Probability Exchange

@radarmentions @benwfreeman1 @electionsjoe that's why you shouldn't trust them imo.

@benwfreeman1 @electionsjoe why is it not illegal for campaigns to fund polls. this sucks lol.

WHAT? New poll shows Talarico doing better against Cornyn than Paxton?!!!!

@I4NFTS @canyoubelieve22 Over 1,000,000 people died from COVID that didn't have to. Hardly fine.

@canyoubelieve22 But he had a first term and it was fine. So it was hard to believe people like you

This Trump presidency may go down in history as the worst ever Could potentially enter us into the most unaffordable period of our lives alongside a significant war Maybe an 80 year old narcissist as president was a bad idea after all, but in our defense we didn’t really have another option

@GregAbbott_TX Now do Trump.

The state of Texas will not observe the Cesar Chavez Day holiday. I am directing all Texas state agency heads to comply. In the upcoming legislative session, I will work with Texas lawmakers to remove Cesar Chavez Day from state law altogether. Reports of the horrific and widely acknowledged sexual assault allegations against Cesar Chavez rightfully dismantle the myth of this progressive hero and undermine the narrative that elevated Chavez as a figure worthy of official state celebration.

@GingerChin @Delfo_Sensor @coleslawless @lisachristinect Yeah tell that to the Russians and their 3 day military operation.

@Delfo_Sensor @coleslawless @lisachristinect 1. A 4 week military operation does not constitute a war 2. See Chart for Inflation Rates 3. Gas prices will go down 4. The largest state sponsor of terror is being obliterated 5. See link for US Trade wins. cfr.org/articles/track… You have no substance at all do you?

I supported Trump in 2016. I supported Trump in 2020. I supported Trump in 2024. Less than a year into his second term I took a step back, reflected, and began questioning his leadership and character. No, I don’t wish Kamala was in office. No, I don’t support the democratic party. I have never trusted our government, regardless of what party was in charge. I have always believed that we should question everything because the entirety of our system and its history is corrupt. If you can still support this administration after following the money and witnessing what is happening in real time, you are actually retarded. If you are supporting this administration and blatantly ignoring what is going on, you are also retarded.

@benwfreeman1 What did Krishnamoorthi do to get himself primaried out of a job? I haven't been following this race. He used to follow me on my personal X account some years back.

In hindsight, you can craft stories in your head about how this was obvious. I’m still pretty surprised at Stratton’s performance here. I do think I should have seen this coming, though. I’m going to dig into the reasons why I think she won.

@Jimomics @ImMeme0 Like what Trump has been doing his whole life.

@ImMeme0 Sounds like fraud.

🚨BREAKING: TikToker who pretended to be a Trump supporter now claims he scammed MAGA supporters out of $30K. The man, who portrayed himself as a Trump supporter from 2024 until last week, frequently shared emotional stories about personal tragedies and often asked MAGA followers for help. He has now released a video mocking MAGA supporters, Charlie Kirk, and President Donald Trump.

@TomJChicago It's breathtaking how incompetent this Administration is. Top to bottom.

This is an unacceptable level of incompetence. Trump has no idea what he doing. As long as he remains in office, the Iran war will be a loss for the U.S. His toxic mix of miscalculations, thin skin, stupidity, lack of preparation, poor judgement and inability to work with allies did this.

@DivineRickee @RobertJMolnar He will be politically very weak. That's when they'll drop the hammer on him. I don't think they will make the same mistake a 3rd time.

@ProbabilityEx @RobertJMolnar that's when it will be when we have the sheer numbers!

So, only need 3 Republicans to join with Democrats to impeach Trump in the House, given the current makeup of the House "If all 214 Democrats vote yes and the 3 vacancies stay empty, they'd need at least 3 Republicans (or independents caucusing with them) to flip for 217" Massie is a definite 1.... who would be the other 2....clearly would be "moderates" in swing districts.....or announced retiring Reps ideas?

@jimstewartson Oh my God that last sentence was so appropriate.

Donald Trump told the story of how he decided on the war, which was that stock prices were so high he could afford to attack Iran. To get advice on the decision he asked Susie Wiles. Now you know why they had no clue the Strait of Hormuz would shut down. Try to read it. “We're doing great. I went to Susie my beautiful Susie Wiles. There's nobody like Susie. I went to Susie. Right? And everybody's with her and she's a great woman really she's a great woman. But I went to Susie. I always go to Susie. I said Susie do you mind if I take a little excursion here? Do you mind if I you know we're hitting all these records, right? Most more people are working in the United States today than ever before as I can name this I don't want to bore you Because this is all about Ireland but you're a big part of it because you're a big part of this country but I said do you mind if I take a little excursion my chief of staff because I want to do this. I have Marco here. We have a lot of our great people JD is here. They're all here and I say let's let's do this. We're gonna do it right should have been done by many presidents should have been done Long before 47 years. It's 40 years of living in terror You know, they're they're called the bully of the Middle East But they're really the bully of the world because he used oil to bribe right? He used oil to bribe and to you know gain power. I don't know what they gained. What are they gained? What the hell? How are they doing? Not so good. They're all gone now. Every one of them. They're all gone. We don't even know who to our biggest problem. We don't know who to deal with over here. I can call the speaker of the house He's so powerful. I can call him. I can make a deal maybe I can even call your Democrat counterpart this guy. I said to Kelly. What do you think of your counterpart? He said he's a great guy. This is Republican Democrat. I never thought I was gonna hear that about you. Let me shake your hand. When Kelly when Kelly tells me that I said that's the way it used to be You know, that's the way it not so long ago and maybe someday that's the way it'll be again. It's really great. But I said you mind of I take a little excursion Because we have to do something and it'll be a short term excursion? But we have all these great things going and we had to say you know, we could have. What could have gone up up? It was only going in one direction. But I think now it's gonna go much higher than it would have gone had we not taken this little journey. And so I appreciate all of the people that have worked with us I was not an easy decision to make we have a country that was hotter than any country anywhere in the world and Doing great in every way and I say oh, we have to put out this this cancer. It's a cancer We had to take that operation and we did and it was very successful and continues frankly as somebody said very they could leave today. And it would take ten years to rebuild the damage has been done. But I think we have to make it a little bit more permanent because no other president has to go through this and we shouldn't have any other President having to go through this kind of a thing and If they didn't want to do it if for some reason they didn't want to do it. Would have the same problem. We don't ever want to have that problem again Not with lunatics. We can't have lunatics controlling nuclear weaponry. So I just want to thank everybody.”

@jimstewartson Holy shit. I thought this was a put on until I watched the clip. What are we doing?

@tommysantos14 We need to make sure a maniac can ever get as far as Trump has managed to get. I imagine our allies will insist on it if they're ever to trust us again.

When Trump leaves office: The Department of War will go back to being the Defense Department. The Trump Kennedy Center will go back to being the Kennedy Center. The Gulf of America will once again be the Gulf of Mexico. The unfinished East Wing (it won't be finished by the end of Trump's term) will be rebuilt by the next president, and it will not be a ballroom. Federal agencies packed with unqualified loyalists will fire those people and rehire the career experts Trump fired. The Department of Justice will go back to enforcing the law instead of protecting the president. Scientific agencies like NOAA, the EPA, and the CDC will go back to publishing research without political interference. The U.S. will re-align with its allies and not with its enemies. The presidential pardon power will stop being used as a rewards program for loyalists. Inspectors General will go back to investigating corruption instead of getting fired for it. The White House press room will go back to having briefings, with real journalists and not podcasters. U.S. foreign policy will stop revolving around flattering dictators. And the world will progress as though Donald Trump never existed.

@PressSec You lie like a rug.

There are many false claims in this letter but let me address one specifically: that "Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation."   This is the same false claim that Democrats and some in the liberal media have been repeating over and over.   As President Trump has clearly and explicitly stated, he had strong and compelling evidence that Iran was going to attack the United States first.   This evidence was compiled from many sources and factors. President Trump would never make the decision to deploy military assets against a foreign adversary in a vacuum.   Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. The Iranian regime is evil. It proudly killed Americans, waged war against our country, and openly threatened us all the way up to the launch of Operation Epic Fury.   Iran was aggressively expanding their short-range ballistic missiles to combine with their naval assets to give themselves immunity – meaning they would have a degree of a capabilities that would give them immunity to hold us and the rest of the world hostage.   The regime aimed to use those ballistic missiles as a shield to continue achieving their ultimate goal – nuclear weapons.   The President, through his top negotiators, gave the regime every single possible opportunity to abandon this unacceptable course by permanently giving up their nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief, free nuclear fuel, and potential economic partnerships with our country.   But they would not say yes to peace because obtaining nuclear weapons was their fundamental goal.   President Trump ultimately made the determination that a joint attack with Israel would greatly reduce the risk to American lives that would come from a first strike by the terrorist Iranian regime and address this imminent threat to America’s national security interests.   All of this led to President Trump arriving at the determination that this military operation was necessary for U.S. national security, which is why he launched the massively successful Operation Epic Fury. The Commander-in-Chief determines what does and does not constitute a threat, because he is the one constitutionally empowered to do so - and because the American people went to the ballot box and entrusted him and him alone to make such final judgments. And finally, the absurd allegation that President Trump made this decision based on the influence of others, even foreign countries, is both insulting and laughable. President Trump has been remarkably consistent and has said for DECADES that Iran can NEVER possess a nuclear weapon. As someone who actually witnesses President Trump’s decision-making process on a daily basis, I can attest to the fact that he is always looking to do what’s in the best interest of the United States of America — period. America First.

@ZhouJaron Exactly, he was probably talking to himself in the mirror. Wouldn't put it past him.

Right… but what about the person who was president from 2017 to 2021?

@FactorOrigin @PaulKehoe_1971 @rshereme Haha, he didn't think Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz even though his generals told him it was a strong possibility. Now he's all but begging other countries to come to the US's aid. They're rightfully refusing.

I think we are closer than most people on X believe. There’s an incredibly strong propaganda campaign being led by the left media outlets here that want to see Trump and this administration fail obviously because they want the Democratic Party to gain power in the midterms. Also Iran is running propaganda campaigns to make Americans put pressure on their govt to stop the war because of how desperate they are they have no other options. I’m optimistic this will be successful. Phase 1✅: They have already decapitated all leadership and continue to do so. Phase 2: Remove all missle installations. This is where we are right now and doing so successfully. Phase 3: Once the regimes leaders are destroyed, their weapons systems eliminated, give the people of Iran the means to topple a defenseless scrambling regime. Time will tell. People lack th understanding how important the control of energy will be in the near future. Getting rid of a terror state building a nuclear weapon that controls the flow of 1/4th of the flow of oil thru the world is a necessity to eliminate this regime for the security of America future and to exert influence over China and Russia.

I honestly cannot explain this. Before the strikes on Iran, Republican voters were overwhelmingly opposed to U.S. involvement in a conflict between Israel and Iran. A survey by YouGov and The Economist found that only 23% of Republicans supported U.S. military involvement, while 53% opposed it. However, attitudes shifted almost immediately after Trump ordered U.S. airstrikes on Iran. A survey conducted after Trump’s bombing campaign showed support climbing to 85% among Republicans. For me, this rapid reversal illustrates one thing — Trump has transformed the Republican Party into a cult, where people follow not principles, but a man.

@AesPolitics1 Same. The minute he got elected I knew it was going to get bad. So bad that I told my wife we should probably get to S America for a couple years.

Yes

@AesPolitics1 You underestimate how bad the GOP is hated right now.

I don’t think people understand how insane a 51% chance of retaking the Senate is. Democrats need to win in a row -North Carolina -Georgia -Maine -Michigan -Ohio -Alaska or Texas 51% is beyond fucking insane.

Told you. polymarket.com/?via=6x4FSaq

@elonmusk Who uses the word 'libtard' anymore? Do better.

Libtard with the bullhorn is more dangerous

@ZhouJaron @ForecasterEnten I'm convinced the Democrats are going to take back the Senate.

New from @ForecasterEnten: Democratic sweep odds have soared to 46%, up from 28% on Jan 1. Notably, Dems also have a 46% chance of just winning the Senate. Markets strongly indicating that if Dems win the Senate, they’ve also won the House (makes sense given they’d need to win pretty red states)