Ben | Contrarian Investing

I'm Ben. Built MacroBiscuit, now writing a book on contrarian investing. This account is my public workshop - to share frameworks for finding unloved opportunities, case studies from market history, and tools for retail investors. Not predictions. Process.

Everyone on X is suddenly a geopolitical expert the last few days. I’m sticking to what I know - watching for market divergences and staying disciplined through volatility. Leave the war analysis to people who actually understand this stuff.

@TheSecretAcct Oil and USD it seems. Gold often goes down at first during mass liquidations like these…

I knew I should have concentrated more in Economics classes. Why is gold down? What are sellers investing in instead?

@DeItaone Bitcoin rallying alongside gold during geopolitical shock. Acting more like a hedge than a risk asset today... Divergence from recent correlation patterns - one to watch.

BITCOIN RISES 5.6% TO $69,393

@JavierBlas Great chart context. Today's spike looks dramatic until you see the Russia/Ukraine comparison.

CHART OF THE DAY: Without minimizing Qatar's announcement that it's shutting down LNG production (which triggered a 45% price jump), here's a bit of context about international gas prices. Using European benchmark TTF as a proxy, here's the price chart of the last few years.

@EPBResearch 100%, just posted something similar. Geopolitical shocks create headlines and short-term volatility, but rarely change the underlying situation. Markets overreact to the drama, then mean revert to fundamentals. This is where divergences and opportunities can appear.

Iran headlines are dominating everything. I'm watching, not trading right now. Geopolitical shocks tend to create short-term divergences between price and fundamentals. That's when opportunities appear, not in the initial panic.

@LairdElmski Profit is profit!

taken profits too quickly in #HBR but its what i do ,,snatch at profits and run losers ....you know it makes sense

@TheSecretAcct The thought of handing over control of my diary and scheduling to someone else has always terrified me.

“I’ll ask my PA to set something up” What a bloody annoying phrase in 2026. For the time it takes you to copy in your PA to the email you could just give me some dates and we could just set up a meeting ourselves. Everyone has electronic diaries.

@cashflow_king94 Agree it's easier than it's ever been. Wish the platforms and instruments were this advanced when I first started investing...

Unpopular opinion: You don't need a financial advisor. ISA. SIPP. Index funds. Income ETFs. Everything you need is free online. You just need to start. Agree or disagree?

@themotleyfool The contrarian in me wonders if this is a late-cycle indicator... Search interest peaking after a massive run? That's usually when retail enters, as opposed to smart money.

“Index funds” just hit an all-time high in Google searches.

@awealthofcs Interesting. Presumably this is partly because there are more over 55s with an aging population? Be interesting to see their share on a like for like basis. Also any views on how this compares with other developed economies?

Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/rich-o…

@VladTheInflator Love seeing this because everyone acts like buying is always the answer. In reality it depends on the period, location, rates, and what else you could do with the capital. No universal rule.

Buy a house or rent + investing Who wins?

@Barchart 2/3 of stocks beating the index. This is exactly why equal-weight indices matter right now. Cap-weighted gives you concentration, equal-weight gives you actual breadth. Historic opportunity for diversification to work.

Roughly 2/3 of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming the index this year, the broadest market strength in history 🚨🚨

@tracyalloway @bespokeinvest Pretty wild to see. Feels like this unwind could run for some time given the levels of US outperformance we’ve had in recent years.

"US stocks have underperformed stocks from the rest of the world to a near-historic degree" - @bespokeinvest

@Barchart Unfortunately still costs the earth at my local cafe!

Coffee falls to lowest closing price since November 2024 ☕️📉 Congrats everyone, we did it 🥳🫂

@ekwufinance The cure for low price is low prices, playing out.

US oil production is rolling over. Prolonged low prices have forced operators to cut back drilling activity, with the oil rig count down ~70 yoy. That reduction is now feeding directly into lower output. Even the EIA is now projecting further declines in US oil production. The shale growth engine is losing momentum.

@KevRGordon Tbf the S&P had a lot of catching up to do after the previous 5 years.

Bitcoin's performance over the past 5 years is about half of the S&P 500's

@ekwufinance 💯

@macro_ben Silver miners relative to the price of silver is very cheap

Silver ETFs relative to the broader ETF market are breaking out of a decade-long base. - 2010 peak : ~1.9% - 2016 breakout: ~0.5% To merely return to the prior high, silver ETFs would need to outperform the broader ETF market by roughly ~5x. That puts the recent price action into perspective. Even after the sharp rally in silver, investor positioning remains extremely light. ETF ownership is still far below the last peak, suggesting the move so far has been driven more by fundamentals than by capital inflows. In other words, the price has moved... but the allocation has not. That is why the upside potential remains substantial.

@themarketear Premium at 10-year lows. I think this trend probably has room to continue, but this is definitely one to watch. Could create a nice setup in due course.

Mag 7 are trading at the lowest premium vs. S&P 493 in last 10 years. zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…