Diesel Dee

Rebranded — Diesel Dee now. Same trader, evolved focus. 70% macro/equities/commodities, 30% everything else. @TraderDeez

@SpartaFreight Physical premium near $150 says markets believe this isn't temporary. Agree.

Global crude stocks draining at 10m bpd in first 9 days of April. Physical oil fresh record near $150/bbl. IEA: demand destruction spreading, sharpest Q2 decline since COVID. Transatlantic diesel arbs open NY/Rotterdam at +$48/mt margin. Clean freight and diesel: firmly bullish.

Palladium long closed with small profit. Thesis held, but duration risk shifted. Discipline > conviction. Next. #asx $etpmpd

@SullyCNBC Selective blockade only holds if it's temporary. Stretch this past Q2 and enforcement costs spike, China steps in, and the whole premium narrative flips. That's the macro duration play.

Blockade will primarily impact Iran (and, thus, China) oil as much of Saudi and UAE oil now circumvents Hormuz via pipeline. Would be possible for military to know which ships are carrying oil from which countries, stopping some and letting others pass.

When the US blocks the Strait of Hormuz, you're not trading news—you're trading the duration of the blockade. Will it hold? Markets are pricing 30-60 days. I'm betting longer. That's the macro.

Eth setup looked good on paper. Chart didn't confirm. Passed. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't take.

$ETH consolidation box plays into Q2 macro — if it breaks with volume, classic measured move to $3.2k. But watch the trendline overhead resistance. Breakout = risk-on sentiment confirmation. Consolidation continues = caution on risk assets. $ETH levels matter more than headlines. 📊

3.3% CPI, energy driven. Real wages at 0.3%. Negative rates = commodities bid structural. Markets distracted by tech rally. Inflation's not going away.

Exactly 🎯

@LogWeaver Paper trades narratives. Physical markets trade scarcity. $146 North Sea + <10% Strait traffic = the actual bid. Ceasefire doesn't fix supply. This is why commodity shorts are dead.

🛢️ The market keeps trading the CEASEFIRE. The physical oil market is trading something very different. North Sea Forties crude just hit a record $146.43 a barrel, even after futures pulled back on truce headlines. That matters. Because paper markets can celebrate peace in a day. Physical markets cannot fake tight supply. If real barrels are still pricing like this, then the energy shock is NOT over. It has just changed form. Brent also settled around $95.92, while Reuters reports traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still running at less than 10% of normal levels. The message is simple: 📈 Headlines may calm sentiment. ⚠️ Supply stress is still VERY real. The market may be moving on. Oil is not. Is the market still underestimating how sticky this oil risk really is?

Oil $100 again. Ceasefire was noise. Growth soft, inflation high. Energy bid structural, not cyclical. 📊

@icooperTrades The break confirms it. Real rates negative, CBs buying, supply tight. Platinum had to go through $2000. Next levels look achievable.

#Platinum up 6% today and finally managing to push above $2000. It must still confirm the move but if it does, $2210 is next resistance (minor level) and then $2410. If it does get to the top of the parallel at $2700 that's my first area I would short. Below, if it drops back, 1700 remains my buy level. #preciousmetals #trading

@Mark4XX Who would've thought? 24-hour peace trade was never the thesis. Real rates negative, CBs buying, volatility picking up. Back to what actually matters...

It's official—the ceasefire is in the trash

@hajiyev_rashad Gold holding $4.7k despite ceasefire rally shows what's really driving it: CB buying + sticky inflation, not geopolitical fear. Miners telling the story. Real rates still underwater.

Spot gold goes above $4.7k. Senior gold miners gains 1.3%. Suddenly…

Ceasefire = oil relief. Inflation still sticky. Fed on hold 2027. The narrative changed; the structure didn't. #asx

@Tom__Capital Exactly. I'm doing the same but holding long metals — CBs buying, supply constraints real, macro deteriorating. Not fighting the charts, just patient on the thesis. You're right; dips still being bought means we're not panicked yet. Noise will clear, fundamentals win.

The US/Iran conflict has turned the market into a playground for algos and propaganda headlines I’ve intentionally stepped back,fewer charts, less noise. This isn't an environment for "high confidence" risk. I’ve moved primarily to the sidelines, taking smaller sizes and spending less time in the market until the volatility settles. Fundamentals always win in the end, even if they’re currently ignored. The macro is deteriorating daily, especially for nations with heavy energy dependence or pre-existing high inflation Critically, I don’t think the market is "scared" yet. Dips are still being bought. This isn't like last April’s total flush and V-recovery. We lack the "short fuel" for a sustainable rebound right now. On the LTF, like everyone else, believe a truce announcement would spark an equities and crypto rally, while the USD and Oil would fall. However, my HTF Roadmap remains unchanged: Shorts: $AUDUSD, $EURUSD Longs: Energy & Defense (Hedges for persistent inflation and energy supply shocks) Long Gold: Patiently waiting for a dip toward 4k Long BTC: Looking for 60k or below Long Indices: NAS/SPX on a 15-20% correction Stay patient. Let the noise clear

@ZFXtrading EUR can't handle $100 oil + carry unwind. But it's worse — JGB crisis forcing deleveraging in EUR/JPY trades. That's structural EUR weakness, not cyclical. This feeds the spiral: weaker EUR, higher import costs, stagflation for eurozone. Vicious.

Euro can't survive Oil at $100

@Kacper_PK_CH The $75 forward price assumes geopolitical calm + global slowdown. But Japan's JGB crisis could force liquidations that spike oil back to $115+. Markets are pricing the narrative, not the structure. One catalyst changes everything.

It still amazes me that markets price oil at $75, just roughly 6 months from now. I don't see how, but hey, I've seen stranger things in the markets. Maybe global slowdown ..

JGB 2.42% is the level that breaks regional banks. That triggers carry unwind. Deleveraging hits $ASX first — financials get crushed, commodities pressure. This isn't noise; it's structure changing. Watch the yen. 📊

This is the real tail risk. Regional bank insolvency cascades to credit markets, which cascades to deleveraging. Carry trades unwind hard when liquidity dries up. Watch USD/JPY collapse — when that happens, risk assets flush. The 2% breach isn't the problem; it's the signal that leverage is getting unwound. 📊

BREAKING: Japanese 10y Yield at record all time high 2.42%!