Andrew Bumstead
2.1K posts
@onyeka1emmanuel @harrisonhagen10 @KevinOConnor Yeah... I just don't see any mvp level player sitting when the opponent's best players are on the floor. To imply that JB is the only player to be played this way is ridiculous and not backed up by any stats.
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@andy_bumstead @harrisonhagen10 @KevinOConnor It's not that they don't play but it's to what extent. If jb wants to increase his plus minus stats there are easy ways to do that that are not best for the celtics
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I know this data is perceived as a knock on Jaylen Brown, but I think it’s more a testament to the incredible coaching of Joe Mazzulla. The decisions that Mazzulla made, the lineups he used, the empowerment of his depth, and the system he installed, are all what positioned this team to have so much success without their two best players on the court. It is Mazzulla that is the true outlier on that chart.
Lev Akabas@LevAkabas
Jaylen Brown is on track to finish 5th in NBA MVP voting, according to ESPN's recent straw poll The Celtics' net rating has been 5.3 points worse with Brown on the court this season That would be the worst on/off of any top 5 MVP finisher in the play-by-play era
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@onyeka1emmanuel @harrisonhagen10 @KevinOConnor Mmm. So your theory is that all the other MVP candidates that this chart tracks, don't play against the opposition's good players, but JB is different?
I'm skeptical.
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@harrisonhagen10 @andy_bumstead @KevinOConnor absolutely not! teams hav their own strategy, like in the nba finals jb said i am guarding luka ! so when luka went to the bench he went to the bench, when he got back in so did jb & thats how he won mvp. its completely different for only offensive players who just play offense
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@onyeka1emmanuel @KevinOConnor The stat holds up over multiple years. If the stat is out of context please enlighten us and interpret it in context. I'll await your findings.
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@KevinOConnor Does anybody really think this Boston Celtics team would finish higher than Charlotte if jaylen didn't play this season? Folks are just taking stats out of context to justify their opinions.....smdh
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@HuckleberryBen @SamQuinnCBS Gotcha. I wasn't following the tournament structure. My bad.
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1. The top 14 teams make the playoffs.
2. The rest of the league plays a single elimination tournament.
3. The finalists of that tournament secure the #1-2 picks, and grab the 8 seed in the playoffs.
4. The tournament is seeded based on post ASG W-L record so teams tanking at the end get punished.
At best, teams would have a ~10% chance at getting the #1 pick. No team squarely in the playoffs would actually tank for this, even in the year when LeBron was the #1 pick.
It would be too hard to do. And most importantly we’re talking about 5-6 games at the end of the season. The teams in 5-8 would have too hard of a time timing the tank. Any earlier and they still have a chance at a top 4 seed. Any later and it’s out of their control. Too many variables
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Been thinking about this since KOC dropped it. I think it's the first proposal I've seen that would genuinely eliminate bottom-of-the-standings tanking (but not middle-standings tanking). However, I think for it to be fairly implementable, there's one tweak it absolutely needs.
An 18-team drawing creates scenarios in which the worst team could wind up with the 18th pick. If you're reducing tanking, outcomes like this punish teams that are genuinely bad instead of artificially bad, and a genuinely bad team picking 18th is going to remain genuinely bad way longer than you want it to. Therefore, in order for the draft to maintain its function as a talent balancing mechanism, I think this rule would have to be paired with a draft slot floor for the three worst teams. Here's my proposal:
Teams 1-3: 6% at No. 1; cannot pick lower than 9th.
Team 4-10: 8% at No. 1; no floor on their pick.
Teams 11-18: 3.25% at No. 1; no floor on their pick.
I think it's reasonable to expect the worst teams to improve picking 9th every year, but not 18th. I might also endorse some mechanism to acknowledge the difference between picks owned by their original teams and traded picks (why should a team by punished for being smart enough to trade for the worst team's pick?), but I think this balances the need to improve the worst teams with the league's desire to reduce tanking.
My personal preference is still not to flatten odds, but we're here now, so if we're doing it, let's do it fairly and actually act in ways the help teams who are bad organically improve.
Kevin O'Connor@KevinOConnor
During the NBA GM meeting this week, one person suggested make the bottom three teams ineligible for the top picks entirely. The league, per multiple sources, found this to be way too extreme. But then another person on the call offered a softer version of the same concept: What if the bottom three teams just had slightly lower odds than the teams ranked four through 10? Not zero. Just a little less. Sources on the call say Adam Silver responded enthusiastically to this idea. Which speaks to the state of lottery reform. The 18 team/8% odds for the top 10 concept is simply still just the concept. The specifics of it will change by the time the league votes on it in late May. And adjustments — like this one — are still in heavy consideration. I think it’s brilliant. Under that structure, with the bottom three teams having slightly worse odds, there is no longer a single point in the standings where losing helps you. Tanking all the way to the bottom hurts you a bit. It’s not quite relegation that you’d see in the Premier League, but it’s the NBA’s own form that would punish being the worst in the league. And much like Premier League teams have entertaining games to prevent relegation, NBA teams would too. Picture two bad teams in late March, both within a game of the bottom three, both desperate to win. That's a win for the fans. Picture the front office of the Wizards doing the calculus on whether to shut down Trae Young and Anthony Davis and realizing that, actually, no, the vets need to go play, because falling in the standings is a real cost now, not a reward. That's a win for the sport. Picture Sacramento intentionally fouling Seth Curry late in a game, and the conversation around it shifting from "nefarious tanking" to "bad coaching." That's a win for the league. More on @YahooSports:
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@JeffKirdeikis Good luck. I'm scared to short because crime.
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$WLFI is going to zero.
Same playbook at Luna + FTX
Easiest short of the year.
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@RenzoTake @AndrewDBailey And?
Pretty sure the point is, that Curry is falling behind with little indication that anything will change.
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@AndrewDBailey Just for the comments to not be confused...
demar played More 200+ more games
7000+ MORE MINUTES
and he's only 300+ points away from Steph.
STFU.
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DeMar DeRozan passed Stephen Curry on this list earlier this season, is over a year younger than Curry and has scored more points than Curry this season, over the last three seasons and over the last seven seasons.
LegendOfWinning@LegendOfWinning
This is actually a really great point. The Carson and Demar drama is even more irrelevant when you realize that DeMar will probably not even be top 10 in scoring. Curry will more than likely pass him next year and between Curry and Harden they will raise the bar so high that you basically need to score 30,000 to be top 10… which I don’t know if DeMar will keep up. But if he does kudos to DeMar
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@HuckleberryBen @SamQuinnCBS I must be misunderstanding your proposal. Are you proposing that the 8 seed gets the number 1 pick? If so, teams absolutely would throw the final games for that. Teams are throwing away whole seasons for a 15% chance right now.
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A team that has the 5th seed in either conference is not convincing its roster to throw the final games of the season to finish 8th in order to win 4 straight single elimination games to secure the top pick. That suggestion is unserious.
The teams are too good and the likelihood of getting the top pick is too small for it to be a viable option. That’s a great way to alienate your fanbase though
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@HuckleberryBen @SamQuinnCBS Giving them a guaranteed top pick is to juicy of a prize. I could see tilting the draft odds to favor the winner of the play-in as a better solution.
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@HuckleberryBen @SamQuinnCBS If the top pick is a Wemby, Flag, AD, LeBron type prospect, then teams would be heavily incentivized to try to get in that spot.
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@josefabregab @ImperiumPaper @DefiIgnas Seems like they could have solved that by using fluid.
But then they couldn't do crime.
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@ImperiumPaper @DefiIgnas IMO the problem is ~$75M of borrowing was routed through an advisor-linked platform while there’s only ~$35M of DEX liquidity for WLFI across all chains + the “we can just print more if we need”.
The more dolomite raises caps, the more they handicap stablecoin depositors
jfab.eth@josefabregab
There’s ~$35M of WLFI liquidity across all DEXs. Yet @worldlibertyfi accessed ~$75M in USDC via @Dolomite_io. The market wasn’t willing to provide liquidity, so the Trump family routed around it. How? Via its advisor’s platform, at the expense of stablecoin depositors, with liquidity now effectively exhausted. Profit: $40M. Welcome to crypto.
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They never explained how they’ll repay the stablecoin debt.
Because they can’t.
WLFI is too illiquid to sell: dumping $8.2M causes ~72% slippage, and $411M sits deposited on Dolomite.
Thanksgiving is coming.
WLFI@worldlibertyfi
Let's talk about the FUD going around our WLFI Markets lending position. It's wrong. Here's what's actually happening — and why the real story is a lot more interesting.
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@LocalRoastingCo @jimmydean197 I'll take your word for it. I moved away 16 years ago. I still enjoy visiting.
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@andy_bumstead @jimmydean197 It does actually. The vibe in that town just completely sucks though.
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Heard rumors, so I went to see this high end condo unit here in Bend, OR. I ran into a city inspector who confirmed there's been no work in 3 months, 3 pended units fell out of contract, and subs have not been paid in that time. We are literally watching the PE defaults mounting in real time.
@m3_melody @MacroEdgeRes @DonMiami3 @MauiBoyMacro @MrAwsumb @VladTheInflator @jonbrooks
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@SamQuinnCBS Would that destroy the incentive to not be one of the worst three teams? The objective with the proposal is that teams try not to be in the bottom 3. I think this would take that away.
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@HuckleberryBen @SamQuinnCBS Teams 4-7 would be tanking to try and get that spot 😂
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Why not merge the incentives of the play in and lottery into one single elimination tournament? The finalists get the top 2 picks AND secure the eighth seed in the playoffs. That way it’s a cherry on top, not something teams actively avoid.
It would solve tanking. Seed teams by post ASG W-L record. Every game on the schedule is worth trying to win at that point. No benefit to losing on purpose
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@LocalRoastingCo @jimmydean197 TBF, Bend has a lot of things a most large city's don't.
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@jimmydean197 “I live in a condo in Bend, Oregon. It combines all the costs of living in a large city with none of the benefits.”
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@SamQuinnCBS I don't know if they get that bump even if they crush the playoffs this year. There is a lot of talent missing and playoffs haven't even started. If another star gets injured, it could be an uninspiring championship.
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I have two theories on this and I think they work in tandem.
1. They've thus far underperformed relative to expectation in the playoffs. Lost to the Mavs as a No. 1 seed. They were heavily favored against the Nuggets/Pacers and were pushed to the absolute brink by both of them.
2. We haven't seen them at their absolute best for a full season yet. Chet/Hartenstein injuries last year. J-Dub this year. I think there's a sense that one year they'll have everyone together and win 70+ that hasn't happened yet.
I think if they had more broad appeal, the narrative here would be "they're this good already and they haven't come close to the peak." But people don't like SGA's playing style or Dort's dirtiness and they find the personalities involved boring. So instead the narrative for the people that dislike them becomes "they only won the title because Haliburton got hurt, they're overrated, stop handing them a peak they haven't reached yet and may never reach because nobody has ever gone 74-8 and in December people were talking about it as an inevitability."
I'm really fascinated by what happens in relation to the Spurs though. Because I do think there's a world in which the Thunder maybe win one more title, but the Spurs ultimately become the dominant superpower of this era, and so we remember the Thunder more like the Bad Boy Pistons to San Antonio's Bulls. I think if OKC rolls through these playoffs they'll get all-time acclaim. But long-term this is the thing I wonder about.
Hardwood Paroxysm@HPbasketball
I'm really interested by the idea that the Thunder are, objectively, an All-Time team. Wins. Point Differential. Defense. Defense with Offensive Capability. Led by MVP. Depth. Coaching. Culture. Execution. But they do not feel like the all-time great teams *to me* and I do not know why. (Thunder fans, I get they fell like that to you and that people SHOULD view them that way. Read the first part again.) If you're not a Thunder fan, does OKC feel like an all-time great team on par with Warriors 2016, 2017, or say, Heat 2012 (who were objectively much worse than OKC), OKC 2014, 01 Lakers, etc? If not, why not?
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@MurphBry @HPbasketball I agree re: SGA.... But as for the ref dynamic, GSW had the refs working just as hard for them allowing their "drag screens" for Curry.
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@HPbasketball I think SGA being arguably the most shameless foul grifter in NBA history while the OKC defense gets away with murder at the same time prevents them from getting that perception since the terrible NBA officiating plays such an obviously pivotal role in their success.
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I'm really interested by the idea that the Thunder are, objectively, an All-Time team. Wins. Point Differential. Defense. Defense with Offensive Capability. Led by MVP. Depth. Coaching. Culture. Execution.
But they do not feel like the all-time great teams *to me* and I do not know why. (Thunder fans, I get they fell like that to you and that people SHOULD view them that way. Read the first part again.)
If you're not a Thunder fan, does OKC feel like an all-time great team on par with Warriors 2016, 2017, or say, Heat 2012 (who were objectively much worse than OKC), OKC 2014, 01 Lakers, etc? If not, why not?
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@tomwanhh @Ethena_Eco ENA team is great and I think the moves are solid but tokenomics is still a problem IMO. ENA only has real value if fee switch is on and flipping the switch takes fees away from sUSDe. Not sure that works long term.
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ENA is trading at a 5.6 FDV/Fees ratio in March, another low since Jan 26.
The proposed expansion of USDe reserves adds more fuel to the thesis:
• Institutional Lending (Maple, Coinbase, Anchorage)
• High Quality RWAs
• Equity & Commodities Basis Trade
• Prime Lending
The expansion gives Ethena more flexibility to chase higher yielding markets as conditions shift. More diversified backing could mean higher sUSDe APY, which increases the USDe supply and monthly protocol fees.
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@blazerwagon Talent wins in the playoffs not experience. This team isn't built to be anything more than mediocre.
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Portland’s at a crossroads 👀
Make the playoffs 🏀 and build experience for next season…
OR miss out and take a swing at the #1 pick 🎯
They were ONE ping pong ball away from Wemby & Flagg 😳 maybe luck finally turns 🍀
Would this lineup make them a contender next year? 🔥
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