Kairos Investment Research ♟️

@SebKrog peak CFA Level I energy

Ultimate guide to canadian stocks: Ends with .TO = potentially buy-able Ends with .V = very likely utter trash

Verily, $FICO hath been cast down from the high places

I wrote an Update on TIC Solutions. open.substack.com/pub/kairosrese…

My early career had a chapter as an investment consultant, flying around the country meeting with fund managers of all stripes. It was an unexpected education on the performance cycle of different investment strategies. A few things stood out. Most funds will only be successful for one bull market. Being paid handsomely to invest a specific way makes it almost impossible to adapt and when there’s a regime change, the fund is left behind. And perhaps more importantly, when the industry is holding conferences dedicated to an investment style/approach, the best days are almost certainly behind it. I’ll stop short of naming today’s “it” strategy. But if the suggestion makes investors uncomfortable, it’s even more likely to be true.

$FTAI

Added to $FTAI

@MrBlobby89 Whether planned or not, I think the departure was perceived as a not good, as it came with underwhelming results.

is the CEO departure that bad. He's 60. Taken at face value comments from Franklin indicate it was the plan all along. Ben is 44 much longer run way. Regarding growth etc. it's all short term stuff. The business is not impaired. The dramatic decline is not that surprising imo. the marginal shareholder here are the citrini pump and dumpers who thought this was AI explosion. It never was. Issuing shares at $12 and buying them back at $7 is great for LT shareholders. Trades at 8x now. Time to add.

A few thoughts on $TIC The market dumped this stock over a few key things, but the primary reason was undoubtedly the unexpected departure of the CEO Secondarily was the slightly negative organic growth + slight margin compression. Some of this is due to intentionally walking away from low margin business (gulf coast) None of these individually would cause a 15% - 18% drop IMO, but together they push back on the core investment thesis that the Acuren/NV5 combination would create an $APG-like scaled, margin-expanding, compounding platform. The $200M buyback announced March 10 may have been intended to provide a floor, but it’s clearly not enough to offset the concerns surfaced today. The fact that they announced the buyback two days before earnings suggests management may have anticipated a negative market reaction. The story is not broken, but the integration is messier and slower than the market expected, and losing the CEO right now is not a good look.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ There are a few positives notes; 1. The NV5 segments, Geospatial and Consulting Engineering, are really growing, and they benefited from data center strength and infrastructure demand. These are much higher-margin businesses. CE at 47% adj gross margin, and Geospatial at ~57%. over time they will pull the blended margin higher as they scale. 2. Full year 2025 free cash flow was $61.2 million, compared to negative $4.5 million in 2024. 3. The synergy program is real and quantified 4. The company has guided to $330 - 355m in EBITDA for 2026. On revenue guidance, that implies margin expansion to 15.3% - 15.8%, most of which flows from the synergy program. The rest of the program should be realized next year. As for me, unfortunately my position is down 35%. I am bummed, but that’s life. I have not made a decision yet, but I will likely consider trimming, while keeping a position to track the company.

Great YAVB podcast with Will Cleary on $FTAI. Details everything one would need to know. Long: $160 youtu.be/VmeZA_gnhHo?si…

@DrewCohenMoney I’m not sure I can ask. Are you tying to get a sense of how Amazon competes?

@LDiscernment Does she (or her friends back home) use Meli and Amazon?

Curious if I have any South American followers that have used Mercado Libre and/or Shopee. What platform do you prefer? Do you use both, but for different things?

It is better to mistake skill for luck than to mistake luck for skill.

@david_katunaric Almost as annoying as gold investors.

By far the most annoying trait of stubbornly long oil investors is how excited they get at turbulent times like these ...when you should probably be anything but excited.

DOJ complain against US Salt (Which $LOGC just acquired): “Together, Morton and US Salt would have a monopoly in the United States and Canada for pharmaceutical-grade salt, the purest grade of evaporated salt, which is used to make life-saving treatments and products for patients in need of dialysis fluid, intravenous saline solution, or other medical products.”

@Restructuring__ I am not cool

I love this Such a good reminder we are all mediocre You think you’re cool because you work in MF PE? Look here. You think you’re cool because you work at a top SM? Someone founded one at 24 You think you’re cool because you have a small business? Look what he has done Always great to be humble

Added 63 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1): @FluentInQuality - $LOTB.BR, $TAM.L, $NEDAP.AS, $LMN.V, $AI.PA, $CPRT, $ADYEN.AS @sprucepointcap - $NVA.AX (short) @stonkmetal - $MELI @ValueEric - $WGR.AX @sammutgabi - $CCLD (update) @LDiscernment - $APG (update)

@komodo_capital agreed

@LDiscernment Extremely high quality mgmt

Despite missing expectations, I’m impressed that $FTAI will be doing 100 FTAI power units by next year. I had modeled a ramp up with 100 units by 2028.

@thescepticalre1 Yea, That would be ideal!

@LDiscernment Great! I hope Franklin and gang can repeat their success with TIC!

Here is a short update of $APG The summary: The company has done extraordinarily well since I acquired shares 16 months ago. Management continues to execute, and the market continues to pay up for quality. open.substack.com/pub/kairosrese…

I pitched $MAMA in 2023 at $4. I took a tiny tracker position, then sold it because im dumb. Sigh... open.substack.com/pub/kairosrese…

@dipinvest @MicroCapClub I wrote about this in December 2023 and passed, ive been sulking ever since. open.substack.com/pub/kairosrese…

When I started buying $MAMA shares under $2, I never imagined that in less than three years it would be trading above $17. I know investors within @MicroCapClub who have a position in the company. Congratulations to everyone!