Mark Stoker
947 posts
Look at what the bond market just said about Britain.
30-year: 5.73%.
20-year: 5.67%.
10-year: 5.06%.
Every single one screaming.
The bond market does not bluff. It does not vote. It does not protest.
It prices the truth.
And it has just told you Britain is uninvestable at the rates you are being offered.
Higher yields are not a reward. They are danger pay.
At noon today Andrew Bailey will speak. He will tell you everything is fine.
The bond market has already called him a liar.
You are watching the slow motion bankruptcy of Britain.
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The party is about to get started.
We’re all invited.
Charlie Morris@AtlasPulse
UK 30 year gilt yield approaching 6%. That is not a good thing. @trussliz only managed a brief 5%
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A reckoning is coming: Gilts are now consistently above 5% ⬇️
The gilt market has become reactive and jittery - it no longer is a bedrock of stability.
Iran war is compounding ever higher govt spending, taxes, debt and lack of monetary discipline. 1/
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As Kemi says… too much spending on welfare, not enough on defence.
See my @ConHome article below …
BBC Politics@BBCPolitics
Kemi Badenoch says the UK is spending "so much on welfare, we cannot afford to defend the country" and quotes former Labour defence secretary Lord Robertson The PM said he’ll “take no lectures” from Conservatives on defence spending #PMQs bbc.in/4ehsVMO
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@julianHjessop Is there any chance that a properly costed “rearmament plan” that details the benefits that defence spending can have on the overall economy might reassure markets? We desperately need to boost def spending NOW. France has debt at 120% of GDP so do we have any wriggle room?
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This again... 🙄
A reminder too that borrowing for defence is still borrowing, and the bond markets will see through any changes to the fiscal rules to accomodate it.
Does Andy Burnham really not get this yet? 🤔
Lucy Fisher@LOS_Fisher
👀 Andy Burnham suggests a defence spending uplift funded from borrowing outside the fiscal rules... V striking intervention - on many fronts - from Greater Manchester mayor today with @flacqua
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@Artemisfornow Ok well I’ll be interested to learn how they planned the demographic change that has been replicated in all developed countries as they urbanise and start having fewer children. When’s it out?
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It took 50 years of planning and 20 years of implementing to get into this mess. one parliament won’t solve anything.
And before that first parliament is over the majority will be screaming for a return to the ‘normal’
No one will vote themselves poorer, so they will vote for hope and fairytales. What we need to do can’t be done in 5 or even 10 years and by then a new generation will fall for the fairytales all over again.
50 years of planning can stand the hiccup of our tantrums. How depressing.
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@SirSimonClarke “Explosion” in health related welfare. Could you be more precise given that working age welfare spending is approx 5% of gdp the same as 2010.
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This absolutely will not work. Look at our borrowing costs this week - the UK is already a worsening outlier.
We need to fund defence. But we need to reduce other spending to pay for it - and the biggest problem is the exploding bill for health-related welfare.
Lucy Fisher@LOS_Fisher
👀 Andy Burnham suggests a defence spending uplift funded from borrowing outside the fiscal rules... V striking intervention - on many fronts - from Greater Manchester mayor today with @flacqua
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@PatternProfits Great stuff thanks Ben appreciate how generous you are with your time and input 👍
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@stokerm Both. $NQ 15min to .5 extension. $ES 30min to TBL (.5 ext only if there's no TBL). I'm more patient with $ES. I did a YT video on the $ES ORB strategy a couple years ago. That's where it all began for me. At the time, I was still terrified of trading $NQ.
youtu.be/yJaxmrPDI1E?si…
YouTube
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If struggling in growth stock land, no need for me to continue to harp on the subject. However, it's great to see a long timer like Greg find his way to futures trading, too. I also suppose a team USA olympic athlete knows a thing or two about stress! 🇺🇸🏅💪
Greg Dunc∩n@GregDuncan_
trading ORB on $ES has been much less stressful than trading stocks over the past 6 months
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@PatternProfits That’s good to hear as a relative newcomer to MH, ORB, IB I’ve found the past 2 weeks v difficult
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Ha! Just saw $ES tapped those levels right at 4pm. 😡
If you survived the week to this point, it's going to get easier from here. Lots of outliers in front of the Fed & big tech EPS, but time to settle back in. Price action will make sense again.
Working on new 0dte levels now.
Ben@PatternProfits
$ES $NQ IB upside breaks. $NQ takes MO. 🎯 $ES pRTH comes in at 7183 with MO right there, too.
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@john4brexit I do as I’d like to live there soon so getting my FOM back would be fantastic
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@thomasgodfreyuk £212bn?
Welfare Spending 2025/26
Children £5.3bn
Working age adults £126.1bn
Pensioners £177.7bn
gov.uk/government/pub…
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🚨 EXCL: Have you ever wondered how easy it is for work-shy Brits to get themselves signed off sick? Turns out the system is so broken that even AI can do it for you — in just 11 minutes. With worklessness at an all-time high, costing £212bn a year, isn’t it time for a crackdown?
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@toryboypierce @ONS Maybe but we will also have an extra 2million pensioners so who’s going to pay for them?
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Dire warning from @ONS that immigration will add another 2.2 million to the country's population in 10 yrs. We are full up already and schools & NHS are reeling from the strain
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@PatternProfits Missed it. It moved so fast couldn’t get desire entry
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@kathywinton3 @MatthewStadlen I do t expect you’ll understand but go on step out of your comfort zone and do some research as to why this is largely to blame rather than Labour.
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@MatthewStadlen Have a go at Milliband
Have a go at Reeves
It’s Labour
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The cost of living for millions and millions of people across the country is out of control.
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@sophielouisecc If you want to be a true journalist rather than regurgitate other peoples opinions please learn how to research facts and use them in your arguments. I’ll start you off, benefits burden is broadly unchanged in the last 45 years.
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one quarter of the UK workforce have post-tax earnings lower than many benefit claimants
There is no defending this.
It is utterly utterly unfair
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@PatternProfits Thanks Ben, thats is very helpful in terms of applying the different pieces into a broader narrative.
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Anatomy of a Great Session (A-M-D)
Without question, my best days follow a specific pattern. Almost a scripted one. No doubt peak performance comes during trend days, but it's often set up by certain traits in the pre-market & then right off the open...
tradingview.com/x/g3qPsr0a/
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UK has 27,876 ultra-high-net-worth individuals up only 12% since 2021. Meanwhile France is up 21%, Germany 32%, Italy 23% and Spain 42% - countries that are actively competing to attract investment and talent. A shame British is determined to punish wealth and make us all poorer
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