The Holy Grail

@valuations_ If your time horizon is 5+ years this is still a good spot to buy no? What’s your read on the chances that we’re lower than here say 2 years from now?

A whole lot of overconfidence in both directions permeating my feed. Doomers vs Mega bull. So many variables and second order effects in play regardless of any reality show cliffhanger deadline tonight. Easier to acknowledge the unknowable and plan accordingly.

@realitybasedlaw @BarryRoland19 It didn’t. 2008+7 years = 2015 and there was no crash in sight

@BarryRoland19 Seems like you're implying that didn't work.

One of my earliest thoughts about real estate (maybe around 2012-13) was: “Interesting…so cycles in real estate happen on average every 7 years. I’ll just wait a few years for the next recession and scoop everything up hehehehe.”

@rev_cap America Of Communism

@CXCarroll So negative for the $SPY but nothing catastrophic then?

I have a decent track record of predicting this conflict so far so here's where I see things going. (quoted tweet is from six months before we hit Fordow in 2025). Short 🧵

@mindmodel @etorreborre That’s still 8 steps forward

@etorreborre If you know how to code it can be 10 steps forward, 2 steps back. Just keep an eye on code quality and budget enough time and effort for it.

My current experience with AI-driven code is that it can help a lot for getting started, for discussing alternatives, for boilerplate, for debugging, for code reviews, but the amount of incorrect, flawed or redundant code is a bit scary 1/2

@eris_nerung The third-worldification will continue until morale improves

underdiscussed brazilification: hiring and salary based on who you know, not on productivity or true value provided for company

@BernoulliDefect House prices have been dropping for years in most of the country and now tons of supply coming online.

Something to be said about how the human impacts of a housing shortage change as it goes on for longer. For ~10 years, people can delay life milestones, temporarily sort themselves into more efficient arrangements (flat shares, long commutes), and so on. Past that point, irreversible things start happening

@moninvestor Guy is losing it, not good

I thought this was AI. 💀 Then I saw it on Sky News and still thought it was fake. Then I had to double-check a few sources on X just to be sure.

@amedina_dev @DmytroKrasun Hah yes exactly x.com/spillproofgrai…

@DmytroKrasun For me it’s been for tackling small stuff on the weekends. I try to not code at all on the weekends and spend time with my wife. AI allowed me to just prompt a few small ideas, then on Monday I just review and push.

My biggest productivity gain with AI is not at my peak performance. It is actually the opposite. At my peaks, AI somewhat distracts me. But at my lowest, when I don't sleep well, am busy, or lack energy, I still manage to fix issues, ship improvements, and close support tickets almost every day. I wouldn’t have been able to do that in the past without AI. That is really something.

@DmytroKrasun This is SPOT ON. In my case I run a side business when already having a busy 9-5 and a kid. At nights I am drained and it’s difficult to write code by hand. Claude is tremendously helpful from that standpoint

@WillBiddy_ Thoughts on $META vs $AMZN?

$MSFT is without a doubt a phenomenal company with an undeniable history of execution and success. The stock has been hammered this year and I'm seeing investors plow in at these levels which I do believe is a solid investment. At the same time I don't see this as an opportunity anywhere close to $GOOGL last year or even $META currently. If we see FCF/share grow at essentially the same rate we've witnessed over the past decade (which will not be an easy feat), and the company trades at a reasonably high P/FCF we are looking at ~9% annual returns over the next 5 years. I think Microsoft likely has some upside from here, but I see plenty of better opportunities out in the market today such as $META $MA and even $GOOGL

@carrynointerest How much do you think using speckit would help with this, if at all?

@BoringBiz_ Question for long term investors: given how tech heavy $SPY is, does it still make sense to view it as the “stable” “invest and chill” etf?

Chamath on OpenAI and Anthropic, and why the tech sector price to equity valuation multiples will shrink much faster than other industries Worth giving a listen "Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale. It is unbelievable. These are trillion-dollar companies. They both are, and they both deserve to be ... The tech sector P/E is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than non-tech P/E. As these companies come out [to IPO], the combination of Space X, OpenAI and Anthropic - all 3 are baking an AI technology that will go after the tech sector It will eliminate, cannibalize, and erode most of the moats that support this differential trading"

@hodophiliac @rev_cap @blueprintsmb22 Industries with artificial barriers are the goat

@rev_cap @blueprintsmb22 Medicine is an exception. You become an attending in your late 20s, early 30s, and basically have a $200K-$1MM job until your body gives out or you choose to retire. More insulated from AI (relatively), too, than corporate / finance / tech.

Yup x.com/ethanrkho/stat…

@ryankatzrosene And you didn’t even touch on Malaysian food!

D is the right answer: Not only does it include Butter chicken, Pad Thai, Dim Sum, Pho, Ramen noodles, and Korean BBQ, it also includes Kebab, Baclava, Shawarma and Falafel… AND… if you zoom in, a little bit of Sicilian pasta, pizza, Greek salad and Moussaka. Seal the deal with a nice New Zealand rack of lamb, a glass of Shiraz and Pavlova for dessert.

@investingluc @tbpn Curious do you also have a 9-5? And if so would you be willing to have your employer know you’re doing a daily livestream or show your face? Something I struggle with a lot.

Those 2 dudes that started @tbpn 1.5 years ago just got acquired by openAI and made $100M each…goes to show the trend towards big $$$ being thrown at creators/attention. Feels like the first inning of this trend too. Sounds dramatic, but if you want to hack/fasttrack your way to getting really rich: 1) find something you love 2) talk about that thing in a unique/cool way on social media 3) do it consistently for 1yr+ And be intentional about it. There’s stupid money in the creator world…like silly silly dough being thrown around. Funny things is? Anyone can do it. We all have unique personalities. Look at @Mr_Derivatives. Look at any of these guys…it’s within reach if you have the stomach + swagger. I’ve been in big tech + startups. I know how CEOs think. I’ve seen the bottlenecks. The pain points. I’m telling you to create. Now!!! What an outcome for the tbpn boys…anyone want to do a daily finance livestream w me?! Wild.

@Ronoco87 @LimitlesCobz I see what you did there

@LimitlesCobz That nuclear material is not at either of those sites either. So it will literally be death for nothing. That material is Putin the open in cities and urban hubs, split up into several small containers.

THE MOST INSANE MILITARY PLAN AMERICA HAS EVER CONSIDERED The Pentagon briefed Trump on a plan to physically seize Iran's nuclear material. Here is what that actually means, step by step: Step 1: Fly hundreds of troops deep into Iranian airspace — one of the most heavily defended in the world. Step 2: Parachute the 82nd Airborne Division into the middle of a country you are actively at war with. Step 3: Secure a perimeter while Iranian ground forces, IRGC fighters, and air defenses are trying to kill everyone. Step 4: Build a runway. From scratch. In hostile territory. While under attack. Step 5: Fly in heavy excavation equipment. Step 6: Blast through Fordow or Natanz — facilities buried 80-90 meters underground inside reinforced mountain rock. Step 7: Extract roughly 450kg of highly enriched uranium — radioactive material that can kill you if mishandled. Step 8: Load it onto planes and fly out of Iranian airspace. This is what the Pentagon thinks is possible. The 82nd Airborne has already deployed to the Middle East. Three aircraft carrier groups are in the region. The war is in week 5. Trump is apparently listening. D-Day moved 156,000 troops across the English Channel with months of planning and naval support. The Bin Laden raid was 25 SEALs, a known compound, 40 minutes. This is neither.

@CapyWisdom @plantmath1 Retail gets left out of the party as usual

@plantmath1 Most SV IPOs have been straight line down due to too many rounds of private fundraising, largely used as exit liquidity for investors

The entire US stock market is worth ~$65T and we have a single company IPOing at $2T.. And then comes OpenAI.. and then Anthropic.. then Stripe and Databricks..? How is the market going to handle 10% more supply in the midst of a Gulf state pause on US investment?..

@Mr_Derivatives Why is $TLT up today then?

While everyone is talking about the Iran War, Oil, Epstein Files (or not), etc… THIS is what keeps me up at night. NEW multi decade highs on the 10yr Japanese bond yield today… And really no one is talking about it cause of all these distractions. Like what the great @leadlagreport keeps saying. Few. Literally.

@a__tomala This is totally the new status quo. Higher expectations and employers got everyone by their balls

Been noticing this vibe in general. Everyone seems to be more stressed now and I feel like a good number of people I've known for a while are becoming meaner.