Holy Poly

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Holy Poly

Holy Poly

@HolyPoly_ca

Dominate prediction markets through calculated statistical advantage. https://t.co/ukR1hh6xLc

Sweden Tham gia Temmuz 2016
557 Đang theo dõi226 Người theo dõi
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Holy Poly — Project Structure. Holy Poly is a suite of tools designed for working with prediction markets (primarily @Polymarket ). The project focuses on analysis, monitoring, and assisting with trading within these markets. Tools currently available to users: ◾️ Iran Situation Monitor. •Tracks news and key developments. •Helps inform decisions in related markets. ◾️ Earthquake Monitor. •Designed for earthquake-related markets. •Provides real-time event tracking. ◾️ Position Calculator (delta-neutral strategies). •Built for crypto-related prediction markets. •Enables construction of delta-neutral strategies. •Accounts for time decay. •Analogy: partially similar to options. ◾️ Multi-leg Arbitrage Screener. •Identifies arbitrage opportunities across markets. •Supports multi-leg strategies. ◾️ Elon Musk Activity Monitor. •Tracks tweet counts per market on Polymarket (including monthly markets). •Includes a mathematical prediction model. •Provides an activity heatmap. •Available to all users until the end of April. holypoly.ca
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Moses
Moses@holy_moses7·
Don't ever install any extension to your browser.
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose

I just went on a whole journey to figure out what this was. I checked the transaction on-chain, and the fee was not paid because of Polymarket, it was paid because of a builder code that @polymarket_O3O was using, which charged 0.1% fees ($5!). I couldn't find any reference to the builder code online, but I tracked down all the trades that used that code. The code had made ~300 dollars over about 2 months. O3O had been using it for weeks, but not on every trade. When I reached out to O3O, they claimed they didn't use any terminals. When I sent them the list of the accounts that had used the code, they also said that another account that belonged to them was in the list. I then reached out to any other traders using the code whose Twitter accounts were linked. One person responded, @GutsPoly said that they had traded directly on the Polymarket website for the trades where the chain showed they were using the code on. I then directly asked O3O if they had any Polymarket-related extensions installed... Turns out it's @securezer0's Chrome Extension, when I looked through the extension's code, I found that it was injecting its builder code. It did not appear to do anything suspicious. The fact that it charged 0.1% fees was not disclosed in the Chrome extension description. I reached out directly to SecureZero, and they said they did add their builder code, but they refunded all of them. When I mentioned that it was not disclosed in the extension text, they were surprised and said that Chrome "rejected our extension upgrade where that was added" (to the description of the Chrome extension) and that they "did not mean to mislead". For the record, I believe them; it was 300 dollars total in fees, there is no reason to do something over that much (and it was only 0.1%). They have since taken down the extension (or at least I can't access it at the URL anymore). I mostly wanted to share this as both a warning (to be very careful what Chrome extensions you install). And because it was an interesting experience trying to find out what was causing this. I obviously do not think Chrome extensions should be charging fees without disclosing them (AND YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OPT-OUT OF THIS). But I do not think this was meant to be inherently malicious.

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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
My journey: $200 → $100K on @Polymarket Geopolitics makes up the majority of my trading. I occasionally diversify with Elon Musk tweet markets and weather prediction markets. Over the last month and a half, news events have been stretched out for so long that even I started doubting my own convictions. As a result, my final move wasn’t as high-risk as I had originally planned. Thanks to proper risk management, I’ve climbed back into the top 2,000 accounts out of more than 2 million on Polymarket. I always withdraw 80% of my profits from the platform. Sure, this makes it harder to scale aggressively, but it also makes it much harder to blow up your bankroll — and that’s what matters most in the long run. We keep moving forward. My profile: @spirit-lt?r=HolyPolySpirit" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@spirit-lt?r=H…
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
I closed the position. There was no early goal from the underdogs. They’re holding on well, but the Spaniards will most likely break through eventually. So I took the profit and cashed out — enough for an ice cream.
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Every World Cup produces its share of surprises. Bosnia’s result against Canada already showed that home-field advantage and betting odds don’t guarantee anything. Right now, the market seems to be significantly undervaluing Cape Verde. This team didn’t reach the World Cup by accident — they won their African qualifying group ahead of Cameroon. Over the past year, they have also beaten Serbia and Finland. I’m not saying they’ll beat Spain. But if Cape Verde scores first or simply manages to hold a draw for most of the match, the market could reprice their chances very aggressively — from 3¢ to 30¢ on Polymarket. We’ll see. Market here: polymarket.com/sports/world-c…
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Top strategy for the 2026 World Cup on @Polymarket The idea is simple: buy teams with a high probability of advancing from the group stage and sell the position once they qualify for the playoffs. The knockout stage is always unpredictable, so there’s no point in holding too long. As soon as a team advances — take profits and rotate out. Here’s what our team would buy by groups and how I see the potential price movement: Group A — Mexico (1c → 3c). Group B — Switzerland (1c → 2c). Group C — Brazil (8c → 10c) + Morocco (1c → 3c). Group D — Turkey (1c → 3c). Group E — Germany (5c → 8c). Group F — Netherlands (4c → 6c). Group G — Belgium (2c → 4c). Group H — Spain (16c → 22c). Group I — France (16c → 22c) + Norway (1c → 4c). Group J — Argentina (8c → 12c). Group K — Portugal (10c → 15c) + Colombia (1c → 4c). Group L — England (11c → 16c) + Croatia (1c → 4c). Don’t forget — this is football. A clear favorite can always become the underdog, and vice versa. Market: polymarket.com/event/world-cu…
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Ronaldo will cry. There’s little doubt about that. Everyone knows how emotional and sentimental Cristiano is. A group-stage exit, a missed penalty, reaching a final, an injury — tears. This will be the last World Cup for a legend. I didn’t buy YES when I first wrote about this market at 56c. I’m not buying it now at 71c either. I’m waiting. On June 17, Portugal will play their opening match of the tournament against DR Congo. I’m expecting a comfortable win with little emotion involved. After the inevitable repricing of YES down by 20–30c, that’s when I’ll buy. Market: polymarket.com/event/will-ron…
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Mexico 🟢 Korea 🟢
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
What’s the deal with buying at 99.8¢? There are many ways to bond a trade. First, let’s look at it from the perspective of volume farming. Why do this? - Want to give people your referral link? You need $10K in volume. - Want a Polymarket airdrop? Farm volume. - Want a Polymarket airdrop? Improve your win rate. How does it work? This is just one approach: x.com/holypoly_ca/st…. In simple terms, you’re buying certainty. The ideal moment is when the outcome is already effectively decided (for example, after a World Cup match has ended). Bonding sports markets is one of the lowest-risk ways to do it. The result is already known, UMA won’t interfere, and neither will Polymarket. The second approach is farming + profit. There are Polymarket accounts that exclusively buy outcomes at 99.8–99.9¢. These traders deploy millions of dollars into positions to make something like $200. At first glance, the risk/reward ratio seems absurd. But I’m convinced they’re not taking that risk for utility-bill money — they’re farming what could be a very lucrative future Polymarket airdrop. If that’s the case, the trade-off starts to make sense. Here are two examples of such farmers: 1. @033033033?r=HolyPolySpirit" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@033033033?r=H… 2. @poorsob?r=HolyPolySpirit" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@poorsob?r=Hol… So you’ve found the accounts. What’s next? Plug them into your bot and copy-trade them intelligently. Speed isn’t particularly important in these markets, so there’s no need to rush. Buy at 99.9¢, sell at 100¢ after resolution. Pure bond. If all the pieces line up correctly, you’re essentially buying an already-approved outcome. All that’s left is to bond the trade. What pieces need to line up? Here’s what I look for: - Traders like poorsob or 033 enter the position with more than $1 million. - If a dispute is open, voting in the UMA Discord is leaning the same way. - There is clarification from Polymarket (I haven’t seen a case where their guidance was later reversed). - It should be a YES token, since NO tokens can sometimes attract unexpected arguments for a reversal. - My own assessment matches the market consensus. Personally, I’m not doing this for the profit, so I use standard position sizing. For me, it’s just another small contribution toward a possible Polymarket airdrop.
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Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca

Farming volume on Polymarket. Mexico vs South Africa. 85th minute, 2–0 scoreline, and South Africa are down to 10 men after a red card. For anyone watching the match, even a draw no longer looks like a realistic outcome. Polymarket has allocated $1 million in liquidity rewards for World Cup markets.

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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Farming volume on Polymarket. Mexico vs South Africa. 85th minute, 2–0 scoreline, and South Africa are down to 10 men after a red card. For anyone watching the match, even a draw no longer looks like a realistic outcome. Polymarket has allocated $1 million in liquidity rewards for World Cup markets.
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
«Buy Panic, Sell Relief» — a World Cup strategy for Polymarket. The tournament starts today, and if you still haven’t decided on a trading strategy, here’s one worth considering. World Cups create some of the biggest overreactions in sports markets. After just one loss or draw, a team’s odds often collapse far more than their actual chances of advancing from the group stage. What to do: • Buy strong teams after a disappointing first match. • Avoid teams that are already on the verge of elimination. • Sell once they return to the top two spots in the group or after a convincing second-match win. Examples: • France draws 1-1 against an underdog → price falls from 16c to 10-12c → buy → rebounds to 15-18c after a win in Matchday 2. • England unexpectedly loses its opener → the market starts pricing in an early exit → buy the dip. • Brazil drops points in the first game → media panic kicks in → buy before sentiment recovers. Why it works: The group stage is longer than it feels. One win and one draw are often enough to advance. The crowd systematically overreacts to the most recent result. Exit rules: • Take +30-50%. • Fully exit once the team qualifies for the knockout stage. • Don’t hold positions deep into the tournament. The edge isn’t predicting the winner. The edge is buying fear when everyone else is overreacting. Market: polymarket.com/event/world-cu…
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Kyzen
Kyzen@chef_of_ai·
Scandal surrounding the 2026 World Cup. Uzbekistan’s national football team was subjected to lengthy and intrusive security checks in New York. Bags were unpacked, players went through metal detectors, and literally every pocket was inspected. Previously, representatives from Senegal and Iraq reported similar treatment, fueling accusations of discriminatory profiling by US security services ahead of the tournament. Now the big question is what will happen with Iran’s national team if they actually travel to the World Cup and refuse to withdraw. Meanwhile, there’s an interesting market on @Polymarket right now: Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Potential 50x upside if Iran ultimately does not participate in the tournament. polymarket.com/event/will-ira…
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
ANTHROPIC RELEASES CLAUDE FABLE 5 (MYTHOS-CLASS MODEL)- INFINITYHEDGE YES
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Holy Poly
Holy Poly@HolyPoly_ca·
Mythos ≠ Mythos ? @Polymarket traders are once again learning the most annoying lesson in prediction markets: internal codenames do not matter. Right now rumors are spreading that: “Mythos is launching today as Claude Fable.” But according to the actual market rules, that alone is probably NOT enough for YES. The rules specifically say: — the model must officially be named “Claude Mythos” or — Anthropic must explicitly describe it as “Mythos-class”. If Anthropic launches a model called Claude Fable but never publicly connects it to Mythos, then technically the market should not resolve YES. Even if everybody understands it’s the exact same project. And this is peak Polymarket. The technology matters less than the wording. Not: “is this the actual model?” But: “did the company phrase the announcement correctly?” Prediction markets are slowly turning everyone into contract lawyers with GPU opinions. And this is where it gets funny. Because now people are no longer just betting on AI releases. They’re betting on: branding, marketing language, launch wording, and whether some Anthropic employee includes the phrase “Mythos-class” in a blog post. One sentence can move millions of dollars. -> polymarket.com/event/claude-m…
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The Greek Trader
The Greek Trader@TheGreekTrader·
You can join the private Discord server for Polymarket traders that are active on X. Many known traders like @CarOnPolymarket , @holy_moses7 and @tsybka are already in. To join comment your Polymarket profile and if you fit the criteria, I will DM an invite.
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dethective
dethective@dethective·
What if you had been the first to know when Polymarket changed the rules for the MSTR market? I built a bot to alert you whenever Polymarket changes its rules. I believe there is a real need for traders. Next time, if they change something, make sure you see it before everyone else 👇
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