@CXCarroll @spillproofgrail Negative for soy short term. Some major headline peace deal in the late summer to rebound markets. Markets back to highs in time for OpenAI Anthropic spacex ipo. Then crash?
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axjs13
494 posts
@spillproofgrail It will be negative for SPY (no trade deficit = no new USD being recycled into U.S. financial assets) but the catastrophe will be in poor countries that are net oil importers as they will be priced out by wealthier countries bidding for scarce exports.
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I have a decent track record of predicting this conflict so far so here's where I see things going. (quoted tweet is from six months before we hit Fordow in 2025). Short 🧵
CXCarroll@CXCarroll
@VerminusM @visegrad24 Ukraine helped knock off Assad which in turn forced Russia out of Syria which in turn allowed Israel to turn Syria into a "sterile corridor" for Israel's non-stealth aircraft. Because of that, Israel now has the ability to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
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@CapekSekarang @axjs13 i mean, if your candidate was afraid of a simple conversation you'd probably not vote for them, right?
you're also operating with hindsight benefit and at that moment in time, trump promised to release the files.
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Expect a broad Midwestern urban growth coalition to start ramping up over the coming years I think
B@ck to Detroit@BacktoDetroit
Dan Gilbert, major corporate players join Sheffield effort to grow Detroit’s population. crainsdetroit.com/politics-polic…
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@NewsLambert @JustinBloesch @ResidentialClub Supply meet demand. Look at home new units have been permitted and track that over last 5-7 years. You tell me what happens next ?
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@JustinBloesch @ResidentialClub Relative to the Sun Belt, the Chicago metro area (specially its burbs), are on the tighter side. Both for its for-sale and for-rent market.
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There’s something your landlord doesn’t want you to know: switching costs in the rental market are low right now
New leases are seeing more rent relief right now than renewal leases
The reason? New leases must compete on the open market amid a softer rental market backdrop
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@PaulSkallas Self hate is a powerful thing. Just don’t let it consume you
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Dirty fuel will get you to the same place as clean fuel. Lots of people are motivated by it and succeed.
scott 🌞@scottdomes
two ways to try to optimize your life: "if I don't get this right, I'll be a loser" -> leads to fear, tension, contraction. everything feels high stakes. unable to see self clearly through haze of fear. hard time coming up with creative ideas. chronic stress on mind & body "if I get this right, it'll feel really good" -> leads to openness, expansion, excitement. everything feels like a fun experiment. able to see self & world clearly, in the absence clouding judgement. easy to make novel connections between ideas. chronic relaxation of mind & body to move from A -> B, you must change your fundamental orientation towards self/world, letting go of old patterns of fear & scarcity. takes time but very doable
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@CharlieMMonger @d_gilz @finnjclancy Yes natural gas turbines are being specced now for data centers. Engine companies making a killing rn
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@d_gilz @finnjclancy What if the market is smelling that alternate energy sources are coming soon and USA will not need to import any oil? Rest of world may be hurting but USA will keep build out going
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@finnjclancy It’s energy + other raw inputs that are being effected. Clearly a short term spike doesn’t make much of a difference but the more prolonged the higher prices become, the more it will
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@TMTLongShort Actually now that I think about it more data centers will likely produce excess power and can fund new towns out of thin air in places like west Texas and other nuke friendly states.
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@TMTLongShort By this then USA will have figured out nuclear which makes oil and gas cheaper and cheaper for consumers thus fueling more growth. people will move to where life is good and not where the jobs are.
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When AI takes all the jobs who did you think would be the employer of last resort 😉
zerohedge@zerohedge
*PENTAGON HEADHUNTING BANKERS FOR ECONOMIC DEFENSE UNIT: SEMAFOR
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@SantiagoAuFund Do you think he’s factoring midterms at all? I’d assume he’s trying to finish this special operation (lol) before to get his brownie points.
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@TotemMacro Alternate power generation is around the corner. The bottlenecks will be fixed
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So am I to understand we likely got Nvidia’s peak backlog and the first contraction in data center construction since 2020 announced yesterday?
We’re at the absolute limits of financialisation. The spending commitments literally *can’t be spent* bc of real world constraints. If spending slows the D&A wall catches up and profits decline sharply, while economic incomes contract.
Then followed by backlog cancellations and inventory write downs, if we follow the classic script (and we are).
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@Eric_Erins Look up how many new units were permitted in last 3-5 years. It literally goes from like 2700/yr to less than 50 last year or some crazy shit like that. Supply and demand or something something
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@AlexNoonan6 Bc ice doesn’t care if you’re legal or not. They pick up whoever is brown. It literally says in the article legal workers don’t want to work for fear of getting detained without cause. Where is your critical thinking?
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Honestly question, is it possible to use legal labor? I'm just trying to understand why they are acting like a storm or some other act of God halted the work
Eric Finnigan@EricFinnigan
WSJ article today paints picture of what happens after ICE raids a new home construction site: Building slows down, crews avoid the area, homes sit half-finished, and local suppliers lose sales.
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@Molson_Hart No more like America is in Jordan’s gap year due to crippling (gambling) debt. We have another 3 peat before great reset 👍
American empire 🇺🇸
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@BigMeanInternet @MattZeitlin One data center will attract other data centers. Data center users want to be close to their clients and will build next to their facilities.
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@MattZeitlin I'm sure plenty have ideas that fall into neither "data center buy out" and "as is." I bet some of them are even pretty good! In fact, sorta seems like that's where all the good ideas would be.
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i *think* this is shared as an example of big tech doing a bad thing but i dunno man, $11.2 million is a lot of money. the usda says that average michigan farm real estate value is around $6,200 per acre, which is a lot less than $70,000
Tom Leonard@TomLeonard28
This isn’t a joke! A friend of mine was offered $70,000 an acre for her farm by a data center company. $11.2 million! This is what big tech is doing in Michigan.
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@MenchOsint Remember how when we won ww2 we dropped not one but two bombs. I think the chances of seeing some new shit might happen if the stars align for trumps “fat man”
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It would be insane if Trump bombed Iran without an aircraft carrier in the region, possibly a big mistake as this time, it is not like in June, Trump openly called for the fall of the government, Iran won't give a 'measured response'.
MenchOsint@MenchOsint
⭕️⚡️✈️ Suspicious U.S. military aircraft move over the Pacific, possible bombers related to Iran on the way. At least 8 x KC-135R tankers just landed in Honolulu, Hawai, possible first stop of a trip to the middle east. Important detail: The KC-135R that we saw in Diego Garcia on Jan 12-13 also landed in Honolulu.
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