Bitcopia

@COLDCARDwallet Orange 🧡

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@HHorsley @Bitwise thank you

@Bitwise the audio is not from Bitwise

If you're going to invest in Bitcoin, this is what you need to know — Take 60 seconds an watch this graphic from @Bitwise.

@Polymarket So he watched South Park... Cool.

JUST IN: Uber founder says AI will make human labor far more valuable, predicts plumbers could become “like LeBron” in an automated world.

@sciencegirl Human bodies, and all matter, are 99.9999% empty space.

What’s a fact that sounds fake but is true?

@timevalueofbtc the fact that it is written in past tense also seems obviously emotionally manipulative and sensationalist. they could make the same case using the correct tense.

Many are going crazy over this Citrini piece on AI, so I asked Claude whether it was sensationalist and gave it a prompt to provide a critique. I use this on my own writing, by the way. This was Claude's take: "Okay, I've read it. Here's my take—yes, it's sensationalist, even if thought-provoking. Several holes: 1. Timeline is absurdly compressed. They posit ~2.5 years from "sector-specific layoffs" to 10% unemployment, 38% market drawdown, and systemic mortgage stress. Structural economic transformations don't move that fast. Even 2008—a financial shock with instant transmission—took years to fully unfold. Technology adoption has friction: contracts, inertia, implementation failures, regulatory drag. 2. "This time is different" is doing all the work. They acknowledge every prior tech revolution created more jobs than it destroyed, then hand-wave it away with "AI improves at the tasks humans would redeploy to." That's an assertion, not an argument. The same was said about the loom, the tractor, the spreadsheet. 3. They ignore the deflationary dividend. If AI is genuinely that productive, everything gets cheaper. Real purchasing power rises even with lower nominal wages. They mention "Ghost GDP" but never engage with the fact that deflation in goods/services raises living standards. Cheaper stuff is not a crisis—it's abundance. 4. Monetary/fiscal response is hand-waved. This is where your framework applies directly. They say the government is "confused" and leave it there. But if output is real and just not circulating through labor, that's exactly what monetary and fiscal policy can address. The Fed/Treasury toolkit is enormous. They even mention compute taxes and UBI-style transfers—so they know solutions exist, then ignore them. 5. The private credit → insurance → mortgage daisy chain is a stretch. PE-backed SaaS loans are not 2008 MBS. They're not in every pension fund, money market, and bank balance sheet. The "Athene-Apollo connection" is real but it's not systemically interconnected in the same way. 6. Mortgage stress is projecting a trajectory that doesn't exist yet. They admit delinquencies are "well below 2008 levels." Current mortgage book is 30-year fixed at 3-4% from 2020-21. Those borrowers have no incentive to sell into distress—they can ride it out. The 2008 mechanism (ARMs resetting, negative equity, forced selling) isn't present. 7. Agentic commerce routing around Visa/MC in 18 months? Payment rails have massive regulatory and consumer-protection inertia. Stablecoin adoption for commerce is plausible over a decade, not a year. Bottom line: It's a useful thought experiment but assumes (a) AI improvement continues exponentially without bound, (b) no policy response, (c) no price deflation benefits, and (d) every link in the causal chain fires perfectly in sequence within 2 years. That's fiction, not forecasting."

@CernBasher Lol this is not a real photo

Strategy + JP Morgan = STRC This wasn't on my bingo card for 2026, but it is now.

@TuurDemeester Was obvious then. But too many exchanges now that I don't watch. You see something? x.com/Bitcopia/statu…

@ODELLXYZ Staying humble is very easy at the moment.

good morning, stay humble and stack sats 🫡

@timevalueofbtc Here's a link so you don't have to Google it: thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/the-japanese…

Just published "The Japanese Rate Check Heard 'Round the World" What a development, do NOT sleep on this!

@matthew_pines Ibuprofen before bed is close to the worst idea. If you're in so much pain you can't sleep, consider bromelain (from pineapple core) instead. Just as affective without the poison.

thank you Claude for validating my choice to scarf two leftover donuts

@david_eng_mba @Ma1973sk MSTR bought more than $2 billion worth last week.

I provide the numbers and the framework to understand what is happening. Option expiry is only one part. The Escape Velocity Model shows that to break $100k, we need NET ~$781M of aggressive buying volume (CVD). Problem: ETF flows were -$679M today. Stay tuned.

The Great Compression: Why Physics Demands $121k, but Mechanics Pin Us at $90k There is currently a massive, invisible battle taking place in Bitcoin between Fundamental Physics (The Power Law) and Market Mechanics (Gamma Exposure). If you are watching the screen feeling like the price is "broken" or "heavy," you aren't imagining it. The market is currently in a state of artificial compression. Here is the deep-dive story of why the price is stuck, and exactly when the glue dissolves. 1. The Potential Energy (The Coil) Status: Deeply Undervalued Metric: Power Law Deviation (-25.5%) Look at the Power Law Corridor chart. This is the baseline reality. Trend Value: $121,318. Current Price: ~$90,400. The Gap: We are trading at a 25% discount to fair value. In a vacuum, price acts like a rubber band attached to that $121k fair value. The further we stretch below it, the harder the "snap back" force becomes. The "Market Coil" indicator in the bottom panel is deep in the red zone. This is Potential Energy. The physics of the network demand a reversion to the mean, but something is blocking the release. 2. The Kinetic Blocker (The Gamma Trap) Status: Volatility Suppression Metric: Net GEX +$34M (Dealers Long Gamma) Why hasn't the rubber band snapped back? Because of the Gamma Exposure Profile. Currently, Market Makers (Dealers) are Net Long Gamma. This is crucial to understand: When Dealers are Short Gamma: They trade with the market (buy high, sell low). This creates acceleration and volatility (squeezes). When Dealers are Long Gamma (Current State): They trade against the market. If Bitcoin rallies to $92k, dealers sell to hedge. If Bitcoin drops to $89k, dealers buy to hedge. They are essentially acting as a massive shock absorber, dampening every move. You can see this clearly in the Gamma Profile: Put Wall (Support): $90,000. Huge dealer buying interest here. Call Wall (Resistance): $92,000 - $93,000. Huge dealer selling interest here. We are pinned between these two walls. The market is trying to run a sprint ($121k target) while running through waist-deep water (Long Gamma). 3. One Catalyst: The "Jan 30" Pin Release Metric: $200M Gamma Expiry Mechanics override Physics in the short term, but Mechanics have an expiration date. Look at your Gamma Decay Timeline. This is the most important chart for the next two weeks. Jan 23 (3 Days): $96M gamma falls off. This is a crack in the dam. Jan 30 (10 Days): $200M gamma expires. This is the dam breaking. 36.7% of the total gamma suppression expires on January 30th. The Setup: As we approach Jan 30, the "pin" at $90k will likely hold. But the moment those hedges roll off, the dampening effect vanishes. If the Power Law "snap back" force is still active (which it is), the probability of a violent move toward fair value increases drastically after Jan 30. 4. The "Escape Velocity" Problem Status: Fuel Shortage Metric: Required Net Flow ($781M) vs. Actual Flow (-$679M) The Escape Velocity Model shows that to break $100k, we need NET ~$781M of aggressive buying volume (CVD). Problem: ETF flows were -$679M today. We are currently seeing a "liquidity mismatch." The physics (price) is ready to launch, but the tank (volume) is empty. However, this is often a lagging indicator. Volume tends to be reactive. When the gamma pin releases and volatility expands, that is often the time that brings volume back into the room. The Takeaway This is not "bearish"; it is mechanical. The market is effectively coiling a spring (Power Law deviation) inside a box (Gamma Pin). Short Term (Next 10 Days): Expect chop. The $90k magnet is strong. Dealers will kill any rally to $93k and buy any dip to $88k. Medium Term (Feb+): The box opens. The friction disappears. The path to $100k+ becomes a function of simple buying pressure rather than fighting a structural headwind. The "Rollover" is the market voting on the next range. If the big players roll their exposure to higher strikes, the $90k price level likely loses its structural glue, and the Power Law forces take over to snap price toward the new magnet ($100k+). Verdict: The physics are inevitable. The mechanics are temporary. The wait will end. #DYOR Future Bitcoin option expirations and their potential impact on market volatility.

@texasrunnerDFW The only reason housing has worked so well for the masses is because they unwittingly took on leverage in an environment where the leverage was cheap. Even though it performed worse than equity indices, they're levered into it with cheap credit.

The average annual S&P 500 return over the last 20 years is 10-11% The average annual return on a US home over the last 20 years is around 4% I’m not a fan of selling the first to fund the second when home prices are at all time highs with weak future demographics

@HHorsley Lol absurd. Bitcoin outperformed everything in this index and with much less risk. Realize that Bitcoin is for investing / saving. Simplify your life while simultaneously outperforming with integrity. Everything else is for speculating at best.

"I know crypto will be big, but honestly I don't know how it's all going to play out or who the winners will ultimately be." One can achieve a wonderful intellectual humility and calmness by investing with $BITW, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF. Was true the, still true now.

@_fod0 @BAYC5511 @UltraLinx lol i also didn't have trouble comprehending what was being presented at 900 wpm. some people may just have different skills and abilities than others.

@BAYC5511 @UltraLinx You're a liar.

Can you read 900 words per minute? Try it.

@caprioleio Looks like it flips bullish for any short term rally, including short little bear market pumps. Not sure how to make it a useful data point.

Bitcoin volume summer just flipped bullish. Let's go.

@novogratz Elizabeth Warren isn't working with good faith on anything.

While the crypto bill might be delayed to keep working on it, I am very confident that a bill will get done soon. I have spoken to over 10 senators on both sides of the aisle in the past 24 hrs and I believe they all are working in good faith to get something done. Always gets tense at the end.

@Matt_Hougan Lol

Once they learn about it, the institutional investors we talk to love Chainlink. I’m really excited to launch the Bitwise Chainlink ETF $CLNK today and have the opportunity to discuss this asset with investors.

@jameslavish We are all actors.

Good morning. Stop listening to actors. Stop listening to politicians. Stop listening to the talking heads on the news. Block out all the noise, and start to critically think for yourself. And have a great day.

@DrKristieLeong lol avocados also have more polyphenol oxidase than bananas do. if you care about this, don't put anything in your smoothie that browns relatively quickly when exposed to air.

Is your morning smoothie destroying its own health benefits? UC Davis researchers discovered that adding bananas to berry smoothies drastically reduces flavanol absorption, compounds linked to heart and brain health. The culprit is an enzyme in bananas that destroys these beneficial compounds before your body can use them. Why not add avocado instead for creaminess and healthy fats?