dvduval
371 posts


I’ve been a hardcore advocate for AI acceleration for a long time.
Looking at my posts, a lot of people might assume I’m a decel.
I read Ray Kurzweil’s "The Singularity Is Near" almost 15 years ago back when I was a student, and I’ve spent years studying and believing that this is the future.
I kept talking about the Singularity to people around me, but until just 2 years ago, they treated me like a conspiracy theorist.
Now, we are literally standing at the threshold of that Singularity.
However, I’ve always believed that the hype overblown by frontier labs to secure funding, combined with their attempts to shut out open source and build monopolies, is fundamentally wrong—so I called it out.
Yeah, when you point out what frontier labs are doing wrong, a lot of people walk away.
They just want hype and acceleration, and they don’t want to face the truth.
Sometimes when I read posts by others and see replies from people who blocked my account, it honestly hurts.
But I’m going to keep pushing for what I believe is right. I truly believe Open Source AI is the only thing that will drive real acceleration and stop monopolies.
Thank you for paying attention to this issue.
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@thomasunise @mkratsios47 Any company has the right to make their content private. If something is published publicly on the Internet, there must be the expectation that other people will use it. If there is a direct copyright infringement, that is something that can be addressed.
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We have information that Moonshot AI distilled Anthropic’s Fable for the development of its K3 model.
To do this they developed a sophisticated internal platform to conduct large scale distillation against U.S. models, allowing them to quickly switch between multiple methods of access to avoid detection. Moonshot AI has also acquired GB300-equipped servers and has accessed GB300s in Thailand, likely to train its AI models.
The United States strongly supports the free and fair development of AI, including a thriving competitive ecosystem that spans frontier models, specialized systems, open-source frameworks, and open-weight models. Legitimate AI distillation used to create smaller, more efficient models plays a vital role in this open innovation ecosystem. However, large-scale, covert industrial distillation aimed at stealing proprietary U.S. technology and undermining American research is unacceptable.
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@bindureddy I think which key here is the scale level were involved over 20,000 accounts and millions of queries. I don’t blame them for wanting to protect themselves.
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Sigh, US companies and govt complaining that China distilled model outputs is SUPER LAME
Labs routinely distill model outputs from each - Meta, Grok, and others do it all the time
TBH, even Anthropic trained their models on large agentic loops run by their users - they took someone else's data
So what exactly is the big deal?
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The best thing about the Chinese AI labs and their open weight models is that they don’t create unnecessary hype around every release like Anthropic does.
They just ship capable models that cover almost everything most of us actually need.
Fable 5, on the other hand, feels like a token eater that is only a slight improvement over Opus 4.8.
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@quxiaoyin There’s a difference between banning models running on Chinese servers and banning open source.
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Banning Chinese open-weights means Chinese labs will continue to distill from U.S models, but U.S labs cannot distill from Chinese models.
- Data acquisition cost for Chinese labs will remain low, sustaining their already thin margins;
- Data acquisition cost for U.S labs will reach all time high, forcing them to increase their pricing even more.
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@HealthRanger Yes, China will have access to the business data of companies that choose to put on Chinese servers for those countries. And everyone will have access to anything that open source and can be run on US servers.
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If Trump moves forward with his reported plan to ban open source AI models out of China, then:
- Brazil will have access to frontier intelligence models, but the USA won't.
- Russia will have access to frontier intelligence models, but the USA won't.
- India will have access...
- Turkey will have access...
- Pakistan will have access...
- Vietnam will have access...
... etc.
But U.S. companies will be forced to use government-approved, dumbed-down, nerfed AI models that are intentionally retarded and incapable of doing much.
So every U.S. corporations of any real size will FIRE their U.S. tech workers, and they'll set up new offices in Brazil, Argentina, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, etc., where they can actually use the world's best AI models (from China), and that's how you'll see a mass exodus of tech jobs away from the USA while the country also loses the AI race to superintelligence.
I call this the "MADA" plan - Make America Dumb Again.
I'm sure Anthropic and OpenAI will push for it.
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@thsottiaux Hoping you’re just getting started. We gotta go past 10 for sure.
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@HealthRanger If we wanna talk about something dumbed down, try asking the Chinese models about Taiwan or Tibet or criticisms of the leader of China.
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@DavidLe76335983 I think the communist part is when you start asking any of the Chinese models about Taiwan or Tibet for example. Or ask them to tell you about the major criticisms of the leader of China. They won’t do it.
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@IamChrisTurner @bindureddy It just depends how you define what America is. Do you mean the government? Or does that include private interests? If you’re including the influence of private America is by far the most powerful in the world.
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I never said the US is weak, I said it doesn’t have as much control as people think. You claimed the US dominates because it controls everything. I’m pointing out that it doesn’t. The dollar’s dominance is artificial and it will lose its status the moment its role as the default currency for oil changes.
Fortunately, the US still has the world’s strongest military, and it isn’t afraid to use it to maintain its position. However, it doesnt control mich outside markets.
I love America but its not the centre of the earth like its people believe. You have beautiful national parks though, I’ll give you that.
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JUST IN: Trump officials are reportedly weighing blocking U.S. access to top Chinese AI models.
Sit with that for a second.
Not "outcompete." not "build something better." block.
You don't call a national security meeting over the models no one uses.
You call one over the model that's beating you.
A year ago Kimi, Qwen and DeepSeek were the cheap thing you reached for when the OpenAI bill got scary.
Now one of them is why there's a meeting on the calendar.
A ban isn't a strategy. it's a scoreboard BTW
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Trump officials are reportedly weighing blocking U.S. access to top Chinese AI models.
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@macastel3 No, open source models will always be available. But what the US will block is access to Chinese servers that are serving up the models from China. Even China is building closed source models now.
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A great firewall seems inevitable for US (modeled in Chinese one)
If the Chinese models flood the market also the capex and stock market will crash
It’s a short term fix but maybe the only one left
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: American companies reportedly use Chinese AI models more than US-made ones
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@IamChrisTurner @bindureddy Go take a look at the largest market in the world, and which country’s money supply is used throughout the world and then come back and tell me the US is weak.
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@phpld @bindureddy Actually, the US control very little. In fact, the only time we hear about the US is when the orange man is making unpredictable moves. In Europe, what they do has little influence. I love the America but please do sit back down.
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The leading AI has already forked into two options.
A: Closed source American that costs $26-56 per 1MM tokens.
B: Open weight Chinese that costs $0.50-1 per 1MM tokens.
If you force American companies to spend 50-100x more than their competitors abroad here is what will happen:
1. American companies spending 50-100x will at some point become financially impaired and the stock market will crater. This is the equivalent of the US Government saying we can only buy oil at $800/barrel even when the free market sells the same oil for $80/barrel.
2. In the short term, the revenues of the Closed American Labs may remain hi. But then their revenue will also crater because their customers in the US will be impaired and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions.
This would be a terribly self-defeating form of intervention if it were to happen.
MTS@MTSlive
SITUATION BREWING: The Trump administration is considering restricting cutting-edge Chinese AI models, with momentum reviving after the launch of Kimi K3, per Axios.
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@APompliano So they can block access to Google on Facebook, but we can’t block their apps?
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