to reading your math and scientific observations that prove that. When are you planning for this release.
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Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW
Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW@Giovann35084111·
My next book is entitled: The Purposeful Universe Finding Meaning in a Meaningless Universe The book chapters are below:
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mNAV.com
mNAV.com@BitcoinPowerLaw·
This is coming together nicely (thanks to Claude and ChatGPT). Who wants a copy of our time-weighted quantile power law TradingView overlay when it's done?
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Following #Bitcoin@CryptoProphet15

@BitcoinPowerLaw @grok Is there a trading view script or a website we can see this in

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Daniel Levite
Daniel Levite@LeviteDaniel·
@moneyordebt So are you still thinking the next top is in the second half of 2027?
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moneyordebt ∞/21M
moneyordebt ∞/21M@moneyordebt·
It’s a log periodic structure as befits the discrete scale invariance expected for a continuous scale invariant (power law adhering) monetary network. The graph is the log price residuals after subtracting the power law. No 4 year cycles. Fundamental and subharmonic modes dominate and some small contribution from other harmonics. The spacing is in logarithmic time with a ratio of 2.07 determined via Fourier analysis of the residuals and confirmed by wavelet analysis. A complete treatment includes phase which is stable over time for the fundamental. @Fidelity Personal note: they couldn’t support some of my accounts after I moved overseas because of the 86 years old Investment Company Act of 1940. So more went into third millennial monetary technology under my own direction.
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TFTC@TFTC21

Fidelity Digital Assets just published a research report arguing Bitcoin's classic four-year boom-bust cycle is over. Their core finding: Bitcoin's market cap hit $2.5 trillion at its October 2025 peak, but one-year realized volatility hit 17 new all-time lows in January 2026. That's never happened this soon after new price highs in any prior cycle. The demand structure has fundamentally shifted. Public companies and spot ETFs now hold nearly 12% of circulating supply, with most of that accumulation happening post-2023. 49 public companies each hold over 1,000 BTC. The leading ETF hit $75 billion AUM in under two years. GLD took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. On-chain, MVRV has stayed around 2x realized cap through this entire bull market. In 2013 it hit 6x. In 2017 and 2021 it hit 4x. If it reached just 4x this cycle, that implies a $4.5 trillion market cap and roughly $225,000 per BTC. Fidelity also created a new metric, the "Profit to Volatility Ratio," which has stayed above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained stable period in Bitcoin's history. Even the February 2026 drop below $70,000 didn't break it. The implication: the 80% drawdowns and blow-off tops may be a thing of the past. What replaces them is a slower grind higher with shallower pullbacks. Bitcoin is behaving less like a speculative bet and more like a maturing macro asset.

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Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW
Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW@Giovann35084111·
The Physics of Bitcoin book will have several "Math Boxes" as the one below. This will allow the reader that needs a refresher of math to catch up and go a little deeper in his understanding of the ideas behind the power law. The book is out for pre-order. Order your copy now. It is a special pre-order price. Link to the book in the comments. Why the power law looks like a straight line in a log-log graph?
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