
Ro
369 posts


@BetterIRR Economy is in the gutter drivers dropping coverage, my guess is soft market will fix this. Structural concern is they lost part of $pgr business to RA global + autonomous will in the long run reduce total loss rates even if it spikes in the short term
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What's the story behind $CPRT and it's implosion? Why did growth fall off a cliff?
Fiscal.ai@fiscal_ai
Copart is now in its largest drawdown in more than 15 years. -50.8% from highs. $CPRT
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@YellowCatCap Exactly, never got comfortable with this one considering long term economics of underlying businesses is in decline. This is the worst kind of business model that relies on debt or equity raises to keep the party going
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@TipsyPandaJ What is your estimate of dbox theater penetration? IMAX is single digits. Premium formats are a discretionary spend I would argue quality of earnings is less durable than $CPH.TO
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@roinvests They each have their + & -. Downside for cipher is the expected m&a: timing is unpredictable, integration can be slow, relies on Craig the great allocator.
Vs dbox that has predictable growth imo, with <1% WW screen penetration, and each add needs minimal effort after install.
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@BrownMarubozu @AkibaLeisman Have looked into strathcona since Fairfax is LP, Waterous definitely gives those vibes. I prefer Fairfax between the two as a business purely due to the leverage on the float. Will take a peek at the others thanks!
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@roinvests I’m on the board of $MAKO and $FISH.V. I’m a fan of our CEO / Executive Chairman @AkibaLeisman. I think Adam Waterous is another example at $SCR.TO and $GFR which are also big positions for me. Finally, Duncan Jackman at $ELF.TO.
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@BrownMarubozu @BubleQe Also one of the better hedges against rising rates. They can ride out softening conditions better than most.
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@BubleQe I have never sized anything this big before. The nature of $FFH.TO makes it easier to do b/c it is so diversified and on a look through basis it owns more in fixed income per share than the share price. The 5% coupon on the portfolio is also well above my cost of debt.
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I have a 2% position in $CSU.TO but the CF growth vs stock performance might just be telling us the stock was expensive. Also is an 8% FCF yield that cheap? $FFH.TO is 10-14% and it’s grown BVPS 20%++/yr for 5 years and has shown no signs of slowing. Fairfax is a 50% position.




Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial
Giverny Capital thinks $CSU.TO is way too cheap - Critical, data-rich SaaS that's near impossible to rip out - Switching=data nightmare, so churn is near zero - FCF compounding 18%/yr while the stock barely moves - At 8% fwd FCF yield, mkt pricing in disruption that won't come
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@LDiscernment What’s a price where your comfortable? Pro forma ebitda is 20-22M on a now 300M market cap.
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Latest post on Kingsway $KFS. Man, this is an intriguing company, and I wish it was cheaper.
open.substack.com/pub/kairosrese…

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@SigmondThegrey This is by design they’re leaning into dtc and institutional partners. Implies leaner sales model than door to door. Also no point keeping sales people on the roster if they haven’t found a deal they like yet
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Puzzled by the market’s reaction to $ISSC earnings today.
✅ Backlog at all-time high
✅ Acquisitions integrating smoothly
✅ More M&A clearly coming
✅ Actively investing for future growth
Everything points to strength. Was it just the EBITDA margin dip that spooked everyone?
The company literally said: “The increase in operating expenses reflects investments in R&D, in support of growth initiatives, as well as one-time acquisition-related costs...” very acceptable in my opinion. For a company this size, every growth expense of even $1m can have huge impact on quarterly EBITDA. This is nothing structural.
Management literally told you that there is so much demand, the only issue is their capacity.
Strange reaction. Thanks to the sellers.
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@taobanker Plenty of tourists in this one. Great buying opportunity given long term revenue target.
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@Mufasa_Capital I think we see the j curve kick in this year. 5 more deals would add the cherry on top
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@ValueHunter7 @OutsiderRedmoon Based on the call marketing initiatives yet to kick in. Keep in mind the other angle is Medicaid payor access and unlocking more states is key. I’d rather them do this right than make dumb decisions and destroy value
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$cph.to
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Reports First Quarter Results
MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS For the three months ended March 31, 2026
cipherpharma.com/wp-content/upl…

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@muthuk121 Operating leverage is proven fixed costs were 65% of total. True cash flow run rate adjusted for THP is 20M. Your paying 7-8x for a mid teens grower. Also loved the rational capital allocation of not paying down debt until the April tranche matures.
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@roinvests What your take on the Q4 results and pure surgical play going forward ? Thanks
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“Market is efficient”. Thank you for the shares again $smti
Ro@roinvests
$smti no one wants to buy it at $20 now everyone wants to chase it when it’s higher. Knowing what you own + behavior is an edge.
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@muthuk121 PMPRB limits Epuris price increases relative to generics. I would focus on absolute revenue growth which is a good proxy for volume
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@roinvests Good result from cipher. What’s your thoughts on the declining market share of Epuris?
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@KairosPraxis @valuedrift My concern is less about white space. The problem is capital intensive nature of the business. Capital spending is always justified if it creates nimby or regulatory moats ($ses.to or $buks come to mind). I personally dont see how you avoid constant dilution given linear scale.
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@roinvests @valuedrift Good call. Lots of small competitors in the space as well but TAM is probably large enough for everyone.
x.com/DeepSailCapita…
Deep Sail Capital@DeepSailCapital
@KairosPraxis My biggest fear was always the lack of a moat. There’s other small competitors too that are scaling.
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