carl

Perfect strategy …business as usual Don’t buy a company expecting a buyout…buy it for their asset VRNA story worked out perfectly after they hired a cco I expect a similar story here Looking forward for safety data on Monday …the rest is just noise

$ABVX mgmt in 1:1s: • CCO hire to be announced on Monday in the earnings PR • Expect to raise post-maint • Not happy with La Lettre; have requested them to stop • Bullish tone re: maint data, but setting a modest bar Still one of the best names with an incredible asset. I’m glad they’re insulating themselves with commercialisation prep, just in case they have to go at it alone.

A few serious/non-memey words on $ABVX for the first time in a while. Nobody knows how much of this M&A rumor smoke coming out of France is real. A deal, if any, could be happening soon, or it could take quite some time. What I do know is that I have never once wavered in my preference for them to wait until after the maintenance data hits to sell the company, because this should help solidify their position and get a higher price (not to mention some potential tax implications). Those who read my pitch on $ABVX back in the day may recall that the incredible strength of Obefazimod's P2b maintenance data was one of my main bull points for the company's odds to hit in P3 induction. Looking back at the efficacy table I assembled in the pitch, we can see that $ABVX's P2b maintenance data blew away....everyone. Every competitor was inferior on this (caveat emptor) cross trial comparison - unlike the induction data. This could reasonably imply that Obefazimod's true strength is actually in its long term/maintenance treatment, with maintenance data being even stronger than (now extremely impressive) induction data. Now, given how incredibly good the P3 induction data ended up being, if the P3 maintenance data take a similar "leap" in efficacy compared to induction...the company might just have the argument of being the most efficacious drug on the market over long term treatment. Keep in mind though, that although the 65% remission rate they saw in P2b comfortably hurdled all the competition (with 2nd place Rinvoq way down at 52% in P3), Obe's remission rate won't be that high in P3 maintenance because this time the trial is blinded, not open label. Still, the point stands - ABVX's maintenance data were the superior/strong point of their P2b dataset. If that also ends up being the case in the P3 dataset, the asking price is going up, full stop. Fine by me if the company waits until post-maintenance data in Q2 to sell. At the very least I would expect them to stay independent through the upcoming ECCO conference in February, where they have ~2 dozen presentations. This will be their first major opportunity since the data came out to really burst onto the scene and market themselves to the GI community at large. *Maybe* a would-be acquirer would want to make buzz by bringing in the asset before that event, but again, my preference is and always has been a post-maintenance deal.

$COGT FDA accepts NDA for Bezuclastinib in Patients with NonAdvanced Systemic Mastocytosis (NonAdvSM) PDUFA 12/30/26